The Human Security Report

[Cowperson]

A new report on human security indicates a precipitous drop in armed conflicts, deaths, etc since the fall of communism.

http://www.humansecurityreport.info/

The raw statistics page

http://www.humansecurityreport.info/...d=31&Itemid=66

A commentary from a Canadian Human Security official in the Washington Post this morning:

The Human Security Report, an independent study funded by five countries and published by Oxford University Press, draws on a wide range of little publicized scholarly data, plus specially commissioned research to present a portrait of global security that is sharply at odds with conventional wisdom.

The report reveals that after five decades of inexorable increase, the number of armed conflicts started to fall worldwide in the early 1990s. The decline has continued.

By 2003, there were 40 percent fewer conflicts than in 1992. The deadliest conflicts -- those with 1,000 or more battle-deaths -- fell by some 80 percent. The number of genocides and other mass slaughters of civilians also dropped by 80 percent, while core human rights abuses have declined in five out of six regions of the developing world since the mid-1990s.

International terrorism is the only type of political violence that has increased. Although the death toll has jumped sharply over the past three years, terrorists kill only a fraction of the number who die in wars.

What accounts for the extraordinary and counterintuitive improvement in global security over the past dozen years? The end of the Cold War, which had driven at least a third of all conflicts since World War II, appears to have been the single most critical factor.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...122700732.html

As I've noted often, the world is indeed a vastly different place since the fall of Communism and the end of proxy conflicts.

Less dangerous though? What is your opinion?

Cowperson

[Gord Wappel]

It seems a significant and reasonably credible first time effort. I wonder why I haven't heard it mentioned elsewhere.
Can't say I read it entirely but wanted to thank you for posting and want to comment;.

Besides the end of cold war the effect of the ending of most colonization was cited (page 8) as significant:

"By the early 1980s the wars of liberation from colonial rule, which had accounted for 60% to 100% of all inter-national wars fought since the early 1950s, had virtually ended. With the demise of colonialism, a major driver of warfare around the world—one that had caused 81 wars since 1816—simply ceased to exist."

I personally think the increase in global communication (cheaper long distance, internet, more television cameras) has made it harder (but clearly not impossible) for leaders to beat war drums and fool their citizens to attack other nations (for the usual reason of increasing their personal wealth and power).

As for your question about safer ? Not really, because as the report mentions technology is empowering individuals who unlike nations may not fear retribution for massive damage. Result; I feel less safe travelling than say 20 years ago because there are more armed individuals totally unmotivated to follow North American like rules .

Other evidence (as if necessary); A recent small arms survey by the graduate institute of international study in Geneva shows that trade in civilian arms recently surpassed that of military small arms.

The Human Security report states "Over the long term the evidence suggests that the risk of civil war is reduced by equitable economic growth, increased state capacity and inclusive democracy."

My opinion is that the current administration of the sole remaining superpower has, contrary to their stated ideology, significantly moved the global distribution of real wealth and power into the hands of fewer..Such instability usually leads to revolution, bloody reprisals, civil wars.

The report concludes: “Here the evidence suggests the main driver of change has been the extraordinary-nary upsurge of activism by the international community that has been directed toward conflict prevention, peacemaking and peace building.”

But now the Bush admin has been clamping down independent activism, and information dissemination and has shown little support for previous international agreements

Hope I am wrong, but unless there is a change in the manner that the remaining superpower implements its ideology, the decrease in violence may be like the calm before the storm. The force building up in tectonic plates before the earthquake. ..... oh, and Happy New Year !!

“The Human Security Report 2006 will provide a more detailed analysis of these trends and the data that support them. It will also examine the counter-trends that, if not addressed, may pose a major threat to global security in the long term. “

I wouldn’t mind seeing that.