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Old 03-20-2022, 11:39 AM   #1
Enoch Root
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Default Playoff Countdown

As of the trade deadline (updates will be posted as we go)

This thread will track the Flames' chase for a playoff spot, as well as a division title. The number represents the combination of Flame wins plus the other teams' losses where they are each worth 1, and an OTL is worth a half. For example, any combination of Flame wins and Oiler losses totaling 15.5 would eliminate the Oilers. For the playoff spot, all teams below the line need to get to zero for the Flames to clinch (teams can change in and out). For the division title, all teams need to get to zero.


PLAYOFFS
NAS: 16.5
EDM: 15.5
DAL: 15
LAK: 14.5
------------
VGS: 12.5
WPG: 11.5
VAN: 10.5
SJS: 9.5
ANA: 9
CHI: 4


DIVISION TITLE
EDM: 15.5
LAK: 14.5
VGS: 12.5
VAN: 10.5
SJS: 9.5
ANA: 9
SEA: 0

Last edited by Enoch Root; 03-22-2022 at 11:18 AM.
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Old 03-20-2022, 11:46 AM   #2
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Noticed today there is a distinct possibility that the division winner of the Pacific will matchup in the playoffs with a team that finishes with more points than the the matchup for the team that finishes 2nd in the Pacific.

Season ended today, the Flames would play Nashville who has 76 points, while the Kings would play the Oilers who have 74 points.

Has that happened before?
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Old 03-20-2022, 12:26 PM   #3
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8th place team in the East has more points than the 3rd place team in the West
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Old 03-20-2022, 12:43 PM   #4
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Top 8 teams in the east feast on the bottom 8 teams of the east.
West is more balanced
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Old 03-20-2022, 12:57 PM   #5
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8th place team in the East has more points than the 3rd place team in the West
pretty irrelevant because those 8 teams are feasting on 8 terrible teams
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Old 03-21-2022, 01:45 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss View Post
Noticed today there is a distinct possibility that the division winner of the Pacific will matchup in the playoffs with a team that finishes with more points than the the matchup for the team that finishes 2nd in the Pacific.

Season ended today, the Flames would play Nashville who has 76 points, while the Kings would play the Oilers who have 74 points.

Has that happened before?
In 2015, the Flames finished 3rd in the Pacific with 97 points. Minnesota and Winnipeg were the wild cards with 100 and 99 respectively.
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Old 03-21-2022, 02:53 AM   #7
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pretty irrelevant because those 8 teams are feasting on 8 terrible teams

But not irrelevant because the East is basically set, except for seeding
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Old 03-21-2022, 05:39 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
This thread will track the Flames' chase for a playoff spot, as well as a division title.
Good stuff. You should also include that the thread will also track the Flames chase for the conference and overall titles!
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Old 03-21-2022, 08:02 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tsawwassen View Post
Good stuff. You should also include that the thread will also track the Flames chase for the conference and overall titles!
Those are pretty much out of reach. There is a greater chance of LA winning the Division than for the Flames to finish first in the West.

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Old 03-21-2022, 10:29 AM   #10
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Has there ever been a case where an entire conference's postseason teams are set with ~20 games left? Seems insane how there is such a bright line already.
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Old 03-21-2022, 07:02 PM   #11
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I just wanted to add to the discussion so here are the likely opponents in the first round for the Flames based on the schedule they have:

Central Opponent ~ 94.64%
--------------------------
NSH - 34.4%
MIN - 22.8%
DAL - 19.5%
STL - 15.3%
WPG - 2.7%

Pacific Opponent ~ 5.36%
--------------------------
VGK - 2.3%
LAK - 1.5%
EDM - 1.1%
VAN - 0.5%

So I guess that's not really news, but there's only about a 1/20 chance(weighted schedule) that we get to play a team from the pacific in the first round.

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Old 03-22-2022, 05:51 AM   #12
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Those are pretty much out of reach. There is a greater chance of LA winning the Division than for the Flames to finish first in the West.
You're right about that, but, there is a greater chance of the Flames winning the conference than for the Knights to finish 1st in the division.
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Old 03-22-2022, 10:09 AM   #13
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On the remaining schedule, the Flames get the Kraken twice, Yotes twice, Sharks twice; Cannots, Pets, Pucks, Walks once each. It would take something major for this team to fall short of winning the division.
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Old 03-22-2022, 10:31 AM   #14
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I didn't know where to put this, but here's a discussion of which team in Canada has the best chance to win the cup, and which team is the best. I found it pretty funny with Button absolutely schooling Johnson.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1506008267902054401

Toronto is no good!
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Old 03-22-2022, 10:44 AM   #15
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For the playoffs, it is irrelevant what NAS and DAL does. Flames path for the Playoffs will be one of the 3 Pacific division spots. That 4th pacific team is the line in the sand. So for playoffs it is a single number.
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Old 03-22-2022, 11:04 AM   #16
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For the playoffs, it is irrelevant what NAS and DAL does. Flames path for the Playoffs will be one of the 3 Pacific division spots. That 4th pacific team is the line in the sand. So for playoffs it is a single number.
As long as it is mathematically possible to miss the playoffs or be in a wildcard spot, that is still the line
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Old 03-22-2022, 11:08 AM   #17
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As of March 22nd...

This thread will track the Flames' chase for a playoff spot, as well as a division title. The number represents the combination of Flame wins plus the other teams' losses where they are each worth 1, and an OTL is worth a half. For example, any combination of Flame wins and Oiler losses totaling 15.5 would eliminate the Oilers. For the playoff spot, all teams below the line need to get to zero for the Flames to clinch (teams can change in and out). For the division title, all teams need to get to zero.


PLAYOFFS
NAS: 15.5
DAL: 15
LAK: 14.5
EDM: 14
------------
WPG: 11.5
VGS: 10.5
VAN: 10.5
SJS: 9.5
ANA: 8
CHI: 4


DIVISION TITLE
LAK: 14.5
EDM: 14
VGS: 10.5
VAN: 10.5
SJS: 9.5
ANA: 8
SEA: 0

Last edited by Enoch Root; 03-22-2022 at 10:54 PM.
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Old 03-23-2022, 08:24 AM   #18
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What happened to the Ducks? I just saw they’re on a 7 game losing streak?

Vancouver was a long shot because of their terrible start, now Vegas can’t even score a goal (shut out in their last two games). The Pacific is a train wreck this year…
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Old 03-23-2022, 12:37 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tsawwassen View Post
You're right about that, but, there is a greater chance of the Flames winning the conference than for the Knights to finish 1st in the division.
I don't see how this helps to make your original point. Neither of these things is happening.

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Old 03-23-2022, 09:24 PM   #20
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Flames most likely to win the Cup:

https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

#1 in Power Ranking

https://moneypuck.com/power.htm
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