[GT] 2024 US Election

[calgarygeologist]

Discuss the incoming results, projections and trends.

[opendoor]

Pretty mixed signals so far. Florida looks awful for Harris and Georgia's exit polls (for whatever they're worth) were pretty bad. But some of the Indiana counties might bode well for her performance in the Rust Belt, which is technically all she really needs to win.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Pretty ugly results for Harris so far. Florida and Georgia are gone.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Pretty mixed signals so far. Florida looks awful for Harris and Georgia's exit polls (for whatever they're worth) were pretty bad. But some of the Indiana counties might bode well for her performance in the Rust Belt, which is technically all she really needs to win.

I just saw CNN discussing those exit polls where 70% are dissatisfied with the current state of affairs and Biden's approval is very low. That doesn't bode well for Harris.

[Whynotnow]

Yeah she’s looking like she’s underperforming pretty badly. I got a bad, bad feeling

[Paulie Walnuts]

What a stupid stupid country.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I just saw CNN discussing those exit polls where 70% are dissatisfied with the current state of affairs and Biden's approval is very low. That doesn't bode well for Harris.

Democrats likely aren't happy the state of affairs either though, so I wouldn't treat that as a partisan thing necessarily. And Biden's approval has been low for 2-3 years. Harris still has higher favorables than Trump does, though so did Clinton, so that doesn't necessarily mean s much as it used to.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Christ this thread is gonna be insufferable. There are currently 0 votes from Fulton county which is by far the biggest county and one that Biden won by 42%. Newbs need to chill, she might lose Georgia but discerning anything from this few votes is ridiculous.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Whynotnow

Yeah she’s looking like she’s underperforming pretty badly. I got a bad, bad feeling

I'm going to assume we see that happening all night across the voting day results and that early/mail in ballots will significantly shift things in her favor.

[direwolf]

Yup, looks like Florida and Georgia are gone for sure. Yikes.

[Locke]

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1853955774143226010

[Senator Clay Davis]

Anyway, an actual expert weighs in...

Originally Posted by Nate Cohn

The initial mail and early vote in Georgia points toward a very close race. It will take a long time until it will be clear who’s favored.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...president.html

...some of you are gonna be so off and on the ledge tonight I hope you all have sufficient alcohol/drugs.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Yup, looks like Florida and Georgia are gone for sure. Yikes.

Florida is not a swing state anymore—it was expected to go GOP. In terms of Georgia, while you may be right we should beware of “red mirages”—they still count the different ballots in different order with (in most cases) Election day being counted first.

To me the key is Pennsylvania. If Trump wins there’s it’s all but over in my view. Sure there ARE other paths, but they are way harder.

[MRCboicgy]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Christ this thread is gonna be insufferable. There are currently 0 votes from Fulton county which is by far the biggest county and one that Biden won by 42%. Newbs need to chill, she might lose Georgia but discerning anything from this few votes is ridiculous.

And apparently DeKalb CO was closed because 5 different polling stations received bomb threats, and so they are extending voting there.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1853941398644424846

[FlamesAddiction]

Harris was always in tough to win Florida or Georgia. You either win or lose, so it doesn't matter if they are close or not. I don't see either state as a microcosm to project anything yet.

[MegaErtz]

Trump is way ahead now. Harris absolutely needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. No other path to victory with Georgia and North Carolina out of reach.

[TheIronMaiden]

This is more threads than we get for Canadian élections.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Sadly, it would appear no Needle tonight. I remember Nate found a huge bug in 2022, guess it hasn't been fixed enough.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1853851709002719299

[PepsiFree]

In the last few days we’ve gone from Trump being a lock, to Harris ready to dominate, to Harris now being cooked because of… Florida.

If this is the end, I want to thank you for the entertainment.