[Game Takes] Avalanche 4 Flames 1

[Bingo]

Avalanche 4 Flames 1

- Flames give up two goals on two shots to start the game
- Markstrom settles in after that but damage done
- Zadorov had a nightmare night
- Backlund in the guts of the game again

[Flamesfan05]

Zadorov and Hanifin never really grew up

They kept making the same mistakes they are known for years ago

[Infinit47]

Can we just swap Kadri and Lindholm? Can Sutter just try something different?

[D as in David]

You notice this guy every second shift

Wish we could say the same thing about the other winger on that line.

[Draug]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

Can we just swap Kadri and Lindholm? Can Sutter just try something different?

I'm not sure if all the time on ice stats and everything support what I feel I'm seeing ... but my goodness, it seems like Sutter has been rolling out the same failing lineup for weeks and weeks. Same lines, same D pairs, same game plan. Adjust already please! No in game adjustments either it seems.

Rolling 4 lines isn't working. Kadri doesn't seem to fit great with Huberdeau. Lindholm doesn't seem to fit great with Dube. Whatever their D zone coverage plan where the D follows the puck carrier all the way around the zone to the blue line isn't working. PP1 isn't working.

Can we please try something radically different???

[DeluxeMoustache]

Sorry, man. We are going to do this again

First, you’re right. Zadorov was atrocious.

I know you didn’t pin any goals on Markstrom, and lament the aggregate body of work.

And I know you looked at the first 3 and shook your head at the season.

2 goals on 2 shots sucks. But Georgiev unfortunately didn’t face a shot of comparable difficulty until shot 21.

Tonight showed *exactly* what I have been talking about, it’s like Groundhog day

The xGF model does base its results on shot origin, but not shot placement. Giving the edge to Calgary, it is generous considering what happened

Let’s take a closer look



Shots by the Flames (ie. how tough was Georgiev’s night in comparison)

1 - Pelletier stuffs it Left pad low. Pad on the ice, nothing to shoot at
2 - Wrister from point w traffic - Torso
3 - Covers a puck coming in slowly on the ice, gets credit for a save
4 - Mang - slapper into Torso, gloved
5 - Mang - it was quick, couldn’t tell if the puck hit torso or pad in tight, just Georgie’s was square
6 - Bouncer from far out, into torso

2nd
7 - puck trickled in - froze it, got credit for a save
8 - looked like 5 hole ish low, not handled well by Georgiev (came out to Mang who sent it cross crease and missed - hit far post)
9 - Coleman - stuffing in pad on ice low
(+1 Extra?).
* at this point it’s sketchy for a bit. Stuff happens but the shot clock doesn’t keep up
10 - Pad low, shot from far out
11 - backhand on ice, pad low
(Marky then makes a beauty cross crease save)

Return from commercial
Shot clock ticked up by 2 and
They enter the zone zone and go behind the net - it ticks up again to 13

14 - point shot torso (screen)
16 - Jamming garbage into the pads x2 Coleman
17 - dumped into flames zone and a phantom shot appeared ?
18 - Kadri slapper into crest - butterfly
19 - pp one timer pad low lindholm
20 - pad low from point
21 - Toffoli goal ! Hooray!
22 - Andersson circles around net - hits pad low
23 - one timer point pad low
24 - Zadorov near side from bad angle, routine seal
25 - Tanev, low pad save
26 - pad low, Backs on pk
27 - mang missed the net, shot clock ticked up ? 8:40 3rd
28 - Looch wrister top of circle
29 - backs far out glove save high


Generally, shots where routine positioning is all that was required. Lots of crap into the pads and torso. A goalie’s dream

Mang got chances but missed the net on a couple of glorious chances


What did Marky face?

Goal 1 - Z drifting and MacKinnon all alone - snipe. One of the best players in the game, all alone with time and space, makes no mistake
G2 - Bieksa showed the crossover zone entry, the shot was through traffic. Top corner. He didn’t see it. No real chance
G3 - PP one time, cross crease, top corner, redirected off raantanen
G4 - Malgin splits D top shelf - Z was awful, let him walk in and he sniped it

Georgiev did not face * anything * like that


They showed a highlight pack of Marky after the second
There was a sequence with a nice save and rebound
Rodrigues - good blocker save
Compher in all alone, moving lateral
He had a 10 beller with 2:05 left in the 3rd


Again the xGF model, bless its heart, does what it can grouping shots based on where they come from. And over the course of the year, the Flames G are only off by 6 goals in ~60 games. So it’s not that bad.

But this game, fancy stats notwithstanding, they got smoked.

The Flames generated a few looks, but other than the post and missed net, there were really no particularly good opportunities to score. Only Mang really walked in like they allowed MacKinnon and Malgin to do, and he couldn’t hit the net. Those guys sniped.

Georgiev didn’t have to handle 4 particularly tough shots. Routine positioning got the job done for most of his night.

Marky lost, and yes, let in 2 of 2, but was the better goalie. I feel bad for him

[Strange Brew]

I was at the game tonight and that high danger split really did not match my eye test at all. Flames dominated in offensive zone time but in no way appeared dangerous to me.

Agree the Mangiapane post was a killer. Still they had a little momentum going into the third going against a tired and injured team and didn’t show much.

The highlights for me:
Backlund line was great. All of them played well especially Mangiapane.
I have never seen a crowd get quiet as fast as when Lucic clocked Macdermid.
Kadri was engaged although he wasn’t that effective.
The rage over Backlund in the third was over the top. On the ice and in the stands. I think it was fueled by seeing their heavyweight get walloped.

The lowlights
Huberdeau. I followed him a lot and it scares me how low of an impact he has on the game. The idea that it is coaching is absolute bunk. He needs to be way better.
Lindholm was rough.
I didn’t think much of Pelletier’s game tonight, there were times he looked very cautious and tentative. You have to expect some ups and downs so no big deal but in general, that line did nothing to help this team win.

Their goalie didn’t have to work very hard.

Markstrom did not look confident to me. But IMO the story tonight wasn’t goaltending and in fact he ended up with some tricky saves.

Flames should have been desperate and pressing hard in the third. They just don’t seem to have the game to do that.

As we were walking out, my son tells me that what the team needs is that one superstar who can make plays that results in the puck in the back of the net. That is exactly what Huberdeau was supposed to be. He better be that next year.

Some cool Flames fans in the building.

[Manhattanboy]

Huberdeau the biggest bust we have had since James Neal.

[SaskyFlamesFan]

Unpopular opinion but I’ve liked Huberdeau’s game lately. I see less spin o ramas and more using his body down low protecting the puck. Less big giveaways from him.

Kadri worries me a little more on that line, he just seems to have less vision. There have been a few times lately where his wingers have had speed and instead of giving them the puck he tries to carry it in. The wingers have to stop at the blueline, he gets it in the zone but everyone else had to stop and now there is no speed and the play is dead. Frustrating to watch. I’m with a few above swap Kadri/Lindholm.

[Bingo]

I'm not going to get into that book above.

I thought Markstrom battled back and had a solid game overall, but once again it's a body of work thing and night in night out the goalie at one end is not getting it done.

The guy at the other end is.

And for sure luck comes into that.

The Flames had two blue chip chances in the first 3 minutes of the game and didn't really get a shot off. Mangiapane has an empty net and hits the far post. That's not a goalie issue at all.

And Markstrom, as I pointed out had a screen and block out on goal 2, and the third one hit a body in front.

This just isn't the Flames season. Things just don't work. Not for star players finishing, and not for goaltenders stopping pucks.

[Erick Estrada]

Definitely one of the most frustrating Flames seasons in recent memory. It may not be a bad thing to have a bunch of players on expiring contract next season as the options are there to make big changes.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Zadorov and Hanifin never really grew up

They kept making the same mistakes they are known for years ago

Apple meet orange!

Zadorov is a 5/6 guy that elevates and has struggled with consistency.

Hanifin is the 15th ranked defenseman in league in the last three years in xGF%, and the 39th ranked defenseman in just defensive metrics (xGA60).

He grew up just fine.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Definitely one of the most frustrating Flames seasons in recent memory. It may not be a bad thing to have a bunch of players on expiring contract next season as the options are there to make big changes.

Wouldn't it be a nice change if they got a jump on things?

Pick the two they don't want to sign or don't think they will sign and quietly get them into the chatter for Friday?

Hanifin
Zadorov
Tanev
Lindholm
Backlund
Toffoli

I'd offer up Tanev (valuable as hell but on borrowed time) and Toffoli (career year).

You have to keep Backlund and I'd prefer to grow around Lindholm and Hanifin.

Solid core players with term in a rental market might bring in a landslide of assets.

[Goriders]

There’s something wrong with this team. I think it’s a leadership problem. Hard to put a finger on it when you’re not in the room.

But if I were to guess it would be that Sutter has grown old.

Hopefully they can figure it out in the summer. Because there are too many good players on the team to be this bad.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Goriders

There’s something wrong with this team. I think it’s a leadership problem. Hard to put a finger on it when you’re not in the room.

But if I were to guess it would be that Sutter has grown old.

Hopefully they can figure it out in the summer. Because there are too many good players on the team to be this bad.

Hockey is a random sport.

I would guess you could walk back the exact same roster and coach and finish second in your division

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Apple meet orange!

Zadorov is a 5/6 guy that elevates and has struggled with consistency.

Hanifin is the 15th ranked defenseman in league in the last three years in xGF%, and the 39th ranked defenseman in just defensive metrics (xGA60).

He grew up just fine.

What are Hanafin’s actual GF% and GA60? I understand the value of x stats as an alternate view of player performance, but it’s a strange way to judge a player’s long term body of work. A player who underperforms their x stats for a while might be considered unlucky, but to do it over years says they lack talent. Results matter.

I have no idea what Hanafin’s long term x vs actual stats are, this is just a comment on the use of the x stats in general.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by edslunch

What are Hanafin’s actual GF% and GA60? I understand the value of x stats as an alternate view of player performance, but it’s a strange way to judge a player’s long term body of work. A player who underperforms their x stats for a while might be considered unlucky, but to do it over years says they lack talent. Results matter.

I have no idea what Hanafin’s long term x vs actual stats are, this is just a comment on the use of the x stats in general.

34th in goal splits in that same time frame.

72nd in goals against / 60

Guy is a consistent top pairing defender no matter how you dice it, and as you point out ... maybe a bit unlucky.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Wouldn't it be a nice change if they got a jump on things?

Pick the two they don't want to sign or don't think they will sign and quietly get them into the chatter for Friday?

Hanifin
Zadorov
Tanev
Lindholm
Backlund
Toffoli

I'd offer up Tanev (valuable as hell but on borrowed time) and Toffoli (career year).

You have to keep Backlund and I'd prefer to grow around Lindholm and Hanifin.

Solid core players with term in a rental market might bring in a landslide of assets.

Totally agree. Toffoli has actually grown on me but he represents an opportunity to sell high on a player that's on an affordable contract. Tanev as well would be a solid add for a team with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations. I know this organization is adverse to the idea of rebuilding but getting solid returns (solid prospect and picks) for expiring assets would provide at the very least the opportunity to retool or mildly rebuild. I think they need to shop Markstrom hard in the offseason (I get the feeling he may want a change of scenery anyway) to see if they are any takers if only to free up the cap space to keep guys like Lindholm and Hanafin.

[Finger Cookin]

I don't know how xGF works, but if the Flames are consistently winning games in xGF without scoring actual goals, it seems the expectations are set too high.

In terms of player deployment, I think Dube and Toffoli have been bright spots this season, so I'm not keen on removing Lindholm from that mix. Pelletier appears to have some chemistry with Huberdeau, and with the way Backlund is playing I would consider putting him up with those two. Kadri has been a black hole for this linemates after the first 20 games or so, unless he's on the PP. So demote him and see if Coleman and Mangiapane can get him playing a team game. Worst case, he'll take all the shots when he's on the ice with those two.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm not going to get into that book above.

I thought Markstrom battled back and had a solid game overall, but once again it's a body of work thing and night in night out the goalie at one end is not getting it done.

The guy at the other end is.

And for sure luck comes into that.

The Flames had two blue chip chances in the first 3 minutes of the game and didn't really get a shot off. Mangiapane has an empty net and hits the far post. That's not a goalie issue at all.

And Markstrom, as I pointed out had a screen and block out on goal 2, and the third one hit a body in front.

This just isn't the Flames season. Things just don't work. Not for star players finishing, and not for goaltenders stopping pucks.

Lol

TLDR; the xGF model does not reflect the work a goalie has to do

The Flames stuff a lot of pucks in to a well positioned goalie
They give up far fewer shots and far higher Grade A’s
xGF doesn’t capture it

Or “found a way to break the system”, in your words lol

That’s it. Pretty simple

Exactly what I have been saying is happening happened again.