Iraq Election

[Fozzie_DeBear]

An interesting Asian take on the upcoming Iraqi elections, what a mess.

If there is one reason why Cretien does not suck it is that he had the balls to keep Canada out of Iraq (without UN legitimacy).
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EndlessJoy live

[Cowperson]

Obviously wishful thinking on the part of the author.

The mere fact elections are occurring and we now see Sunni's joining the political process indicates things are moving along towards, generally, a negotiated solution (although obviously, there's no negotiating with the Al-Queda wingnuts).

An independent poll of Iraqi's released earlier in the week is interesting reading, conducted by the BBC and other news organizations, since it tells you what Iraqi's think which seem to contradict the thoughts of one Pepe Escobar in the Asia Times.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/4514414.stm

Sunni's turn to the ballot box in Tikrit, Saddam's hometown as reported in the anti-Bush paper, the New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/14/in.../14tikrit.html

As I've said before, the Americans are winning in spite of themselves, to a great extent because the disjointed insurgency is more incompetent than they are.

As we get into 2006, the predictable drawdown of USA forces will begin in earnest, probably reaching 50,000 to 75,000 fewer than there are there now (160,000 I believe) by the time we see USA congressional elections in November.

The end game issue is whether or not we see 50,000 Americans still in Iraq, in out of the way bases, five years from now . . . . as per Korea, Japan and recently, Germany. Or whether they're gone altogether ala the evacuation of Saudi Arabia a few years ago.

And whether or not these elections are followed up by the next ones. People are fond of pointing out Hitler got elected in 1933 . . . . but he never faced the second ballot.

And for good measure, a poll of Afghani's released the previous week:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ory?id=1363276

Cowperson

[mykalberta]

Things are definately going much better over there. As with every conflict like this it will depend on what the average Joe (Muhammed) does and thinks. If he/she thinks its better to hate the US along with the rest of the M/E then its a lost cause.

If they he/she says - hey look at Egypt, things arent to bad in certain parts of the country that have Western influence, then the US has a chance.

The plus side to the whole Iraqi experience is that its better to let the US ARMY and CIA handle terrorists than NYPD Blue and the FBI. One is trained and equipped to handle situations such as that, and the other is not. Yes Iraq has become a kind of a light to flies of terrorists as it were - but thats not a bad thing either, at least they arent going after small town Omaha and the like.

MYK

[Fozzie_DeBear]

However, is 'democracy' a sustainable model in Iraq? I don't think so. Without a very strong central authority Iraq will probably shatter into regions, if not into civil war. I think that, although elections are occuring and that is encouraging, that the equilibrium in Iraq won't be in a democratic Federation (I hope I'm totally wrong).

Also, call me pessimistic but I would take most polls about Iraq (especially those from the Western media) with a HUGE dose of salt. Can you imagine the methodological problems a pollster could face in that kind of an environment.
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Weed Maps

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

Yes Iraq has become a kind of a light to flies of terrorists as it were - but thats not a bad thing either, at least they arent going after small town Omaha and the like.

MYK

Yeah, because small town Omaha was really in the crosshairs for a while there.