US Election Prediction Thread

[GGG]

Post your US Election Predictions here

Electoral College results -
Who takes White House as president -
Popular Vote results -
Senate split-
House split

Swing State Winners
Arizona
Georgia
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Any other Upset you want to predict

And a brief summary of your rational.

You can also fill out and embed a picture of your map here
https://www.270towin.com/

[nfotiu]

Post your US Election Predictions here

Electoral College results - 283-255
Who takes White House as president - Harris
Popular Vote results - 51-49 Harris
Senate split- 51-49 GOP
House split - 230-205 Dem

Swing State Winners
Arizona - Trump
Georgia - Harris
Michigan - Harris
Nevada - Trump
North Carolina - Harris
Pennsylvania - Trump
Wisconsin - Harris with a recount

Any other Upset you want to predict

And a brief summary of your rational.
I have no good feeling one way or another and will be surprised if either wins. I think Harris will overperform in states like NC/VA/GA where a lot of republicans hate Trump and black voters will get out to vote, but underperform in the rustbelt and south west.


You can also fill out and embed a picture of your map here
Post your US Election Predictions here

Electoral College results -
Who takes White House as president -
Popular Vote results -
Senate split-
House split

Swing State Winners
Arizona
Georgia
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Any other Upset you want to predict

And a brief summary of your rational.

You can also fill out and embed a picture of your map here

[Paulie Walnuts]

Trump 538
Harris 0

The numbers are nasty Trump has seen them

[Ozy_Flame]

The fact this isn't a landslide and this game of "guess the razor thin margins" is even a thing gives me no hope for the future. Ugh.

[Locke]

This is going to be contentious. I am not looking forward to this one.

[GGG]

Electoral College results - 270-268 - Trump
Who takes White House as president - Trump
Popular Vote results - 50.1% Harris, 48.9 Trump, 1% Stein/other
Senate split- 48, 1, 51 - Osborn wins Nebraska
House split - 220-215 Republican

Swing State Winners
Arizona - Harris
Georgia - Trump
Michigan - Harris
Nevada - Harris
North Carolina - Trump
Pennsylvania - Trump
Wisconsin - Harris

Polling bias of .5% for the republicans except for areas with abortion measures on the ballot which swing 3 points Democrat. This results in a Trump win 270/268. Hope I’m wrong


Map

Spoiler!

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/gZ6Ad

[GirlySports]

I have the same map as GGG 271 Trump 267 Harris

Just AZ and NV to Trump and NC to Harris

[Senator Clay Davis]

I got a late upset with Meteor coming down to provide an undisputed winner.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

The fact this isn't a landslide and this game of "guess the razor thin margins" is even a thing gives me no hope for the future. Ugh.

It hasnt happened yet

IMO Trump is losing by a much larger amount than anticipated. Polls and odds were rigged.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by dino7c

It hasnt happened yet

IMO Trump is losing by a much larger amount than anticipated. Polls and odds were rigged.

Razor thin means she’s not smoking him and could only win be a few votes in some places.

[JBR]

Electoral College results - 283-255


Who takes White House as president - Trump

Popular Vote results - 51-49 Harris thanks to the west coast

Senate split- 52-48 GOP

House split - 218-217 Democrat



Swing State Winners


Arizona - Trump

Georgia - Trump

Michigan - Harris

Nevada - Trump

North Carolina - Trump

Pennsylvania - Trump

Wisconsin - Harris



Any other upset you want to predict - No upsets. Trump underperforms in the early polling and the election is called “fairly” early at 12:30am. Georgia returns should be quick thanks to the rules around their early vote counting.



And a brief summary of your rational.


I don’t have a preference, although, a Trump win will make for better TV over the next 4 years. I also think people over estimate the value of the celebrity influence. When it comes down to it, do people really care how Beyoncé and Harrison Ford vote? If so, it’s a sad state of affairs. Trump always underperforms in polling and if they are calling it a dead heat.. I’d rather be in his position tonight. In 2016 he was behind over 4 points in the aggregate the night before, behind in every poll. In 2020 he was 8.4 points behind Biden the night before and lost by only 3.5. Harris needs the gap to be at least 4. Being even or 1 point ahead is nothing considering she’ll run up the score in only a few heavily populated states.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Spoiler tagging the images would be nice.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Razor thin means she’s not smoking him and could only win be a few votes in some places.

Thanks tips


Orange loser is losing bigly

[topfiverecords]

I’ll be surprised if Trump doesn’t win. ‘Merica

[DoubleK]

Zero chance Trump wins the election.

I'd be shocked if there is a winner tomorrow. There will be weeks of rhetoric and BS.

The only good thing is that the election ads will stop.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Electoral College results - Trump
Who takes White House as president - Trump
Popular Vote results - 51% Harris
Senate split - 51-49 R
House split - 219-216 D

Swing State Winners
Arizona - T
Georgia - T
Michigan - H
Nevada - H
North Carolina - T
Pennsylvania - T
Wisconsin - H

Desperately hoping I am wrong...

[MegaErtz]

Trump wins:
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Nevada (narrowly)
North Carolina
and crucially, Pennsylvania in a squeaker

Harris wins:
Michigan (mostly due to Bill Clinton's work there over the last month)
New Hampshire
Virginia
Wisconsin

Obviously Harris wins the popular vote, and a record is set for turnout.

Harris wins Bucks County, PA.
Trump wins Erie County, PA.
Harris wins Kent County, MI, comfortably.
Trump wins Pinellas County, FL, very comfortably.
Harris wins Maricopa County, AZ, by a tiny margin.

I think the final electoral count will be 287-251 for Trump. Very hopeful that Harris can somehow pull it off in Pennsylvania to win 270-268.

[bluejays]

I'm not into politics, but what's interesting about this one is people are super passionate about supporting Trump or being against him. I don't think a lot of people truly love Kamala. They just don't like Trump. Not exactly a great endorsement.


Personally I wish Americans got away from this quasi-celeb obsession with people running for office. Both these candidates are bums if you ask me. Neither would be particularly good at running an economy. Bring forth a nerd.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Electoral College results - 276-262
Who takes White House as president - Harris
Popular Vote results - 53% Harris
Senate split- 50/50
House split - 220/215 Democrats

Swing State Winners
Arizona - Trump
Georgia - Trump
Michigan - Harris
Nevada - Trump
North Carolina - Trump
Pennsylvania - Harris
Wisconsin - Harris

Iowa does indeed go to Harris to give her some breathing room.

Women save the day for America. Their votes give the edge to Harris and send the felon/rapist/racist home forever.

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Electoral College results - 276-262
Who takes White House as president - Harris
Popular Vote results - 53% Harris
Senate split- 50/50
House split - 220/215 Democrats

Swing State Winners
Arizona - Trump
Georgia - Trump
Michigan - Harris
Nevada - Trump
North Carolina - Trump
Pennsylvania - Harris
Wisconsin - Harris

Iowa does indeed go to Harris to give her some breathing room.

Women save the day for America. Their votes give the edge to Harris and send the felon/rapist/racist home forever.

Senate 50/50? What are you smoking? There is literally no way Jon Tester wins in Montana. Jim Justice is going to win Joe Manchin's seat in West Virginia by thirty points!