The Flames since the All-Star Break: Highs and Lows

[SuperMatt18]

The team's performance since the all-star break is something that has been broadly discussed and debated in the game threads over the last week.

The discussion made me curious to dig in to the numbers surrounding the team since the break, to see if there are any underlying stats that may help us understand what's going on.

Lets start with the forwards play at even strength:



A couple of key things stand out here:

1) The first line has been bad any way you slice it. Most people have been able to come to this conclusion from watching the games, and the stats prove it out. Not getting pucks to the net, in the red from a high danger chance perspective, poor shooing percentage with them on the ice, poor save percentage with them on the ice, and very little production. Just bad all around.

2) The second line's struggles may be more about bad luck. Tkachuk hasn't been putting up points but some of that may be bad luck. The second line is still dominating from a possession, shots, and high danger chance perspective. The only issue seems to be save percentage (for Tkachuk specifically) and shooting percentage with them on the ice.

3) The bottom six is top class. Once again probably something that we didn't need stats to validate but I think this just shows how good they've been. The Ryan line with Eat Bread, and Hathaway is just dominating and their 65% plus HDCF% is ridiculous. The Janko, Bennett, Hathaway line hasn't been quite as good as the 4th line but also are producing and driving play at a great pace.

Now the defense at even strength:



1) Giordano is Elite and should win the Norris. Duh

2) Rasmus Andersson has taken another step. I think most people have seen this as well, and the coaching staff has awarded him, but Rasmus continues to get better. Great by pretty much any metric during this stretch.

3) The top four has not received good goaltending For the most part our top 4 (Brodie, Hamonic, Gio, Hanifin) continue to dominate play from both a possession, and high danger chance perspective but they have received really poor goaltending when on the ice in this stretch. One thing to flag is that both Brodie and Giordano are giving up a disproportionate amount of high danger chances, to their overall shot attempts against, so not giving up a lot but when they do it looks like it may be a major breakdown (seems to correlate with what we've seen on the ice).

4) Kylington may not quite be ready for prime time. I still like the player a lot but he did struggle a but in this stretch and the team has struggled at limiting high danger chances with him on the ice.

And now lets look at what these individual player stats meant for the team overall.



Overall the team continues to drive possession, and they are dominating on the shot clock but they are having a tougher time converting possession into real quality scoring chances.

A lot of this likely has to do with the top line but it does seem to be trickling through the lineup (4th line excluded)

I guess the one positive for this team though is that it's rare that you'd see a team that is 25th in shooting percentage, 24th in save percentage, 24th on the PP, and 18th on the PK over a 17 game stretch actually end that stretch above .500.

Personally I don't think the shooting and save percentage struggles will last and hopefully they can get through this stretch because if the bottom 6 can continue their strong play, and if our top line can wake up again, then this team will be a tough out come playoff time.

[Bingo]

This is excellent.

As you say it pretty much lines up with what we are seeing, but still to see the data is enlightening.

Rasmus Andersson - was intrigued that he was 80% CF last night in a game that was pretty vanilla. The game to game for the player this year has been 48% guy on the third pairing, but can handle the time with Giordano and has Brodie like with and without Giordano numbers overall. But now has he learned from #5 and is applying that on his own? If that's the case they be stumbling into a new star defenseman.

Top Line - Only makes sense trend wise that the team is having it's shooting percentage fall apart at the time the top line is a mess. The rest of the lines carry the play but don't have the talent to get things done so as a result you get team results that show Calgary is outplaying their opposition, but within that you have the most skilled players getting wood shedded when their impact is missed greatly.

Top Line Going Forward - it's time to muck it up. If they're giving the line the perimeter as a defensive posture they can't force it. Pucks to the point and jame the net is the only way to score a few ugly ones and make team defenses reconsider. Likely that's why Tkachuk is on the line now, Peters sees the same thing.

Best news to me is back to back solid goaltending appearances by the tandem. Scoring will continue, but having league average goaltending is key to get back on a run.

[Erick Estrada]

Good stuff. In regards to defense point 3 is it not possible that the save percentage is lower for most of the top 4 because they have given up more high danger scoring chances? Brodie is always exhibit A when it comes to bad turnovers but I can't be the only person that's noticed of late Hamonic is turning over the puck a lot in his own zone. I don't know if teams have noticed something on tape but his passes or clears up the boards on the right side of the ice get picked off regularly of late. I know he's come a long way this season over last but I think he's been pretty terrible of late.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Good stuff. In regards to defense point 3 is it not possible that the save percentage is lower for most of the top 4 because they have given up more high danger scoring chances? Brodie is always exhibit A when it comes to bad turnovers but I can't be the only person that's noticed of late Hamonic is turning over the puck a lot in his own zone. I don't know if teams have noticed something on tape but his passes or clears up the boards on the right side of the ice get picked off regularly of late. I know he's come a long way this season over last but I think he's been pretty terrible of late.

Yeah that is possible for sure.

Looking at the numbers for their Shots For % vs the HDCF% they seem to be giving up a higher ratio of high danger shots compared to overall shots.

That would could be driving the save percentage down for sure. Not giving up many shots but when there is a breakdown it is ending up as a high quality chance. And of course we know there have been soft goals too - so combine those two things and it would really bring the save percentage down.

[Phagoof]

I'd honestly love to see Lindholm just play 1st line center, the guy just oozes the role. Monahan I think would be a phenomenal second line center. And Backs is an elite 3rd line shutdown guy.

[Harry Lime]

For the first time ever, I agree with Phagoof!

Lindholm has significant time at centre in the NHL. I think that it's time to exploit that. Fill in the RW with Bennett, Frolik, Neal (?), Hathaway and Lazar.

[CaptainCrunch]

The only thing I know after studying your numbers and your spreadsheet is that you have excellent taste in colors that allow us to still see the text.

[Textcritic]

Thanks very much for this...

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

...1) The first line has been bad any way you slice it. Most people have been able to come to this conclusion from watching the games, and the stats prove it out. Not getting pucks to the net, in the red from a high danger chance perspective, poor shooing percentage with them on the ice, poor save percentage with them on the ice, and very little production. Just bad all around...

My question is "why"? Is it the increased pressure? Is it the reduction in time and space? Have other teams suddenly adjusted and flipped the script?

How much of what we are seeing has to do with an inability of the top line to perform, and how much of it is an adjustment period and nerves? When I watched last night I wondered if the frustration of the past four weeks was getting to them, and they are tightening up and playing with little confidence as a result. Monahan and Gaudreau both look to me like they are holding the puck too long, and their passes are too often not precise. I have to think this is fixable.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Thanks very much for this...

My question is "why"? Is it the increased pressure? Is it the reduction in time and space? Have other teams suddenly adjusted and flipped the script?...

It's that time of the year. Other teams start playing harder in February and March. This is not a secret or a revelation. Our top line (GML) is very fast and skilled; they're a pleasure to watch, when they're flying. But they are not tough and not big, which makes it easier to play against them. You can't push players like Iginla, Ovechkin, Malkin, Stone, Benn, Radulov etc. around; they push back and make you pay. You can push our top line around, because they don't. It's that simple, I think. So, it is not that our GML line is playing bad. It's just that the other teams are playing better against them now. I know you consistently disagree with the "size" argument. But it cannot be dismissed.

[GoinAllTheWay]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The only thing I know after studying your numbers and your spreadsheet is that you have excellent taste in colors that allow us to still see the text.

That photobucket watermark blows tho...

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The only thing I know after studying your numbers and your spreadsheet is that you have excellent taste in colors that allow us to still see the text.

I spend way too much time in my day job analyzing spread sheets, and need to color code things for my own sanity most of the time.

That carried over here...

[zamler]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

It's that time of the year. Other teams start playing harder in February and March. This is not a secret or a revelation. Our top line (GML) is very fast and skilled; they're a pleasure to watch, when they're flying. But they are not tough and not big, which makes it easier to play against them. You can't push players like Iginla, Ovechkin, Malkin, Stone, Benn, Radulov etc. around; they push back and make you pay. You can push our top line around, because they don't. It's that simple, I think. So, it is not that our GML line is playing bad. It's just that the other teams are playing better against them now. I know you consistently disagree with the "size" argument. But it cannot be dismissed.

This. Plus it gets magnified in the playoffs that's why there are only two current NHL players that are a PPG or above in the post season. Someone can check this but I believe they are Crosby and Malkin not the kind of players you can intimidate and shut down easily.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

It's that time of the year. Other teams start playing harder in February and March. This is not a secret or a revelation. Our top line (GML) is very fast and skilled; they're a pleasure to watch, when they're flying. But they are not tough and not big, which makes it easier to play against them. You can't push players like Iginla, Ovechkin, Malkin, Stone, Benn, Radulov etc. around; they push back and make you pay. You can push our top line around, because they don't. It's that simple, I think. So, it is not that our GML line is playing bad. It's just that the other teams are playing better against them now. I know you consistently disagree with the "size" argument. But it cannot be dismissed.

Nonsense. This argument is dismissed with ease. Since 1 February the NHL's leading scorer is 5'11", 178 lbs Nikita Kucherov. The list of top-20 scorers in the same time frame includes such giants as Patrick Kane, Mitch Marner and Claude Giroux.

The problem is not size. It's something deeper than that.

[Brick]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Nonsense. This argument is dismissed with ease. Since 1 February the NHL's leading scorer is 5'11", 178 lbs Nikita Kucherov. The list of top-20 scorers in the same time frame includes such giants as Patrick Kane, Mitch Marner and Claude Giroux.

The problem is not size. It's something deeper than that.

Such as?

[Jaydee]

Originally Posted by phagoof

i'd honestly love to see lindholm just play 1st line center, the guy just oozes the role. Monahan i think would be a phenomenal second line center. And backs is an elite 3rd line shutdown guy.

give it to me

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

It's that time of the year. Other teams start playing harder in February and March. This is not a secret or a revelation. Our top line (GML) is very fast and skilled; they're a pleasure to watch, when they're flying. But they are not tough and not big, which makes it easier to play against them. You can't push players like Iginla, Ovechkin, Malkin, Stone, Benn, Radulov etc. around; they push back and make you pay. You can push our top line around, because they don't. It's that simple, I think. So, it is not that our GML line is playing bad. It's just that the other teams are playing better against them now. I know you consistently disagree with the "size" argument. But it cannot be dismissed.

I think I half agree with this.

Think a lot of it does have to do with the GML line just playing bad and not playing their game.

Gaudreau has been handling the puck like a grenade, and making ill advised passes. I don't think that's because he's small - I think he's just not playing well.

Monahan is a similar scenario. He's having a hard time taking and making passes, and his ability to control the puck has been really bad.

And the biggest thing for all three of the GML line IMO that they look slow on the ice and aren't playing with as much pace. Which has removed a lot of their transition and off the rush play which is where they are most effective.

So the line's inability to execute and make plays at top speed right now makes them easier to defend. Allows teams to sit back and stand them up at the defensive blue line more because they aren't making those deft passes to break apart the d. Those blueline turnovers are also leading to odd man rushes against which hurts even more.

And IMO it's at this point where the lack of size does hurt. It's not the type of line that can simplify things when they are not executing, and just say "lets chip the puck in and go dig it out in the corner". They can't play that game, so when the speed and skill isn't working they just don't have a plan B.

Thing is though when they are flying and executing at high speed I don't think there is anything the defense can "adjust" to that can actually stop them. As we saw for the first 50 games this season.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Brick

Such as?

I don't know specifically beyond what I suggested. When Monahan and Gaudreau are playing in recent games they look like they are taking too much time with the puck, and not moving it effectively enough. to me, that suggests that the problem is more psychological than anything.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Nonsense. ...

Sure.

[Brick]

I wonder if there are any lifestyle issues with individuals that is affecting team performance.

[CN10]

I expect the issues at the top end of the roster, as well as the bottom 6's surge, could be a function of the massive amount of time off around the ASG & bye week. High end skill guys rely on timing and quick decision making rather than having an abundance of energy and working hard to generate offense. Time away from the game messes with that timing and adds a degree of rust to the in-game thought process. That same time off allows guys that rely on playing a high energy game to generate their offense the time to recover their health and energy levels during the course of a long season.

I think the March schedule going forward is well set-up to allow the top guys to get their timing back and hopefully for the bottom 6 to keep up their strong showings. They are at home for practically the whole month and play every second or third day. This means the top guys should get into a pretty good routine and the rest of the roster shouldn't burn out. I have more faith in Peters getting this skid turned around than I ever did last year with GG.