[News] TSN: Flames lacking offence at RW

[ClubFlames]

Travis Yost article.

http://www.tsn.ca/flames-lacking-off...-wing-1.869652

[EldrickOnIce]

Given the source, surprisingly fair assessment, imo.

[browna]

Hey, look. I think this guy plays RW, and that’s not his PIN number (although it should be) written on the puck.

[Finger Cookin]

I think it's interesting that 10 or so days ago some of us were kicking around the notion of the forward group scoring 165-175 goals, and Yost's article rates the group at 182.2.

[GranteedEV]

I agree wih Frolik/Brouwer/Lazar but disagree overall because Ferland is being underestimated and Versteeg is a natural RW.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Given the source, surprisingly fair assessment, imo.

Completely disagree. It is a ham-handed article. Downside is emphasized in all instances rather than upside.

Ferland played only 47% of his shifts last season with Gaudreau and Monahan, and still put up 15 goals. His 5on5 SH% was 8.07% compared to his total of 14.2%, which is strange, considering he only scored 2 PP goals. which indicates the stats may be somewhat skewed in some regard. It may also reflect the fact that the guy only took 106 shots last season, and is not a guy who shoots a lot, or shoots only when he sees a good opportunity. Playing with Gaudreau I think that it is a high probablility that he's going to get good scoring opportunities. For comparison sake, Monahan's SH% 5on5 was 8.18% and his total was 13.6%, so sort of similar. Again, the Gaudreau effect? Suggesting that Ferland is headed to 12 goals this season is ignoring the growth of the player, the success he had with this line last season, and the coach's commitment to keeping the line together. 15 goals would be a disappointment from Ferland based on last season and his growth.

His comments about Lazar and Brouwer are equally puzzling, bordering on the ridiculous. He dumps all over Lazar, and rightly so, but then suggests that Brouwer is a destined for the 4th line. If Lazar is that bad, then what the hell is Brouwer doing on the 4th line? Doesn't make any sense, especially when he suggests that Brouwer could score 16 or more if played up the lineup. I mean, that doesn't even make any sense? Brouwer should be slotted in on the 3rd line unless someone steps up and steals the job away from him, which Yost seems to think is unlikely.

Yost is out to lunch. He's basically suggesting no one on the Flames is going to be better than last season, no one is going to improve, and everyone is taking a step backward. This seems to be a consistent theme within the media, and one too many Flames fans are buying into.

[calgarygeologist]

The Flames haven't had a credible #1 or #2 RW in years.

[Yrebmi]

Weighted goal predictions going with last three years at 10%, 30%, and 50%
That adds up to 90%. What am I missing?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

Weighted goal predictions going with last three years at 10%, 30%, and 50%
That adds up to 90%. What am I missing?

10%.

[gunnner]

I hate Yost, he picks and chooses his numbers to fit his story line with the worst of them. Shocker Ferlands shooting percentage went from 4% to 14% when he went from grinding in the corners with Stagan and Hathaway to receiving drop passes in the slot and breakaway passes. Ferland is more likely to score 25 in my opinion than 12 if he plays the full year on the first line.
Stupid article by a bad writer.

[belsarius]

Ferland was behind only Monahan in ES:TOI/G. Monahan put up a goal for every 64 mins of even-strength time on ice, Ferland, put up a goal every 64.5 mins.

So really add some PP time, give him a full season on the first line and if he doesn't show regression he could be good for 25 goals. I think him hitting 20 isn't unrealistic and is a good number to be on the top two lines.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by New Era

His comments about Lazar and Brouwer are equally puzzling, bordering on the ridiculous. He dumps all over Lazar, and rightly so, but then suggests that Brouwer is a destined for the 4th line. If Lazar is that bad, then what the hell is Brouwer doing on the 4th line? Doesn't make any sense, especially when he suggests that Brouwer could score 16 or more if played up the lineup. I mean, that doesn't even make any sense? Brouwer should be slotted in on the 3rd line unless someone steps up and steals the job away from him, which Yost seems to think is unlikely.

The article says he used the projected lines so he put Lazar as 3rd line RW. He even says Brouwer is a much better bet for production and more accurately should be paying 3rd line.

He's a statistical guy and actually was a huge Flames supported in the playoff stretch drive last year, predicting they'd go far. You argue he's missing the huge upside and best case scenarios...but you're also ignoring the fact that many of these guys can regress and have career worse years too. His model is just showing what to expect based off history...nothing more, nothing less.

[Savvy27]

I'm starting to worry about how Ferland is going to produce on that top line. The way I recalled things, he didn't get much of an opportunity for the majority of the season (I took a look and up to February 14th he was averaging 10:43 per game which was 13th on the team for forwards and behind the amount Linden Vey was getting in his 4 games). I figured that it was lack of opportunity and not lack of skill that was holding him back.

Up to Feb. 14
GP: 53 G: 8 A: 7 P: 15 TOI/GP: 10:43 PPP: 3 Points/Game: 0.28 Shooting %: 12.1

However, even after Feb. 14 or for the last 23 games of the season that he played, his icetime went up to 13:30 (9th), but his production didn't actually change all that much relative to his improved opportunity. In that last part of the season Gaudreau (26 points) and Monahan (23 points) were scoring at a very high rate and Ferland only scored 10 points during that period. I thought it might be due to Ferland not playing regularly on the power play but Gaudreau (4 points) and Monahan (5 points) weren't getting the majority of their points on special teams either (Ferland had 1 power play point).

After Feb. 14
GP: 23 G: 7 A: 3 P: 10 TOI/GP: 13:30 PPP: 1 Points/Game: 0.43 Shooting %: 17.5

His production did improve, but most of that improvement was goal scoring. His goals per game rate went from .15 ->.30 while his assist rate saw a much more modest increase from .13->.14. His shot rate jumped from 1.2->1.7 and his shooting percentage also increased from 12.1->17.5. Obviously, goal scoring is very important and 7 goals in 23 games is fairly impressive, but I think there is a legitimate question of whether he actually helped that line or if he was just put in the right place at the right time when Gaudreau and Monahan got hot. Only putting up 4 assists in 23 games while playing alongside those two as they were scoring over a point a game is concerning to me.

Now, if Ferland being on the line gives Gaudreau more room and Ferland is causing turnovers with his forechecking and that is part of the reason that the line played so well, then that is great and hopefully they stick together this season. But, I think the coaches have to be on awake to the possibility that Ferland isn't going to be the answer over the long haul.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Savvy27

I'm starting to worry about how Ferland is going to produce on that top line. The way I recalled things, he didn't get much of an opportunity for the majority of the season (I took a look and up to February 14th he was averaging 10:43 per game which was 13th on the team for forwards and behind the amount Linden Vey was getting in his 4 games). I figured that it was lack of opportunity and not lack of skill that was holding him back.

Up to Feb. 14
GP: 53 G: 8 A: 7 P: 15 TOI/GP: 10:43 PPP: 3 Points/Game: 0.28 Shooting %: 12.1

However, even after Feb. 14 or for the last 23 games of the season that he played, his icetime went up to 13:30 (9th), but his production didn't actually change all that much relative to his improved opportunity. In that last part of the season Gaudreau (26 points) and Monahan (23 points) were scoring at a very high rate and Ferland only scored 10 points during that period. I thought it might be due to Ferland not playing regularly on the power play but Gaudreau (4 points) and Monahan (5 points) weren't getting the majority of their points on special teams either (Ferland had 1 power play point).

After Feb. 14
GP: 23 G: 7 A: 3 P: 10 TOI/GP: 13:30 PPP: 1 Points/Game: 0.43 Shooting %: 17.5

His production did improve, but most of that improvement was goal scoring. His goals per game rate went from .15 ->.30 while his assist rate saw a much more modest increase from .13->.14. His shot rate jumped from 1.2->1.7 and his shooting percentage also increased from 12.1->17.5. Obviously, goal scoring is very important and 7 goals in 23 games is fairly impressive, but I think there is a legitimate question of whether he actually helped that line or if he was just put in the right place at the right time when Gaudreau and Monahan got hot. Only putting up 4 assists in 23 games while playing alongside those two as they were scoring over a point a game is concerning to me.

Now, if Ferland being on the line gives Gaudreau more room and Ferland is causing turnovers with his forechecking and that is part of the reason that the line played so well, then that is great and hopefully they stick together this season. But, I think the coaches have to be on awake to the possibility that Ferland isn't going to be the answer over the long haul.

I think those stats really show what Ferland is, a heavy body and trigger guy. He is not a possession player and will not drive the play, thus his assist rate is barely unchanged. Plus playing with Gaudreau his actual time with a puck on his stick is way down, he is not responsible for carrying in and dishing, he is a bull down into the corner then open up into the slot for a chance. Its gives that line two trigger guys to watch out for which I think did open up room for Gaudreau to work. If you double team him you leave a prime goal scorer loose. Anaheim may have stifled this line on the score sheet but I think they got the chances still in the playoffs.

[868904]

Originally Posted by belsarius

I think those stats really show what Ferland is, a heavy body and trigger guy. He is not a possession player and will not drive the play, thus his assist rate is barely unchanged. Plus playing with Gaudreau his actual time with a puck on his stick is way down, he is not responsible for carrying in and dishing, he is a bull down into the corner then open up into the slot for a chance. Its gives that line two trigger guys to watch out for which I think did open up room for Gaudreau to work. If you double team him you leave a prime goal scorer loose. Anaheim may have stifled this line on the score sheet but I think they got the chances still in the playoffs.

That's where the eye test comes in, cause when I watch Ferland, I see a possession guy. Great puck and protection skills and great size and strength. He should be a possession guy. I think his problem is he doesn't realize how good he is and he dishes the puck off too soon to his linemates who probably aren't as good with possession. When Ferland is playing with plugs, he should just try and do it all himself.

[gunnner]

Originally Posted by belsarius

I think those stats really show what Ferland is, a heavy body and trigger guy. He is not a possession player and will not drive the play, thus his assist rate is barely unchanged. Plus playing with Gaudreau his actual time with a puck on his stick is way down, he is not responsible for carrying in and dishing, he is a bull down into the corner then open up into the slot for a chance. Its gives that line two trigger guys to watch out for which I think did open up room for Gaudreau to work. If you double team him you leave a prime goal scorer loose. Anaheim may have stifled this line on the score sheet but I think they got the chances still in the playoffs.

He also seemed to open up space for Monny and Johnny. They definitely played their best hockey with him on the line

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by gunnner

He also seemed to open up space for Monny and Johnny. They definitely played their best hockey with him on the line

and Gio and Hamilton playing at an incredibly high level (some say best pairing in the league).... so when the Flames made their run the 2nd half of the season the 5 man unit was commonly Gaudreau/Monahan/Gio/Hamilton and Ferland.

4 high skilled scoring guys and Ferland.

Playing with those 4 guys there should a lot of accidental clear off the boards points for the 5th guy.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

and Gio and Hamilton playing at an incredibly high level (some say best pairing in the league).... so when the Flames made their run the 2nd half of the season the 5 man unit was commonly Gaudreau/Monahan/Gio/Hamilton and Ferland.

4 high skilled scoring guys and Ferland.

Playing with those 4 guys there should a lot of accidental clear off the boards points for the 5th guy.

Micheal Ferland only had 10 assists last year, and they most certainly weren't all "accidental". As for the goals, well, AC's highlight videos
(plural!!!) should speak for themselves. Ferland has a devastating shot.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by 868904

That's where the eye test comes in, cause when I watch Ferland, I see a possession guy. Great puck and protection skills and great size and strength. He should be a possession guy. I think his problem is he doesn't realize how good he is and he dishes the puck off too soon to his linemates who probably aren't as good with possession. When Ferland is playing with plugs, he should just try and do it all himself.

For sure, but I think with Monahan and Gaudreau he adapted his style to fit them. By not being a possession player I was really focusing on his style once he was on that first line and commenting on how his stat line showed an big increase in goals but minimal in assists.

His play with plugs, as in before they tried him on the big line, I think was a lot more possession driven. I thought he was a driving factor on that fourth line and he carried, dished and shot the puck well. I'm sure a good reason for his promotion was how well he drove the bottom 6 line.

[mdubz]

Originally Posted by belsarius

Ferland was behind only Monahan in ES:TOI/G. Monahan put up a goal for every 64 mins of even-strength time on ice, Ferland, put up a goal every 64.5 mins.

So really add some PP time, give him a full season on the first line and if he doesn't show regression he could be good for 25 goals. I think him hitting 20 isn't unrealistic and is a good number to be on the top two lines.

Ferland also had an unsustainable shooting percentage that would not translate to an entire season.