Next 20 Games Predictions

[Sylvanfan]

So with the Flames at 42 games played, there are exactly 40 games left in the season.

If you broke the first two into 21 game segments for convenience the Flames started out 12-3-6 for 30 points in those 21 games.

They followed it up with an 11-9-1 record in the next 21 for total of 23 points.

That said, this last 20 was extremely disruptive with the the Covid outbreak and all those cancellations, which resulted in a lot more road games being pulled foward.

After the first 20 or so, my thought was that would be the best 20 or so game stretch of the season and the team would likely pull back a bit. I think the 23 they just achieved is pretty close to the floor given what they dealt with.

This next set of games should allow the team to get into a rhythm playing regularly again, and the chance to establish a home ice advantage, even though it's still not known what capacity restrictions will be in place, and if we see a full dome again this season. Still I think being at home and in a routine with last change will let the team establish a more consistent identity at home.

My prediction is that the Flames go 11-6-3 in the next 20. Good for 25 points, and will be at 77 after 62 games.

[Vinny01]

I am interested in the next 26 games because that is the big home/road split or 21/5.

If the Flames make the Dome a brutal place to play they could end this run firmly in 1st place in the Pacific

[Canada 02]

22-0 in the next 20 games; giving 110%

[The Fonz]

I think what the Flames really have going for them (but against them this summer, unfortunately) is that 4 of their best players are in contract years - Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Mangiapane, and Kylington. These guys have all raised the bar this season well above how they're currently being compensated, and the massive payday is within reach. For their games to regress down the stretch now would remove significant value from the free agency bank they've built up through this first half.

I expect them to go something like 12-8-0 in each of the next 20 game segments, and much stronger playoff performances out of Gaudreau and Tkachuk for the reason listed above.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

22-0 in the next 20 games; giving 110%

I see what you did there.

I like their chances to go on a run as well. Couple tough games to start but i think that will only help them establish how to be ready and how to play winning hockey at home.

13-5-2. 28 pts.

[djsFlames]

Given the quantity of home games in the next 20, they should be shooting for 12-14 wins. I think half of the away games are in Vancouver too.

Start by taking 2 of 4 points vs TOR/VGK. I don't expect them to take both. We are coming off a dreaded break after all, which have proven to be this team's worst enemy.

[Moneyhands23]

I am going to try something new and be optimistic!

I think the Boys will go 14-4-2 and be 1st in the division. Also Mangiapane will score 7 goals at home during the stretch!

[heep223]

They’re about to go on a tear. They’re playing great and this is probably the most favourable 20 games of a schedule in the history of the league (not exaggerating).

[Bingo]

They've finally started winning at home, but they've been dominant all year.

Home Ice 5 on 5 Metrics:

CF60 2nd
CA60 1st
SF60 6th
SA60 1st
xGF60 3rd
xGA60 2nd
SCF60 3rd
SCA60 1st
HDCF60 7th
HDCA60 3rd

PDO 24th
SH% 28th
SV% 16th

Just can't finish on home ice. They've been a nightmare to play against in Calgary.

[sec304]

I could go for a 13-5-2 record over the next 20

[Macindoc]

Looking at the quality of opponents over that stretch, 13-4-3 should be doable. Anything less that that would be a disappointment.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Looking at the quality of opponents over that stretch, 13-4-3 should be doable. Anything less that that would be a disappointment.

Tough room!

Anything less than a .725 win% would be disappointing?

They're a .600 team that has had a tough schedule, I'm just hoping for a solid uptick on the .600 we've seen with less travel going forward.

Even 12-6-2 for 26 points would make me reasonably happy.

[BeltlineFan]

VGK
TOR
NYI
CBJ
ANA
SEA
WIN
@VAN
MIN
@MIN
MON
@COL
EDM
WSH
TBL
DET
@COL
NJD
BUF
@VAN

I'm predicting 12-6-2.

[gvitaly]

It's 11 wins and 9 losses by my count, not sure how many of them will be in OT. It will come down to 23-25 points. Anything above 25 points or 11 wins and I'm happy.

Even though we're playing well there are a lot of tough opponents or teams that we don't stack up well against. VGK, TOR, WPG, MIN x 2, EDM, COL x 2, WSH, TBL. That's 10 tough games, 10 easier games. I don't think we'll lose all of them, but I could see us only scraping 4-5 wins in those games.

In the games we should win we could drop points in a couple of ANA, NYI, VAN x 2, MTL, and even SEA(if Gio takes over the first time he's back in the dome). Meanwhile I am very confident we'll win in CBJ, DET, NJD, BUF.

The 20 games have 3 back to backs. In addition we will be playing 20 games in 40 days, which will have fatigue and minor injuries play a role towards the end of those.

EDIT:Added the Flames Schedule for the more visual among you.

[Kipper_3434]

Ummm, i know we've sucked in some OT games this year, but i don't think it continues. With Backlund and Mony entering their historically most productive time of the season I see the depth scoring improving. Predicting 15-5-0, with 3 overtime wins.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Tough room!

Anything less than a .725 win% would be disappointing?

They're a .600 team that has had a tough schedule, I'm just hoping for a solid uptick on the .600 we've seen with less travel going forward.

Even 12-6-2 for 26 points would make me reasonably happy.

Aside from VGK, Tor, Min, Col (2), and TBL, the rest are very winnable games. They may lose one or two of those that they should win, but will hopefully win one or two of those six against the tougher opponents, and maybe take one or two to overtime.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Aside from VGK, Tor, Min, Col (2), and TBL, the rest are very winnable games. They may lose one or two of those that they should win, but will hopefully win one or two of those six against the tougher opponents, and maybe take one or two to overtime.

On a micro basis for sure.

But on a macro basis it might be a little unfair to expect the team to rifle off the same pace as the 4th overall team for an entire quarter. Certainly not impossible though.

Especially if you have the Flames at a .600* with the * being a difficult schedule balance to date.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Aside from VGK, Tor, Min(2), Col (2), and TBL, the rest are very winnable games. They may lose one or two of those that they should win, but will hopefully win one or two of those six against the tougher opponents, and maybe take one or two to overtime.

I believe they play Minnesota twice, that makes it 7 very tough(unwinnable by your words) games. They might lose a couple more by your estimation, so it doesn't quite add up to a 13-4-3 but it would sure be great. A record like that over the next 20 would be a statement and a huge signal to management they should go all in.

[TheRealPepman]

Vegas - OTL
Toronto - L
NY Islanders - W
Columbus - W
Anaheim - W
Seattle - W
Winnipeg - W
@Vancouver - L
Minnesota - L
@Minnesota - W
Montral - W
@Colorado - L
Edmonton - W
Washington - OTL
Tampa Bay - L
Detroit - L
@Colorado - W
New Jersey - W
Buffalo - W
@Vancouver - W

12-6-2

[gvitaly]

I just used the odds of winning from moneypuck to estimate potential points. I used chance of winning which is flawed, but it was a fun exercise for me. I got 24.7 or ~25 points as the expected outcome of the next 20.



Also it seems those odds really favor the home teams. They give the Flames more chances to beat Tampa at home than Vancouver on the road.