Points relative to contracts

[jayswin]

I apologize for the lack of stats from a thread starter, but just wanted to get a little discussion rolling on how contracts may shape up this coming summer and beyond now that we've seen a major change in scoring totals.

It's a little early to declare anything yet, but it does appear that NHL scoring will be up significantly this season due to a huge crackdown by the NHL. As far as I can tell, NHL contracts the last few seasons for scoring forwards have been very heavily defined by specific point goal/assist/point totals, but they went along with consistent season to season league scoring totals.

I wonder if teams with major contracts up this year are sweating right now with the possibility a 60pt player last year may turn into an 80pt player this year but not actually have improved relative to his peers.

I also wonder what it may do to free agency. I'd like to say that NHL GM's will all take this into account, but knowing the absurdity of GM's especially around free agency, I could see some bad contracts.

[jayswin]

The Leafs are a team I could really see being hurt by a huge increase in scoring. Matthews, Marner and Nylander - All young, scoring forwards getting ready for major contracts as scoring suddenly jumps up significantly.

[topfiverecords]

And to add to the confusion a 75pt $12.5M McDavid.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

And to add to the confusion a 75pt $12.5M McDavid.

Haha, yeah an off year for Conner definitlely could make for some hilarious agent/GM meetings.

"My 93pt winger is looking for an 8 year, MAX contract due to this $12.5m/yr 75pt no name over here".

[rain_e]

Oh no I have too many players scoring too many points. Who should I sign and who should I let go? Maybe the Flames will have this problem one day.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

And to add to the confusion a 75pt $12.5M McDavid.

I mean of all the people over 1 ppg, I wouldn't bet on McDavid being the one to fall off.


Will be curious to see contracts this summer. Teams are shifting more towards a pay for the good years, not pay for years after the good years. So we shall see.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I mean of all the people over 1 ppg, I wouldn't bet on McDavid being the one to fall off.


Will be curious to see contracts this summer. Teams are shifting more towards a pay for the good years, not pay for years after the good years. So we shall see.

His assists pace could easily drop off if they need to send Draisaitl back to 2C and Maroon has any type of injury.

[Finger Cookin]

Goals per game in 17-18 to date: ~6.05
Goals per game in the last five full seasons (12-13 to 16-17 inclusive): ~5.37

Goal scoring seems to be up about 13% so far. Hard to say if it's due to the rules crackdown, expansion diluting teams talent levels, goaltending equipment, or other factors.

All things remaining equal, a 60 point player might be more likely to be a 68 point player if this trend continues. I think players exceeding that are exceptional players that would have exceeded scoring levels in the past as well, and will get paid accordingly. Just as in the past. Just throwing some numbers into the conversation.

[tvp2003]

Are powerplays up this year? What about powerplay goals?

UFA/RFA goalies could also get a bump if shot totals stay artificially high (resulting in a higher save %).

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Are powerplays up this year? What about powerplay goals?

UFA/RFA goalies could also get a bump if shot totals stay artificially high (resulting in a higher save %).

17-18 to date: ~7.5 PP opportunities per game, ~1.4 PPG/G. ~18.7 PP%
Previous 5 seasons: ~6.27 PPOpp/G, ~1.16PPG/G ~18.5 PP%

So far in 17-18, power play goal scoring is up 20.7%. Power play opportunities are up 19.6%. So it seems that the number of power play goals had had a significant impact on the increase in scoring seen to date in 17-18, accounting for ~35% of the increased goal scoring so far.

[Itse]

The scoring will most likely go back down somewhat as the teams adjust to the new rules. Partly due to penalties going back to normal levels, partly because players will figure out ways to defend that won't put them in the box.

[FBI]

So scoring is up, how does that prorate Bennett's points so far?
Yes I'm bitter, I want Bennett to be good dammit.

[The Cobra]

In a cap world, there is only so much money to go around. A sudden increase in points won't mean there is more money available for players.


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[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

In a cap world, there is only so much money to go around. A sudden increase in points won't mean there is more money available for players.


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No, but if GMs give out bigger contracts to this year's group of FAs, the money will be distributed differently. This year's group will get more, and those previously signed will end up eating more escrow.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

No, but if GMs give out bigger contracts to this year's group of FAs, the money will be distributed differently. This year's group will get more, and those previously signed will end up eating more escrow.

Previously signed players only end up eating escrow if the cap goes up artificially through the escalator.

Which is really not relevant to distribution of available money.

UFA's tend to get bigger and bigger contracts because there is generally more money available through a rising cap.

Whether or not scoring is up or down, there is still the same pool of money available. How it's distributed doesn't affect the pool. The best UFA's get the most, and whether they scored 60 or 66 points likely won't make any difference in the contract when the available money stays the same.