“Make it to the playoffs an anything could happen"

[TheIronMaiden]

“Buy a ticket and make it to the dance” “Make it to the playoffs an anything could happen” How true are these statements? I have conducted an historical quantitative analysis of past Stanley Cup Champions starting in 2006 and the beginning of the salary cap era. I have somewhat arbitrarily titled teams that finished outside of the top 8 in the regular season “underdogs”. It is important to keep in mind that the top 16 teams do not always make the playoffs because the of the various qualification formats. 8 is, ultimately, a number chosen out of convivence to represent the correlation between championships and regular season play.

Obviously, hockey is not a deterministic sport and the playoffs in the NHL are notoriously competitive. Nevertheless, an historic analysis of Stanley cup champions proves that a team who finishes the in top 8 in the regular season wins the Stanley Cup much more often. This should not be a surprise, the best teams in the league naturally are more likely to win.

Instead, our focus instead should be, how often does an underdog team win it all? The answer at first glance is simple, since the salary cap, a team outside of the top 8 has only won the cup 3 times. However, can we really consider the 2014 Kings who finished 9th in the NHL an underdog, having just won the cup two years earlier? With that in mind, in 18 years an underdog has only won the penultimate championship twice. The 2012 Kings and the 2019 Blues.

What if we look deeper? How often does a so-called Cinderella team push themselves into the fourth round? 13 of the last 36 finalists finished their regular season outside of the top 8. Once again, we see that higher seed teams make the finals more often. Interestingly, both King’s victories occurred against teams seeded outside of the top 8. The New Jersey Devils 9th and The New York Rangers 12th. This supports the argument that the 2014, the Kings were not underdogs being a higher seed than the Rangers. There are two more teams of that thirteen worth a closer look. The 2020 and 2021 years were not ordinary playoffs or regular seasons. In those two seasons we saw 2 team that were not in the top 8 make the final. There is no historic value in debating if a normal season/ playoffs would garner a difference, though it needs to be acknowledged that it adds a layer of complexity.

Finally, lets look at how often the higher seed in the finals wins. 12/18 times the higher placed team after the regular season wins the Stanley cup finals. The greatest upset being the 12th rank blues beating the 3rd rank Bruins. Otherwise a 7th vs 5th split like 2015 and 2018 were more common.

In conclusion, teams outside of the top 8 in the regular season, historically do not win the Stanley cup very often. With that in mind, just get in and see what happens is not a sustainable and viable strategy for championship contention. The Kings for example, won both of their championships outside of the top 8, though their trajectory suggests that they were a young team that underperformed in the regular season. The Blues, the other example were a chaotic team who suffered horribly at the beginning of their championship season. With this in mind, a look into the trajectory of team’s individual may be more worth while than this analysis. Is just making the playoffs inherently bad? No of course not. The experience may influence cumulative success. No doubt Tampa Bay learned many hard lessons from early exists in previous years. Though it is worth mentioning that 11 of the 13 teams that ranked lower that 8th have not returned to the finals in this time frame.



2006 Carolina 4th Losers Edmonton 14th
2007 Anaheim Ducks 4th Runner up Ottawa Senators 9th
2008 Detroit Red Wings 1st Runner up Pittsburgh Penguins 5th
2009 Pittsburgh Penguins 8th Runner up Detroit Red Wings 3rd
2010 Chicago Blackhawks 3rd Runner up Philadelphia Flyers 18th
2011 Boston Bruins 7th Runner up Vancouver Canucks 1st
2012 Los Angeles Kings 13th Runner up New Jersey Devils 9th
2013 Chicago Blackhawks 1st Runner up Boston Bruins 5th
2014 Los Angeles Kings 9th Runner up New York Rangers 12th
2015 Chicago Blackhawks 7th Runner up Tampa Bay Lightning 5th
2016 Pittsburgh Penguins 4th Runner up San Jose Sharks 11th
2017 Pittsburgh Penguins 2nd Runner up Nashville Predators 17th
2018 Washington Capitals 7th Runner up Vegas Golden Knights 5th
2019 St. Louis Blues 12th Runner up Boston Bruins 3rd
2020 Tampa Bay Lightning 3rd Runner up Dallas Stars 10th
2021 Tampa Bay Lightning 8th Runner up Montreal Canadiens 18th
2022 Colorado Avalanche 2nd Runner up Tampa Bay Lightning 8th
2023 Vegas Golden Knights 4th Runner up Florida Panthers 17th


Number of times a team outside of the top 4 has made the Stanley Cup Finals.
23/ 36
Number of times a team outside of the top 4 has won the Stanley Cup.
8 /18
Number of times a team outside of the top 8 has made the Stanley Cup Finals
13/36
Number of times a team outside of the top 8 has won the Stanley cup Finals
3/18

[taxbuster]

"Just make it to the playoffs so the owners can make an extra million or so per game."

[Jason14h]

Was St.L really an underdog ? After Bennington came up and started they had one of the best records in the NHL and just continued into the playoffs - similar to the Flames in 04.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Was St.L really an underdog ? After Bennington came up and started they had one of the best records in the NHL and just continued into the playoffs - similar to the Flames in 04.

I would say yes, they missed the playoffs the year before, but were, a good team for 4 years previous to that gap. They didn't exactly come from no where, so I see you point.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by taxbuster

"Just make it to the playoffs so the owners can make an extra million or so per game."

Seriously seems to be what motivates this team from the top.

[14Roman14]

Teams that won the cup who did not qualify for the playoffs
0/18

I’ll take the 3/18 odds over 0/18. Playoff hockey is fun. Way more fun than crossing your fingers for the draft lottery because we were so bad.

Great post though with some very good information.

I am so glad this team hasn’t blown it up and is trying to win every year. I remember the days of the young guns where all our good players were being shopped to USA teams and the young guys were the saviours. Except many of our high picks didn’t materialize into stars due to bad luck or injuries or they just weren’t as good as hyped. It took a lot of years to get the we will win at all costs attitude and I never want to go away from that.
I would definitely prefer them to try and make the dance and who knows over let’s suck and be bottom 4 in the league for 10 years still crossing our fingers that we might hit and be good. However if we do that and don’t hit, then we are still brutal and instead of for 4 years it could be 10 to 15. Always try to win if you have the resources and sometime if you make the dance you could have the stars align and go on a run, hopefully winning.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

LOL, this thread is going to generate so much animosity. I can't wait for the show.

[Flamesfan05]

Conclusion: need Sutter back for anything can happen

[NegativeSpace]

Honestly, the original post demonstrates that the attitude of just getting in isn't the worst operational framework. I expected the statistics to be far more favoured towards the higher end teams that was produced.

[blankall]

You also need to look at where things are trending. The actual affects, and the intended parity, from the salary cap wasn't instantaneous. They took many years to come into effect, and we are just really seeing them in the last few years. Another issue is the new draft rules. Teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago do not exist anymore. Pittsburgh isn't drafting Crosby, Staal, Malkin, and Fleury in succession under the new rules.

If the Flames make it to the playoffs, I see no reason they couldn't take out teams like Vancouver, Florida, Winnipeg, NYR, etc..

This year especially we are going to see a lot of previously inconsistent teams at the top of the regular season standings. Coming in at 8th, means a likely matchup against Vancouver or Winnipeg in the first round, teams that the Flames could take down. The two best teams in the West are likely Colorado and Vegas, but they are both so inconsistent this year, they aren't even likely to finish at the top of the standings.

[Reggie Dunlop]

The Flames are overwhelming underdogs.

[cdnsir]

This should definitely the strategy for this season. Caveat being, do so with a skeleton crew after offloading all pending UFAs before the deadline.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Was St.L really an underdog ? After Bennington came up and started they had one of the best records in the NHL and just continued into the playoffs - similar to the Flames in 04.

I mean IF the Flames make the playoffs they will have one of the best records after November

they are already top 10 in that time

[nik-]

Personally I'd rather go in as a top dog and beat the piss out of everyone.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by blankall

You also need to look at where things are trending. The actual affects, and the intended parity, from the salary cap wasn't instantaneous. They took many years to come into effect, and we are just really seeing them in the last few years. Another issue is the new draft rules. Teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago do not exist anymore. Pittsburgh isn't drafting Crosby, Staal, Malkin, and Fleury in succession under the new rules.

If the Flames make it to the playoffs, I see no reason they couldn't take out teams like Vancouver, Florida, Winnipeg, NYR, etc..

This year especially we are going to see a lot of previously inconsistent teams at the top of the regular season standings. Coming in at 8th, means a likely matchup against Vancouver or Winnipeg in the first round, teams that the Flames could take down. The two best teams in the West are likely Colorado and Vegas, but they are both so inconsistent this year, they aren't even likely to finish at the top of the standings.

Yeah nobody is "scary good" anymore

Flames or no Flames the playoffs will be a lot of tossups

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by nik-

Personally I'd rather go in as a top dog and beat the piss out of everyone.

LA did that one time...as an 8th seed lol

too much parity these days

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by 14Roman14

I’ll take the 3/18 odds over 0/18.

Wrong answer. There are no 3/18 odds and the Flames have never had 3/18 odds in the last 33 years (with '04 being the one exception). So the odds for this team have been more like 1/33 or something in that ballpark.

The 2 Kings teams had Sutter, who utilizes a system that is specifically meant for playoff success, and the correct type of roster construction that is suited for that system.

The Blues had the hottest goalie in the world for 6 months and one of the best records in the league in the 2nd half of that season.

So these are special circumstances that have never applied to the Flames, outside of '04.

[Macho0978]

This comes up every year and so many say bottom teams do well in the playoffs. But we are ranking teams based on there regular season position that year. If you look into it alot of the bottom teams had poor regular season but went on from that season to be a top team most years.

Injuries can play a part in regular season rank too.

The worst winning percent for a stanly cup winning team in the last 25 years.

Kings, Hawks, Bruins and Penguins have the worst 5 (both LA cups)

Only 1 time has a team won the cup and failed to get a .600 pt percent. (LA)

Each year the top contenders to win the cup aren't always 1-4 ranks in each conference.

Sorry, they flames have 0 chance at a cup this year

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Wrong answer. There are no 3/18 odds and the Flames have never had 3/18 odds in the last 33 years (with '04 being the one exception). So the odds for this team have been more like 1/33 or something in that ballpark.

The 2 Kings teams had Sutter, who utilizes a system that is specifically meant for playoff success, and the correct type of roster construction that is suited for that system.

The Blues had the hottest goalie in the world for 6 months and one of the best records in the league in the 2nd half of that season.

So these are special circumstances that have never applied to the Flames, outside of '04.

IF the Flames make the playoffs they will have both these things though

they are 8th since December, Markstom is on fire

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by dino7c

IF the Flames make the playoffs they will have both these things though

they are 8th since December, Markstom is on fire

Sure, but the odds are very much against the Flames maintaining this for the rest of the season. Really, any team that goes on a hot streak can say "all we have to do is maintain this and we're good!" But the reality is that it very seldom happens.