World is more peaceful than any time in 12 years

[Cowperson]

Despite the daily horrors in Iraq and seemingly regular spasms of terrorist-sponsored violence, the world is a much more peaceful place than it was a little more than a decade ago, a new study says.

Since the end of the Cold War, the number of armed conflicts has declined by more than 40 per cent, while the number of the deadliest conflicts -- those involving more than 1,000 battle-related deaths -- has dropped by 80 per cent, said the Human Security Report, which was released here yesterday.

Make of it what you will.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto.../International/

Cowperson

[Azure]

Interesting. A big difference between the Cold War era and now is the way we recieve all the news of what is happening around the world. That's probably why many people think that violence has increased.


Its just like saying that child-abuse has increased 40% of the last 5 years, when what has increased is the number of people reporting it.

[Hakan]

God bless Hegemonic Stability Theory.

*rolling eyes*

[transplant99]

Originally posted by Hakan@Oct 18 2005, 01:27 PM
God bless Hegemonic Stability Theory.

*rolling eyes*

I have no idea why you made this reply.

Is it a factor? Probably very much so, but the article itself gives most of the credit to the UN...not any Hegomonic state.

The report's authors calculated that civil and external wars killed about 700,000 combatants and civilians in 1950 but that figure dropped to about 100,000 in 1992 and 20,000 in 2002.

A very good thing...no?

I guess it's all about perspective, but if the numbers in this story are accurate, then the world as a whole is a better place than ever.

[Cube Inmate]

And I was convinced that the world was going to hell!

2002 was probably the slowest year for deaths in the last 5 years, considering that the bulk of the fighting was done in Afghanistan in late 2001 (in addition to 3000-odd deaths in New York), and the Iraq invasion didn't happen until '03.

Could just be selective statistics...or could be reflective of fewer civil conflicts in Africa, Asia, Central/S. America, etc. Need context to pull any meaning out of these numbers...unless you're a Globe & Mail reporter, of course.

I guess if you compare the threat of terrorism with the threat of nuclear war, we are a heck of a lot safer now than we were in 1950.

Can't wait for the Utopian world of Star Trek to come true.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Personally, I don't buy it. The world is much more dangerous from my perspective, and that is counter to peaceful. Threats exist in different ways now. You do not have large scale wars where hundreds of thousands die, you have campaigns where the fighting is restricted and the deaths are heavily reduced. The United States has dropped more munitions on Iraq than were dropped in all of WWII. A fraction of the people have died. Does that make it more peaceful, or just more technologically advanced where weapons don't kill indescriminantly like they once did. Many coflicts beomce guerilla campaigns which are extremely violent yet restrict the numbers of casualties. Is the world more peaceful? Not a chance IMO. There are more disagreements taking place, but the means to an end restrict the large scale engagements that used to be common place. Civil war still happens, just on a much smaller and more focused battlefield.

[RougeUnderoos]

So let me get this straight Lanny... the study says there are far fewer conflicts going on now, you yourself say that conflicts are smaller and the death toll is smaller, and you interpret these things as evidence things are getting worse?

[WCE]

Is the real question; do we live in more fear than we did 12 years ago?

Is that a question that should be given more weight?

Perception vs reality? Many people would say that our perception ultimately is our individual reality.

I am not saying what my opinion is one way or another in this post...just bringing it up as a general point of interest.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally posted by RougeUnderoos@Oct 18 2005, 07:32 PM
So let me get this straight Lanny... the study says there are far fewer conflicts going on now, you yourself say that conflicts are smaller and the death toll is smaller, and you interpret these things as evidence things are getting worse?

The major conflicts are getting worse. The conflicts that are out there are ones that are not going to disappear anytime soon and continue to fester. That makes it dangerous.

20 years ago there was threat of nuclear war. Luckily it was accompanied by the defensive principle of mutually assured destruction, and that prevented anyone from using the bomb. Sure, we could potentially all die, but it was very unlikely.

Now we have the terrorist threat. Not major engagements, but hit and run and extremely dangerous. The unpredictable nature of the threat makes it more dangerous IMO. You knew the Russians would never use a nuke or a bio agent against the west, because the west would retaliate. Terrorists can, and likely will, use the weapons of those nature if they get their hands on them. They have no country to call home, making reprisal impossible. And if the west does retaliate it feeds their ranks. Again, the whole thing becomes more and more dangerous.

Thsi is very much like the gang problems that cities face all over North America. Those that hadle it properly control the problem and eliminate the risk. Those that don't see the gamg problem fester and become a huge issue, one where the security of the citizens is in jeopardy. People are at risk every day because of the lawlessness these gangs utilize. The same applies to terrorists.

These folks don't play by any rules and that makes them the most dangerous people around. It also puts us at a higher risk than at any time in our lifetimes. You never know when or how they could strike. While Bush and company try to put on a brave face and say we are fighting them in Iraq so we do not fight them here, some of us know that is bullshinguard and that we are still at great risk in this country as well. Deaths caused through these conflicts may be down, and the number of conflicts may be down, but our security is at an all time low. That means the world is a much more dangerous place.

[RougeUnderoos]

I'm personally far more afraid of being struck by lightning than I am of a terrorist killing me.

Also, I'm sure there has always been terrorism and people who don't play by the rules.

As far as I'm concerned... fewer wars + fewer deaths = more peace

The study isn't about how scared Americans are of terrorism.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally posted by RougeUnderoos@Oct 18 2005, 09:11 PM
The study isn't about how scared Americans are of terrorism.

Thanks for pointing that out. I didn't say that the report was. My point was that the world is less secure, making it more dangerous. Before, you could corral a problem with borders. Al Qaeda has completely blown borders away. They have become a non-limiting factor in the world today, especially the type of threat that is most prevalent in the world.

To give you an idea of what I'm talking about, there have been fewer murders and less deaths involving guns in Phoenix over the last year. But criminal activity and incidents involving guns is up. So by your view, Phoenix is a more peaceful city. That would be dead wrong as gang activity, organized crime and non-homicide violent crime is up. The city is less violent on the surface (to the general public) but is subject to a very violent undertow that threatens to swallow up anyone who wades into the water in the wrong place. At least that's what those of us who see it on a daily basis have come to understand. Think what you want, but I'll be waiving around a lightning rod in a thunderstaorm long before I purchase property down stream of any dam, chemical plant or nuclear facility in this country.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally posted by Lanny_MacDonald@Oct 18 2005, 03:59 PM
Thanks for pointing that out. I didn't say that the report was. My point was that the world is less secure, making it more dangerous. Before, you could corral a problem with borders. Al Qaeda has completely blown borders away. They have become a non-limiting factor in the world today, especially the type of threat that is most prevalent in the world.

To give you an idea of what I'm talking about, there have been fewer murders and less deaths involving guns in Phoenix over the last year. But criminal activity and incidents involving guns is up. So by your view, Phoenix is a more peaceful city. That would be dead wrong as gang activity, organized crime and non-homicide violent crime is up. The city is less violent on the surface (to the general public) but is subject to a very violent undertow that threatens to swallow up anyone who wades into the water in the wrong place. At least that's what those of us who see it on a daily basis have come to understand. Think what you want, but I'll be waiving around a lightning rod in a thunderstaorm long before I purchase property down stream of any dam, chemical plant or nuclear facility in this country.

You know Lanny, for a guy that rails so hard against Bush and his friends, you sure are starting to sound a lot like him in this thread.

All this talk of gathering dangers, undertows, unpredictable foes, vague threats et cetera, it's that kind of rhetoric he uses to keep this "War on Terror" rolling along.

Re: your Phoenix analogy -- I don't fear imminent doom or sense this undertow you suggest is out there in the world. To tell you the truth, it sounds kind of paranoid.

[peter12]

12 years ago... let's see what has happened in the past 12 years. Rwanda, Somalia, Yugoslavia, the Congo, Sudan. Anything looks good compared to that all that.

[Azure]

Originally posted by RougeUnderoos@Oct 18 2005, 03:24 PM
You know Lanny, for a guy that rails so hard against Bush and his friends, you sure are starting to sound a lot like him in this thread.

All this talk of gathering dangers, undertows, unpredictable foes, vague threats et cetera, it's that kind of rhetoric he uses to keep this "War on Terror" rolling along.

I don't think that you have to love Bush to understand that terrorism is very real. It doesn't matter who caused it, or why the US is fighting a War on Terror, it needs to be combated considering the position the US in in right now. They started the War on Terror and can't just back out right now thinking the terrorists are going to back down.


By the way Lanny, I know you are against the War in Iraq but what do you think about pulling the troops out in the midst of the constitution writing as many people are calling for right now?