The Stretch Before Jan 1

[SuperMatt18]

The Flames have played 18 games to this date, and have 18 remaining before Jan 1.

And so far it's been a really mixed bag:

First 9 Games: 2-6-1

5v5 Stats: 31.4% GF, 50.9 xGF, 5.2% SH, .875 SV% (0-4 for Andersson's suspension)

Last 9 Games: 5-2-2

5v5 Stats: 57% GF, 52.8% xGF, 9.68% SH, .911 SV%

So a but unlucky over the first 9, and really seemed to struggle in the new system especially without Andersson. But playing better over the last 9, and getting a bit more puck luck too.

But these next 18 Games are going to really determine the Flames direction this season I think...and it's a bit of a Murders row of a schedule.

Next 9 Games: Preds, Stars, Avalanche (B2B), Knights, Stars, Canucks, Wild, Hurricanes, Devils

Final 9 Games Before Jan 1: Avalanche, Knights (B2B), Wild, Lightning, Panthers, Ducks, Kings, Kraken, Flyers,

Avs x 2, Knights x 2, Stars x 2, Canucks, Kings, Panthers, Lightning, Hurricanes, Devils, Flyers

Those 10 teams are a combined 109-54-14...and 13 of the next 18 games are against that group.

Seattle, Preds, Wild, and Ducks are only easier matchups in this final 18 game stretch before 2024.

If the Flames can somehow keep their head above water in this stretch, and get to Jan 1st around .500 or slightly above .500 then they probably are right in the playoff mix.

But this schedule over the next 6 weeks is going to be killer.

[Kipper_3434]

I would call Vancouver a bit of an easier game despite their record.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

I would call Vancouver a bit of an easier game despite their record.

As a Canucks hater I would love to say that...but when you are 13-5-1 and have the 3 leading scorers in the NHL it's tough to call it an easier game.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

As a Canucks hater I would love to say that...but when you are 13-5-1 and have the 3 leading scorers in the NHL it's tough to call it an easier game.

It's not, though.

That team is on an historic PDO heater, and the Flames just absolutely ragdolled them. I am pretty certain the Canucks are making the playoffs after a stellar start, but that team is paper tiger, and the holes are showing.

Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

[Ashes]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It's not, though.

That team is on an historic PDO heater, and the Flames just absolutely ragdolled them. I am pretty certain the Canucks are making the playoffs after a stellar start, but that team is paper tiger, and the holes are showing.

Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

It's funny how the 2014 Flames were PDO darlings all season and the pundits loved to remind us how unsustainable it was (fair enough), but yet it's hardly mentioned with the Canucks this season. I think they're a good team with some top tier players, but they're not THIS good without that PDO.

I agree, they will probably hit the wall at some point with their shooting percentages. Demko on the other hand.. he is the real deal, I'd like to see how we do against him next time we play them. Their defense outside of Hughes also leaves a lot to be desired IMO.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Ashes

...Demko on the other hand.. he is the real deal, I'd like to see how we do against him next time we play them. Their defense outside of Hughes also leaves a lot to be desired IMO.

Demko's numbers v. Calgary are not fantastic. 5-5-3, 3.01 GAA, 0.905 SP.

In his last three seasons: 4-5-3, 3.09 GAA, 0.904 SP.

Markstrom v. Vancouver, on the other hand?
11-3-2, 2.36 GAA, 0.916 SP.

[Vinny01]

I was optimistic this team was going to bounce back based on some of the apparent dark cloud that followed Sutter around. The way this team came out sold me that they just won’t have it and time for change is now. There were 6 UFA’s and keeping Backlund was the right move. Kylington is just done unfortunately so we won’t know what could have been there.

Even though they have been much better of late I am still convinced this team needs a fairly major retooling and should be looking to maximize the return on their remaining 4 UFA’s. Hanifin and Lindholm are premium trade chips that teams will want long term so they should get a 1st++ package each. Tanev and Zadorov both represent a type of player that teams love to get for a playoff drive. A heart and soul stay at home type and a big physical Dman who can move. I think there is a chance teams will pay a slight premium for these players based on their desirability in the playoffs.

No matter what the Flames do they need to sell these 4 guys and start to work more prospects from their top ranked AHL team in the lineup. There should be no buying, no retaining, and no extending for this team. I am all for competing but they must sell to set themselves up for a youth movement in the years that come.

[Ashes]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Demko's numbers v. Calgary are not fantastic. 5-5-3, 3.01 GAA, 0.905 SP.

In his last three seasons: 4-5-3, 3.09 GAA, 0.904 SP.

Markstrom v. Vancouver, on the other hand?
11-3-2, 2.36 GAA, 0.916 SP.

Oh interesting on the Demko front.. let's hope that continues, I bet we see Demko in the next game between these teams. Markstrom on the other hand, you love to see it when a goalie plays motivated against a former team.

Tough schedule from here until January, hopefully the UFA's continue to play well and put up some points to raise their value even more. Zadorov hasn't looked quite right since the agent did the thing, hopefully he's out of that funk sooner than later.

[dino7c]

Vancouver has had a ridiculously easy schedule too

They play SJ for the third time on Saturday

[Enoch Root]

9 of their wins are against the bottom 8 teams in the league

4-5-1 against the rest of the league (and even that includes PHI, STL, NYI and CGY)

They're winning those games, so give them that, but they are a middle of the pack team, on a crazy heater

[Enoch Root]

Sorry, back to the topic at hand: we will know a lot more about this team by New Year's, as that is a crazy-tough stretch of schedule

[SuperMatt18]

All of these points discrediting the Canucks are 100% correct (soft schedule, PDO bender, etc).

But that still doesn't mean you classify that game as an easy game, based on that team's current form it's a tough game.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

All of these points discrediting the Canucks are 100% correct (soft schedule, PDO bender, etc).

But that still doesn't mean you classify that game as an easy game, based on that team's current form it's a tough game.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that that is an "easy" game, only that there is a world of difference between playing Vancouver and playing Dallas. They are NOT in the same bracket.

And, what do we mean by "current form" here? In their last five games the Canucks have a 3-2-0 record, a plus-2 goal differential, 3.37 GFA, 2.98 GAA, against five teams that have a collective 0.417 winning percentage, and a minus-104 goal differential.

Yeah, if that is the "current form" of the Canucks, then that's not great.

[D as in David]

You think the Flames' schedule is tough? How tough must the Oilers' schedule be when there are only two other teams in the league worse than you?

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't think anyone is suggesting that that is an "easy" game, only that there is a world of difference between playing Vancouver and playing Dallas. They are NOT in the same bracket.

And, what do we mean by "current form" here? In their last five games the Canucks have a 3-2-0 record, a plus-2 goal differential, 3.37 GFA, 2.98 GAA, against five teams that have a collective 0.417 winning percentage, and a minus-104 goal differential.

Yeah, if that is the "current form" of the Canucks, then that's not great.

It does suggest, though, that obtaining their 2024 1st round pick in a trade could be a good thing.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

If the Flames can somehow keep their head above water in this stretch, and get to Jan 1st around .500 or slightly above .500 then they probably are right in the playoff mix.

But this schedule over the next 6 weeks is going to be killer.

Big time ...

But .500 won't do it. They're a game under now, and if they go a game over through that ugly stretch they'll be .500 after 27 games and have to go something like 28-14-3 the rest of the way to get to 96 points.

That's a 108 point pace over their final 45 games.

I think they'll need to be something like 4 games over .500 before New Year's Day so they can play at a 100 point pace the rest of the way to make it.

So that's 5 games over in the next 18 games, which you highlighted is a brutal stretch of tough games; something like 10-5-3.

Ouch!

[Kipper_3434]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

As a Canucks hater I would love to say that...but when you are 13-5-1 and have the 3 leading scorers in the NHL it's tough to call it an easier game.

That's why I said despite their record. I would expand further but see that Textcritic already covered my points.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Big time ...

But .500 won't do it. They're a game under now, and if they go a game over through that ugly stretch they'll be .500 after 27 games and have to go something like 28-14-3 the rest of the way to get to 96 points.

That's a 108 point pace over their final 45 games.

I think they'll need to be something like 4 games over .500 before New Year's Day so they can play at a 100 point pace the rest of the way to make it.

So that's 5 games over in the next 18 games, which you highlighted is a brutal stretch of tough games; something like 10-5-3.

Ouch!

I actually think 28-14-3 over the final stretch with some easier games might be more likely than 10-5-3 in the next 18.

Either way it's not very likely.

[Kipper_3434]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Big time ...

But .500 won't do it. They're a game under now, and if they go a game over through that ugly stretch they'll be .500 after 27 games and have to go something like 28-14-3 the rest of the way to get to 96 points.

That's a 108 point pace over their final 45 games.

I think they'll need to be something like 4 games over .500 before New Year's Day so they can play at a 100 point pace the rest of the way to make it.

So that's 5 games over in the next 18 games, which you highlighted is a brutal stretch of tough games; something like 10-5-3.

Ouch!

Excellent points and thanks for doing the math. Just wanna mention that the difference between a 108 point pace and a 100 point pace is pretty minimal. Either way they have to erase the deficit caused by a brutal slow start, whether it's in the next 18 games or the next 64 is somewhat irrelevant.

[dino7c]

Have you guys seen the wildcard teams in the west? I don't think they need 96 points

They are basically in a dead heat now...they need to be better than those teams the rest of the way

2nd wildcard team is one game over .500