Should we adjust our expectations for this team?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I keep reading from fans on this site that the Flames "should" be doing better or be higher in the standings. I can understand that from a team perspective because we improved the roster somewhat over last year, and we expect the young players to grow. But instead of focusing on the standings or the team play, I figured I would take a snapshot of how each player is doing so far compared to last year when this team made the playoffs in the final spot.

To make it easier to read, green text means the player is improved over last year, orange text means they are pretty much on par with last year, and red text means their performance is significantly down over last year.

Johnny Gaudreau
Last year: 61 points in 72 games = 0.85 ppg
This year: 56 points in 48 games = 1.17 ppg

Sean Monahan
Last year: 58 points in 82 games = 0.71 ppg including 27 goals
This year: 43 points in 47 games = 0.91 ppg including a 40 goal pace

Micheal Ferland
Last year: 25 points in 76 games = 0.33 ppg including 15 goals
This year: 30 points in 47 games = 0.64 ppg including a 33 goal pace

Matthew Tkachuk
Last year: 48 points in 76 games = 0.63 ppg including a +14 rating
This year: 32 points in 46 games = 0.70 ppg including a -1 rating (points are up, but overall defense isn't as good)

Mikael Backlund
Last year: 53 points in 81 games = 0.65 ppg including a +9 rating
This year: 29 points in 48 games = 0.60 ppg including a -7 rating (borderline point drop and much worse plus/minus)

Michael Frolik
Last year: 44 points in 82 games = 0.54 ppg including a +13 rating
This year: 15 points in 37 games = 0.41 ppg including a -3 rating

Mark Giordano
Last year: 39 points in 81 games = 0.48 ppg including a +22 rating (team high)
This year: 22 points in 48 games = 0.46 ppg including a +8 rating

Dougie Hamilton
Last year: 50 points in 81 games = 0.62 ppg including a +12 rating
This year: 22 points in 48 games = 0.46 ppg including a +13 rating (points are way down, but the overall defensive play is better)

TJ Brodie
Last Year: 36 points in 82 games = 0.44 ppg including a -16 rating
This year: 20 points in 48 games = 0.42 ppg includng a -10 rating

Travis Hamonic (comparing apples to oranges on a different team, but here we go)
Last year: 14 points in 49 games = 0.28 ppg including a -21 rating
This year: 6 points in 44 games = 0.13 ppg including a -5 rating (offense is down a lot but he's only broken 25 points once in his career, however defense is vastly improved over last year)

Sam Bennett
Last year: 26 points in 81 games = 0.32 ppg including -16
This year: 17 points in 48 games = 0.35 ppg including -5 (marginal improvements after a woeful start)

Kris Versteeg
Last year: 37 points in 69 games = 0.54 ppg including -3
This year: 8 points in 22 games = 0.36 ppg including -8

Troy Brouwer
Last year: 25 points in 74 games = 0.34 ppg including -11
This year: 13 points in 48 games = 0.27 ppg including -4 (offense is down because of 4th line assignment, but defensive play is better)

Matt Stajan
Last year: 23 points in 81 games = 0.28 ppg including +3 (not bad for a 4th line center)
This year: 2 points in 38 games = 0.05 ppg including -2 (defense is there, but there's nothing happening on offense)

Michael Stone
Last year: 6 points in 19 games played with the Flames = 0.31 ppg including +5
This year: 3 points in 48 games (3rd pair) = 0.06 ppg including even rating

Brett Kulak
Last year: 3 points in 21 games = 0.14 ppg including -3
This year: 4 points in 38 games = 0.11 ppg including +8 (vast improvement defensively with increased playing time)

Mike Smith
Last year: 2.92 GAA and .914 Sv% in 55 games
This year: 2.39 GAA and .926 Sv% in 41 games


Now this doesn't include the contributions from guys like Jankowski, and obviously both Smith and Hamonic didn't play for us last year, but they should be considered upgrades on guys like Elliott/Johnson and Wideman/Bartkowski, but those are just 3 roster spots. Although goaltending is pretty important, Elliott and Johnson traded off stretches of solid to good play throughout the year, and could be considered at least comparable to Smith's numbers from last year.

Overall, there's a few players having career years (the entire top line) and Smith is having his best season in nearly a decade, but largely, the team is status quo to last year, and maybe we shouldn't expect much better. The overall defense is better, which goes along with the improved goaltending, but most players are down offensively, which could solely be due to a PP that was in the top half last year, and is in the bottom 10 this year.

I don't know what else there is to say. Thoughts?

[Erick Estrada]

Nope. Top 10 goaltender, one of the best scoring duos in the league, and one of the deepest blue lines in the league. This team should be a playoff team with the goaltending they have received at the very worst and division champ shouldn't be out of the question either. They aren't perfect as the lack of scoring depth proves but there's no reason this team can't compete in a wide open Western Conference for the cup.

[Red]

Last year's team did not have Stone,
Last year's team did not have Hamonic
They didnt have a great goalie. In fact, had just about the worst in the NHL
Gaudreau was a contract holdout who missed camp.
Monahan was injured to start.
Brodie was out.
Gio was coming back from a nasty bicept injury.
Had a new coach and a new system to learn.

Hard to not expect an improvement from that.

[Textcritic]

I think the team is on par with my own expectations, which was that they would be a top-three Pacific Division team. But the surprise of this season is how tight the gap is between a division playoff berth and the #10/11 spots in the Western Conference. The Flames are but two points back of the Sharks for #2 in the division, and also only two points up on the #10 team, the Anaheim Ducks. The parity is crazy, and the fact that there are a lot of teams in the race does not mean the Flames are failing to meet expectations. It rather means that those expectations failed to account for how good the Western Conference is this year.

I think this has coloured peoples' perceptions about how good a team the Flames are.

[Ashasx]

Decent special teams would cover up so many of this team's issues.

[Azhouse]

Who would have thought that Brouwer could actually get worse?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Red

Last year's team did not have Stone,
Last year's team did not have Hamonic
They didnt have a great goalie. In fact, had just about the worst in the NHL
Gaudreau was a contract holdout who missed camp.
Monahan was injured to start.
Brodie was out.
Gio was coming back from a nasty bicept injury.
Had a new coach and a new system to learn.

Hard to not expect an improvement from that.

They are improved from that IMO.

BTW, Gio's bicep injury was in 2015, Hartley's PO year. He came back from that in 2015-16, Hartley's lottery team year. He was at full capability (and showed it) last year.

[kevman]

If Vegas wasn't the surprise best team in the league the Flames would be in conversation for division lead. Ahead of LA, Anaheim and Edmonton and only 2 back of San Jose. Going into the season most posters would have been happy with that.

[Red]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

They are improved from that IMO.

BTW, Gio's bicep injury was in 2015, Hartley's PO year. He came back from that in 2015-16, Hartley's lottery team year. He was at full capability (and showed it) last year.

My bad, thought we were down 2 D to start last year and assumed it was Gio's recovery year.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by Azhouse

Who would have thought that Brouwer could actually get worse?

It's not so much that he's just worse, but so, so much worse...

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by kevman

If Vegas wasn't the surprise best team in the league the Flames would be in conversation for division lead. Ahead of LA, Anaheim and Edmonton and only 2 back of San Jose. Going into the season most posters would have been happy with that.

This is a good point Vegas has really thrown a wrinkle into things.

I don't get why anyone likes that team. They're annoying.

[Five-hole]

It's time to move some of our prospect D depth for a forward who can put the puck in the net. The younger the better, obviously, but not sure we can just go prospect for prospect. We need NHL-ready scoring talent, badly. And we have no space on the blueline for 2-3 years, so what's the point in having a bunch of D-men knocking on the door?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

It's time to move some of our prospect D depth for a forward who can put the puck in the net. The younger the better, obviously, but not sure we can just go prospect for prospect. We need NHL-ready scoring talent, badly. And we have no space on the blueline for 2-3 years, so what's the point in having a bunch of D-men knocking on the door?

The point is to ensure that when there are in fact multiple defensemen competing for individual places on the roster, then the Flames will find themselves in a strong negotiating position to recoup their value. They are not yet at that point.

This is not a single-year project. While the Flames currently have holes needing to be filled it will likely take another couple years of change and growth to get there.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

This is a good point Vegas has really thrown a wrinkle into things.

I don't get why anyone likes that team. They're annoying.

I don't understand how anyone can find them annoying.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

I don't understand how anyone can find them annoying.

Agreed. It is a fun story.

[stone hands]

Remember the team who scored 0 even strength goals in the playoffs last year, who’s gm’s answer when asked what keeps him up at night was scoring, didn’t add anyone offensively except for a bunch of ahl players

Yeah that team is slightly better this year after adding some peices on d and in goal and are much better defensively overall than last year

Pretty much what I expected. I hoped for more obviously, but if you watched this team closely over the last few years you’d know that this is probably where they would be. Steadily improving young team, fighting for home ice, better defense, etc. Still haven’t solved the goal scoring problem. They are good to have a long stretch of good play esch year but have some problems pulling it all together because their forward depth is weak and catches up to them

[Gaskal]

This team would be comfortably 2nd in the Pacific if it could figure out its powerplay.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

This team would be comfortably 2nd in the Pacific if it could figure out its powerplay.

Or get any depth scoring.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The point is to ensure that when there are in fact multiple defensemen competing for individual places on the roster, then the Flames will find themselves in a strong negotiating position to recoup their value. They are not yet at that point.

This is not a single-year project. While the Flames currently have holes needing to be filled it will likely take another couple years of change and growth to get there.

True, but we also have no scoring waiting in the wings either. It's a problem today and it will be a problem in two years. That's the problem when you trade two first rounders in a three year period.

[cross16]

Problem for me in terms of expectations has always been 2 fold.

1 - Was assumed Hamonic was an upgrade to the defense. Arguably, he hasn't been (certainly if you compare him to post Stone acquisition). Not to mention that once this team figured things out last year they were already an excellent defensive team.
2 - 5 on 5 this team couldn't score last year and was heavily boosted by their PP and I find PP success as a team is tough to carry forward year to year. They did essentially nothing to fix this in the off-season.

I expected a similar finish to last year points wise. Upsdie being that I think with some of the pieces they have a chance to get hot and go on a run which with the goaltending they had last year they had no chance of that happening.