A Statistical Comparison of Bread vs Fire

[FanIn80]

People are/were discussing Mangiapane's worth in the Giordano thread, and rather than clutter that one up some more, I thought I'd start a new thread about it. May or may not be interesting to some, but certainly interesting to me!

Notes
- He played 44 games in his rookie season, and his next two seasons were both shortened by the pandemic. So, in spite of only missing two games in the seasons follwing his rookie year, he's only played 168 games since his first appearance in his rookie season.
- The NHL has only played 208 total games since his rookie season (vs 246 during any other modern-era three-year period).
- Only comparing him to other forwards

Games Played, Top Five
1 Johnny Gaudreau 208
2 Elias Lindholm 207
3 Matthew Tkachuk 205
4 Mikael Backlund 201
5 Sean Monahan 198
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7 Andrew Mangiapane 168

Total Points, Top Five
1 Johnny Gaudreau 206
2 Matthew Tkachuk 181
3 Elias Lindholm 179
4 Sean Monahan 158
5 Mikael Backlund 124
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7 Andrew Mangiapane 77

Points per Game, Top Five
1 Johnny Gaudreau 0.99
2 Matthew Tkachuk 0.88
3 Elias Lindholm 0.86
4 Sean Monahan 0.80
5 Mikael Backlund 0.62
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6 Andrew Mangiapane 0.46

Total Goals, Top Five
1 Elias Lindholm 75
2 Johnny Gaudreau 73
3 Matthew Tkachuk 73
4 Sean Monahan 66
5 Mikael Backlund 46
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6 Andrew Mangiapane 43

Goals per Game, Top Five
1 Elias Lindholm 0.36
2 Matthew Tkachuk 0.36
3 Johnny Gaudreau 0.35
4 Sean Monahan 0.33
5 Andrew Mangiapane 0.26

Time on Ice per Game, Top Five
1 Elias Lindholm 19.54
2 Johnny Gaudreau 19.12
3 Sean Monahan 18.22
4 Matthew Tkachuk 17.59
5 Mikael Backlund 17.50
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6 Andrew Mangiapane 13.52

5v5 Goals per 60Mins, Top Five
1 Andrew Mangiapane 1.12
2 Johnny Gaudreau 0.88
3 Elias Lindholm 0.88
4 Matthew Tkachuk 0.82
5 Michael Frolik 0.79

5v5 Time on Ice per Game, Top Five
1 Johnny Gaudreau 14.44
2 Sean Monahan 13.59
3 Mikael Backlund 13.55
4 Matthew Tkachuk 13.52
5 Elias Lindholm 13.31
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6 Andrew Mangiapane 12.04

[Reggie Dunlop]

Like butter.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

5v5 Goals per 60Mins, Top Five
1 Andrew Mangiapane 1.12

That's the number that really stands out to me. I think Mangiapane has a lot more to give than we've seen so far.

As an old fart, I am reminded of Gary Roberts in 1989-90, who got 39 goals despite not being a regular on the power play. He led the team with 34 even-strength goals. That was the year a lot of people began to realize he was not just a big meathead riding shotgun for his buddy Nieuwendyk.

Not that Mangiapane resembles Roberts in any other way; but that kind of goal production at even strength is a really loud signal.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Like butter.

Spoiler!

Is that a live-action shot of mid-season Mangiapane rubbing a pile of 5v5 goals all over himself?

[Jimdon]

The guy played games on a line with backlund and Nordstrom and still produced like a top line player 5v5.

More 5v5 goals than anyone else and did it with less ice time. Never got rewarded with power play time either.

He needs a premier role next season, no more excuses for burying hime in the lineup and special teams.

[Reggie Dunlop]

He's done nothing but prove doubters wrong.

[topfiverecords]

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

He's done nothing but prove doubters wrong.

I was a doubter, but after what I saw in the world championships, I no longer am.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[1qqaaz]

I really hope his next deal is a long one.
6 years at the shortest.

[EVERLAST]

Still like the fact he was named MVP for the world's. Pretty awesome.

[Strange Brew]

If we didn’t count the 4 exhibition games against the Canucks, would he still be #1 in ES goals per 60? I’m assuming yes since he has a healthy lead but 5 goals does probably make a difference. Before signing him to a big money long term contract I’d like to see how he does with more ice time and more PP responsibility. Hopefully that motivates him to earn a bigger deal.

[ricardodw]

It was interesting in counting the actual games played in the NHL.

Mangiapane got 2 "bridge" contracts after his ELC 1 yr 715k and then 2 x 2.425 His first 3 years after his ELC he will be paid (albeit in escrowed funny money) 5.565 M.

Andersson on the other hand has been paid 4.55 M for his first year after ELC and will be paid 13.65 M for his 1st 3 years after his ELC

Andersson got his 6 x 4.55 contract as an extension after he played 144 NHL games. IIRC he was a problem child in his training, or lack thereof, to start his NHL career.

I would say that after Mangiapane's 168 games he is far far more of a sure thing to be a top-6 forward than Andersson is to be a top-4 D-man. Right now he would have a better trade value than Andersson.


Three years after his ELC Mangiapane is trailing Andersson by 8 m and change in their contracts. The Flames played hard ball with Mangiapane and treated Andersson as though he was Hanifin (5th pick OA and playing 18 NHL minutes per game plus since he was an 18 year old rookie)

If Treliving is still Flames GM when time comes for Mangiapane to resign it would not be surprising for Mangiapane to play hard ball with the Flames.

To catch him up with Andersson Maniapane would need 4.55 x 3 + 8 = 21.65 or 7.1M x 3. That is just to get him on even footing to what the Flames happily paid Andersson.