[Game Takes] Game 2: Oilers 5 Flames 3 (Series tied 1-1)

[Bingo]

Game 2: Oilers 5 Flames 3 (Series tied 1-1)

This may be a boring read, as it feels more coachy than game story-y

- Flames come out strong build 2-0 lead
- Penalty filled game tilts things to Edmonton the rest of the way
- Shorthanded turnover creates Hyman game winner
- Three disallowed goals

[BurningSteel]

Sutter needs to hack that cheat code and find a solution, unreal to watch what he can do. Respect his skill level just wish the grease didn't have him,

[NegativeSpace]

I think this says it all in your summary:

“In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 58%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 67%, with a 8-4 split. Keeping McDavid and the Oilers to only four high danger chances five on five is exactly the type of hockey you want to roll out in a playoff game.

In all situations the Flames had 52% of the shot attempts, 44.6% of the expected goals, and 41% of the high danger splits. In non five on five hockey the Oilers had an 8-3 edge in high danger chances”

Everyone said that if it turns into a specials teams battle then we will lose. That’s what happened last night.

I still like the Flames chances as not every game is going be that penalty filled.


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[Bingo]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

Everyone said that if it turns into a specials teams battle then we will lose. That’s what happened last night.

I still like the Flames chances as not every game is going be that penalty filled.

My mind keeps going to the risk reward of letting McDavid go a bit when he goes wide with a big talented goaltender in the net vs grabbing him, taking two minutes and then giving him a minute of running around the zone on a powerplay.

What's worse?

[transplant99]

McDavid is on another level than anyone else on the ice right now.

The more space he has, the deadlier he is.

I say....play it straight and let him wheel with 5 defenders out there....problem is, they havent been playing as a unit while defending when he is on the ice.

Giving him more space on the PK is simply a recipe for getting hurt .....and i believe last night proved that...no?

Maybe they go back to the future and get him a shadow like Bob Johnson used to employ.

IIRC Neil Sheehy was pretty good at that against Gretzky...wonder what he is doin these days?

[NegativeSpace]

Him on the power play is much worse. The percentage of his points on special teams versus time on special teams - I bet - is quite high. So I have done some math , not sure if it’s the right math but here it is.

In regular season he’s on ice for nearly 298 minutes of power play and got 44 points. So nearly a point every 6 minutes.

5 on 5 in nearly 1328 minutes he got 58 points. So a point nearly every 22-23 minutes.

Playoffs he’s got 12 points in nearly 150 minutes. So he’s doubling his 5 on 5 pace from the regular season as having a point every 12 minutes.

Power play he’s got 4 points in 31 minutes which is a point every 7 - 8 minutes.

I still think that you accept he’s dangerous but less so if you keep him to the outside. Let him try to make those cross ice passes. The Flames are getting beat to the inside too much.

There are intangible things as well. He’s always enjoyed playing the Flames and he’s definitely got a thing going about getting over the hump in the playoffs. Perhaps too many questions about how great players can’t win.

In my view, the Flames would be better off surrendering the outside to him and not getting beat to the middle. You can be aggressive without getting walked so consistently. The Oilers have enough players that if McDavid can find the middle of the ice then the Flames are in trouble. They could use a few lessons from Dallas in how to box out the middle of the ice.


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[Erick Estrada]

I don’t think they can win this series the way Markstrom is playing. It’s not all his fault they lost the game but goaltending was supposed to be a Flames advantage and after two games in it’s been a disadvantage. He needs to be a lot better.

[Samonadreau]

I think you burn the tape from the first game, but not from last night's. Flames cant defend like that when Mcdavid is on the ice or you will lose more games than you win. Tim Hinter nailed it with comments last night saying when playing McDavid 1 on 1 you cant be too aggressive by attacking him and instead try and maintain position between him and the net. That Zadorov play where McDavid just took the bump then left Zad in his dust was prime example.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don’t think they can win this series the way Markstrom is playing. It’s not all his fault they lost the game but goaltending was supposed to be a Flames advantage and after two games in it’s been a disadvantage. He needs to be a lot better.

He's looked extremely shakey in game 1, and not really a big difference maker in game 2.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don’t think they can win this series the way Markstrom is playing. It’s not all his fault they lost the game but goaltending was supposed to be a Flames advantage and after two games in it’s been a disadvantage. He needs to be a lot better.

I agree he needs to be better. They seem to be worried about cross ice passes and having him deeper in the net in the first game. He got beat on some shots when he was deep in the net. Other than the Keith goal I thought that was better this game.

The team gave up too much in the centre of the ice and too many power plays overall. However looking back I think they had a real tough time at Edmonton’s blue line. Turn overs at that blue line was the difference in the game. Both their period goals are turn overs there.


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[Strange Brew]

Thing is some of these Oilers chances are very different than the ones that say Flames had against Dallas. That’s why some of these counting metrics aren’t as useful.

When McDavid is allowed to stick handle in the crease that’s more than a high danger chance.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don’t think they can win this series the way Markstrom is playing. It’s not all his fault they lost the game but goaltending was supposed to be a Flames advantage and after two games in it’s been a disadvantage. He needs to be a lot better.

Maybe in game 2.

He got hung out to dry though. Two breakaways and essentially a 1 on 1 with McDavid after Zadorov tried to run him.

Team D is the big problem in my mind. McDavid made Anderson, Kylington and Zadorov looks like fools last night.

Kylington falls down to much. Anderson isn’t mobile enough and Zadorov is spending too much time head hunting.

[Flamesfan05]

The biggest problem to me is when the Flames have a lead they can’t hold it. That gives the Oilers tremendous confidence no matter what.

You can’t win a playoff this way.

Markstrom is an issue but so is the sloppy defense. Kylington, Zadorov and Hanifin are all liabilities.

[Roof-Daddy]

I don't know how many of you ever follow moneypucks "deserve to win o meter" but I usually check it out after every game just for kicks.

Last night's had the oilers winning the game 95.6% of the time. Easily the worst result I've seen all year. Usually when they lose its still tilted in the Flames favor.

Don't know how much weight to put into that data, hopefully not much because not a good sign for the oilers to bounce back that strongly.

Expected goals were 9.14 to 3.51

Awful

[Flamesfan05]

I don’t follow fancy advanced stats, moneypuck or any gambling odds.

Just used my untrained eyes and the defense was the worst I have seen this playoff combined with a goalie you can’t trust. The outcome was obvious.

[Philly06Cup]

For the analytics crowd:

Natural stat trick has all situation xGF EDM 4.38 CGY 3.52
Evolving-hockey all situation xGF EDM 5.56 CGY 3.65
Hockeyviz all situation xGF EDM 4.3 CGY 3.6


Moneypuck is the outlier giving EDM xGF 9.14

[Major Major]

In the end the flames style overpowers the Oilers. D men are not going to fully shut down McDavid but they can sure play better than they did last night. Andersson and Zadorov guilty of over committing and getting into a physical battle. Just stay with him , ride out the storm, have a good stick, direct him into traffic areas if possible. I'm confident they can get it done.

[transplant99]

Its not just the Dmen though (yeah they were not great either) but the forwards last night were brutal in their own defensive coverage...then leaky Markstrom on top of it all.

Easy to see why the result was what it was.

Darryl will have them paying attention today ......guaranteed.

[Erick Estrada]

I think they have got caught up in the whole BOA hype and are not playing their game. Goals are fun and all but this fire wagon hockey plays into the Oilers hands. They could take a page out of the Stars playbook and slow down the pace of the game, waiting to capitalize on Oilers mistakes.

[Delthefunky]

Originally Posted by Bingo

My mind keeps going to the risk reward of letting McDavid go a bit when he goes wide with a big talented goaltender in the net vs grabbing him, taking two minutes and then giving him a minute of running around the zone on a powerplay.

What's worse?

I keep saying this, but if McDavid crashes the net hard like he does, Markstrom has every right to stand his ground. I mean just stand there at the top of his crease, and take the hit. If he runs markstrom once, I think we have licence to go after him until he stops doing it. the refs can't ignore it either.

The gameplan has to be to keep him to the outside, and if he runs markstrom, make him pay. I mean literally knock his teeth out.