The Flames Draft Pick Watch

[TheIronMaiden]

This thread is to give bad juju to the Devils and Panthers to secure the best picks possible.

The Flames look like they will get picks somewhere between 18th and 32nd.

With that in mind I looked back at the 1st round to see how often a top 6 forward can be found in the back 3rd of the draft


NHL forwards picked between 18-32 who became top 6 players.


2005
24th TJ Oshie 1010 GP 695 Pts

2006
22nd Claude Giroux 1260 GP 1115 Pts

2007
22nd Max Pacioretty 939 GP 681Pts
26th David Perron 1171 GP 784 Pts

2008
22nd Jordan Eberle 1057 GP 725 Pts

2009
19th Chris Kreider 878 GP 577 Pts
33rd Ryan O’Reilly 1148 GP 817 Pts
Breaks the rules I know

2010
30th Brock Nelson 917 GP 585 Pts

2011
30th Rickard Rakell 799 GP 517 Pts

2012
18th Teuvo Teravainen 748 GP 516 Pts

2013
23rd Andre Burakovsky 693 GP 386Pts

2014
18th Alex Touch 531GP 378 PTs
25th David Pastrnak 753 GP 827 Pts
20th Nick Schmaltz 584 GP 420 Pts

2015
23rd Brock Boeser 550 GP 433 Pts
24th Travis Konecny 641 GP 474 Pts

2016
26th Tage Thompson 443 GP 324 Pts

2017
20th Robert Thomas 463 GP 391 Pts

2018
None


*We are now entering the territory where it is less clear what these players will become*


2019
25th Connor McMichael 232 gp 106 Pts

2020
18th Dawson Mercer 324 GP 163 Pts
24th Connor Zary 117 GP 61 Pts
26th Jake Neighbours 208 GP 95pts

2021
23rd Wyatt Johnston 242 GP 175 Pts

2022
28th Jiri Kulich 58 GP 22Pts


After this there just aren’t many players who’ve played more than 10 games.

[FBI]

Devils aren't looking too good so looks like we are going to get a pick somewhere around 18-20 with theirs?

[Bandwagon Surfer]

So if I get that right, the 18-32 range means we are looking at 14 picks per year. Looking at 2005-2018 since it gets more uncertain past that, we end up with 14 years or 196 picks with 18 top six players found (including the 33nd bonus to make the numbers look better). Giving us a 9.18% success rate.

Using this from the Flames perspective, the chance we hit at least 1 too six player with the two picks would be: each pick having a 90.82% chance of not getting a top six forward, so 90.82% × 90.82% = 82.48% change of missing both, giving us a 17.52% chance of getting at least one.

But that is not taking into account things like the quality of the draft or team drafting ability. So it is more masturbatory math, but still a rough idea of the odds.

[looooob]

I guess re: the above those 14 slots (between 18-32) also included drafted Dmen, goalies and (wasted picks but still ) 'depth/character forwards'


so I don't think it's quite fair to say (although maybe it is because the Flames are clearly needing top 6 forwards) that that is the hit rate of a successful pick in those slots?

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by looooob

I guess re: the above those 14 slots (between 18-32) also included drafted Dmen, goalies and (wasted picks but still ) 'depth/character forwards'


so I don't think it's quite fair to say (although maybe it is because the Flames are clearly needing top 6 forwards) that that is the hit rate of a successful pick in those slots?

To be honest, I avoided counting D men, because it is so subjective. You've got Hall of famers like John Carlson in this range, but it gets fuzzy after that if you're looking purely at counting stats.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by looooob

I guess re: the above those 14 slots (between 18-32) also included drafted Dmen, goalies and (wasted picks but still ) 'depth/character forwards'


so I don't think it's quite fair to say (although maybe it is because the Flames are clearly needing top 6 forwards) that that is the hit rate of a successful pick in those slots?

Correct. I think you need to exclude all picks that were not forwards.

But in looking at the list, there are really only 3 difference makers there.

Giroux, O'Reilly and Pastrnak.

[looooob]

minor random point re: 2018 draft


eeesh. after Miller at 22 the 'best' pick in the entire draft- by games played , goals or points is Sharangovich at 141. Sharangovich and Farabee are 3rd and 4th for goals scored in that draft

[1991 Canadian]

New Jersey has been a fun but frustrating team to watch slide. They had a hot start, but they have the 25th best record in 2025. They are barely treading water into the playoffs.

Frustratingly none of the Rangers, Isles, Jackets, Pens and Flyers could not take advantage of this. Would have been great to see New Jersey pushed out of the playoffs.

I normally have nothing against NJ, but a first round exit would be ideal at this point.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

To be honest, I avoided counting D men, because it is so subjective. You've got Hall of famers like John Carlson in this range, but it gets fuzzy after that if you're looking purely at counting stats.

oh I understood why you didn't count the Dmen- just meant that needs to be factored into Bandwagon's math. either way the message is fairly similar. there aren't a tonne of superstars in the back half of the 1st round (doesn't mean those picks aren't important to franchise building)

[TheIronMaiden]

Here is a list of elite forwards found outside of the 1st round since 2025

44th Paul Stastny
71st Brad Marchand
129 Jamie Benn
178 Mark Stone
58th Nikita Kucherov
104th John Gaudreau
77th Jake Guentzel
79th Brayden Point
35 Sebastian Aho
135 Kirill Kaprizov
39th Alexander Debrincat
162th Jasper Bratt
39th Jason Robertson

[Bongsong]

Originally Posted by looooob

minor random point re: 2018 draft


eeesh. after Miller at 22 the 'best' pick in the entire draft- by games played , goals or points is Sharangovich at 141. Sharangovich and Farabee are 3rd and 4th for goals scored in that draft

Didn’t expect that

[Yanda]

Originally Posted by looooob

minor random point re: 2018 draft


eeesh. after Miller at 22 the 'best' pick in the entire draft- by games played , goals or points is Sharangovich at 141. Sharangovich and Farabee are 3rd and 4th for goals scored in that draft

Yeah but that draft was insanely loaded with offensive defensemen.. Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Bouchard, Dobson, Miller, Sandin, Durzi, Addison..

[Jay Random]

A nice thing about the Devils' pick: It's mathematically impossible for them to win their division, so the pick isn't going to be in that 25-28 range for division winners who missed the conference finals. If they don't make the final four, they stay right where they are based on the standings.

Unfortunately, Florida still has a chance to win the Atlantic. Fortunately, they're behind the Leafs and Lightning and both those teams have a game in hand, so it's a fairly long shot.

[GreenLantern2814]

The simulator toy I looked at today had Montreal picking 16th with our pick and then Calgary getting 18 and 22.

If a two spot penalty in the middle of the first round was all this season cost us, I’d say that’s well worth it.

[MegaErtz]

Serious question here. How come no NHL team ever trades a ton of picks to acquire a top five pick? I'd love for us to trade every pick in this year's draft, including all three first rounders, for a top three pick.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

The simulator toy I looked at today had Montreal picking 16th with our pick and then Calgary getting 18 and 22.

If a two spot penalty in the middle of the first round was all this season cost us, I’d say that’s well worth it.

In that range it's almost always an issue of which club like which player, with no clear better player. Very rarely would you see two clubs fighting for the same player at spot 16-18. So there may be no actual difference in the player the flames would have chosen, if it does come down to a two spot difference.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Serious question here. How come no NHL team ever trades a ton of picks to acquire a top five pick? I'd love for us to trade every pick in this year's draft, including all three first rounders, for a top three pick.

If we had a top 3 pick would you love it if we traded it for a bunch of lower picks?

A single top 3 pick is worth more than all our total picks in terms of expected value.

[Gallick]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Serious question here. How come no NHL team ever trades a ton of picks to acquire a top five pick? I'd love for us to trade every pick in this year's draft, including all three first rounders, for a top three pick.

This was reportedly offered by the Islanders back in 2012 at the draft to acquire... Ryan Murray.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Serious question here. How come no NHL team ever trades a ton of picks to acquire a top five pick? I'd love for us to trade every pick in this year's draft, including all three first rounders, for a top three pick.

Didn’t the flames reportedly try this for the MacKinnon pick?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Didn’t the flames reportedly try this for the MacKinnon pick?

Yes, IIRC it was 6th OA, 22nd OA and 28th OA for 1st OA

Avs smartly declined.