Oettinger v Markstrom - the data

[Five-hole]

Excellent article from thewincolumn on just how otherworldly Oettinger was: https://thewincolumn.ca/2022/05/17/v...ending-battle/

Goals against saved against expected in all situations:



Oettinger saved more than two goals per game above expected. Without him the Stars are likely swept, or at minimum out in 5. Just insane.

And Markstrom quietly put up an absolutely fantastic series. We cannot say enough about how important it was for him to be excellent given what was going on at the other end. If he were even marginally less excellent this could well be a post-mortem analysis.

[Roof-Daddy]

Wow.

The Flames should not have been able to overcome that, yet somehow they did. Amazing.

[Bonded]

This data cannot be correct or Mike Smith is mislabeled.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Bonded

This data cannot be correct or Mike Smith is mislabeled.

probably correct. look at the defense in front of him and the shots he faced. He had a really good series.

[Jethro Choicebro]

Originally Posted by Bonded

This data cannot be correct or Mike Smith is mislabeled.

I suspect Edmonton give up so many chances that Smith did in fact keep them in it.

Oettinger is the same, while he was amazing, you can only put up numbers like that if the rest of the team is severely outplayed.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

probably correct. look at the defense in front of him and the shots he faced. He had a really good series.

Mike Smith gonna Mike Smith though. Edmonton probably should have won games 1 and 5, and didn't in large part because of Mike Smith. He will have insane performances but also just lose you games sometimes.

[Ruttiger]

Originally Posted by Bonded

This data cannot be correct or Mike Smith is mislabeled.

Smith was actually really good that series, game one gaffe aside. I'm not holding my breath that he continues at that level consistently, but he held up his end of the bargain in round one at least.

[Buff]

We scored 15 goals in 7 games against a team with a goaltender with those kind of advanced stats?

15 goals doesn't sound very good at all, but when you see these numbers... I'm impressed the Stars lost!

[Flames1217]

Even if Markstrom and Smith maintain their current pace the flames still win the series.

Wildcard will be McDavid.

If they can find a way to slow him down all the while take advantage of the lesser lines then the flames should, in theory, vastly outscore the Oilers.

I also think Dallas was the harder match up though and think Edmonton has some huge holes in their lineup.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

probably correct. look at the defense in front of him and the shots he faced. He had a really good series.

Smith's number needs to be reduced by one goal, since that one diving save in Game 1 was solely due to his own stupidity.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Ruttiger

Smith was actually really good that series, game one gaffe aside. I'm not holding my breath that he continues at that level consistently, but he held up his end of the bargain in round one at least.

Have to look at the stats but I didn't think LA had a lot of good scoring chances despite the shot volume. And the series was so loosey goosey and that really plays into McAvi's favour.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Have to look at the stats but I didn't think LA had a lot of good scoring chances despite the shot volume. And the series was so loosey goosey and that really plays into McAvi's favour.

I think these stats consider the quality of scoring chances, not just shot volume.

[JohnnyB]

Interesting to see Vasilevskiy where he is. Would not have expected him to rank so lowly.

[Icon]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

Interesting to see Vasilevskiy where he is. Would not have expected him to rank so lowly.

His 3 losses in a week a few weeks back cost me my fantasy league season, what a bum.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

Mike Smith gonna Mike Smith though. Edmonton probably should have won games 1 and 5, and didn't in large part because of Mike Smith. He will have insane performances but also just lose you games sometimes.

This is correct (and you are aptly named for this point). Smith isn't a bad goalie because he plays poorly overall. He's a bad goalie because he will let in a soul crushing bad goal when it counts.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

Interesting to see Vasilevskiy where he is. Would not have expected him to rank so lowly.

He didn't have a great series, but when the Bolts were facing elimination he became a brick wall for games 6 and 7.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Ruttiger

Smith was actually really good that series, game one gaffe aside. I'm not holding my breath that he continues at that level consistently, but he held up his end of the bargain in round one at least.

Yeah, Smith had a really good series, and he easily out-goalied Quick (as the numbers confirm).

What is amazing, and what would worry me as an Oiler fan (other than a general malaise stemming from really bad life choices), is that the series went 7 games DESPITE Smith out-duelling Quick.

If you were told, before the series started, that Smith would be the better goalie, then you would have to assume that the series is over in 4 or 5 games.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Flames1217

Even if Markstrom and Smith maintain their current pace the flames still win the series.

Wildcard will be McDavid.

If they can find a way to slow him down all the while take advantage of the lesser lines then the flames should, in theory, vastly outscore the Oilers.

I also think Dallas was the harder match up though and think Edmonton has some huge holes in their lineup.

McDavid isn't even a wildcard. He's going to get above a ppg. That should be expected

[Bingo]

The Oiler/King series was firewagon, and in the end the Kings didn't have the players to out shoot the average.

The Oilers have those guns, and generally out shoot the average.

But now they're playing the Flames, with some finish as well plus a boatload of shot volume for Smith to contend with. That will be the key to the series in my mind.

First round and what the teams gave up ... (5 on 5)

Scoring chances/60
Cgy 21.7 (2nd)
Dal 34.9 (13)
Edm 35.7 (14)
LA 36.8 (16)

High Danger/60
Cgy 8.3 (5th)
Edm 13.5 (13)
Dal 15.1 (14)
LA 17.0 (15)

Kings gave up a pile ... or the Oilers generated a lot, depending on how you look at it.

Edmonton in the regular season only generated 11.9 per game five on five, vs 17.0 against LA.

In the regular season Calgary held the Oilers to 9.8/60 in the games between the two teams.

[King Theo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfOrr5IQ_34

Top saves from week 2 of the playoffs as per NHL Network. Oettinger has 3 of the top 10 saves.

Smith was not listed.