Uh oh, NOAA Calls Rita A Potential Category 5

[KevanGuy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/210311.shtml



GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

[Cowperson]

Thought this was interesting . . . .

"And in another lesson from New Orleans' troubled evacuations, Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas (search) said residents who take the buses will be able to bring their pets with them, as long as the animals are caged.

"We found that so many people didn't want to leave New Orleans because they didn't want to leave their pets behind," she said."

It precludes large dogs like Goldens or Labs but still a step in the right direction. Its just an acknowlegement of the obvious and designed to save human lives.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,169845,00.html

Mrs. Cowperson and I were down in the Corpus Christi/Port Aransas area last year and thought the hurricane evacuation signage was a little spooky . . . . it goes on straight up to San Antonio, well away from the ocean.



Cowperson

[KevanGuy]

Well she's Cat 4 already. It was only last night that she became Cat 3. Although the flooding wont be as bad as NO the coastal damage could be right on par with what was seen with Katrina.

http://www.wesh.com/news/4940452/detail.html

[Cowperson]

But Galveston resident Shelly Rudd is staying and leaving her fate to God.

"All we can do is just pray. We'll be all right," said Rudd.

OH . . . . MY . . . . . GOD!!!

Cowperson

[Hakan]

Are we really to believe that climate change has nothing to do with the frequency and intensity of hurricanes this year?

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally posted by Cowperson@Sep 21 2005, 11:05 AM
But Galveston resident Shelly Rudd is staying and leaving her fate to God.

"All we can do is just pray. We'll be all right," said Rudd.

OH . . . . MY . . . . . GOD!!!

Cowperson

What a stupid lady.

"All we can do is pray."?????

Ahhh I think you could also get the hell out of there!!!!!!

[arsenal]

Originally posted by Hakan@Sep 21 2005, 11:08 AM
Are we really to believe that climate change has nothing to do with the frequency and intensity of hurricanes this year?

Well, the last time that there where this many hurricanes was back in 1933. And anything before that is unknown becuase they didn't start keeping track untill shortly before or after.

I still think they go in cycles. Some years there are lots, some years there aren't.
But the environmentalists will always say it is due to global warming.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally posted by Hakan@Sep 21 2005, 11:08 AM
Are we really to believe that climate change has nothing to do with the frequency and intensity of hurricanes this year?

That's a great idea. Let's take one year worth of data and apply that to a process that is occuring over decades and draw conclusions from that.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally posted by Cowperson@Sep 21 2005, 11:05 AM
But Galveston resident Shelly Rudd is staying and leaving her fate to God.

"All we can do is just pray. We'll be all right," said Rudd.

OH . . . . MY . . . . . GOD!!!

Cowperson

I hate to be callous, but damn that's one dumb lady.

I saw a woman on CNN today -- she had been evacuated from NO, her house destroyed, to Galveston, TX. Now she's being evacuated again from Galveston to who knows where. ANyhow, she said "I was planning on staying in Galveston permanently".

In other words, she moved from a town under the ocean to a town in the ocean.

Galveston may be a great town, but geez, that just seems crazy to me.

Also, they were already talking about the effect this is going to have on gas prices so today might be a good day to fill up the car because we all know that the gas under the gas station retroactively costs more.

[Barnes]

The debate isn't if global warming has something to do with the frequency and intensity of storms because it does. The debate is, are we as humans the cause of the climate change or is it something the Earth is doing on its own and we are just contributing to.
________
Cheap Uhc Revolver 937 938 Shell

[Fozzie_DeBear]

You see interviews with people who have just had their trailer...errr home destroyed and it goes something like

"I can't believe that I lost everything in this Tornado.....just like last year"

makes you wonder.....
________
Sharry

[Hakan]

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181#more-181

This article would suggest that climate change is not responsible for the frequency but it could be associated to the increased intensity. There are obviously no solid conclusions.

[Cowperson]

Coincidentally, the chief poohbah of the USA National Hurricane Center was addressing Congress today on this very matter:

Max Mayfield (search) told a congressional panel that he believes the Atlantic Ocean is in a cycle of increased hurricane activity that parallels an increase that started in the 1940s and ended in the 1960s.

The ensuing lull lasted until 1995, then "it's like somebody threw a switch," Mayfield said. The number and power of hurricanes increased dramatically.

Under questioning by members of the Senate Commerce subcommittee on disaster prevention and prediction (search), he shrugged off the notion that global warming played a role, saying instead it was a natural cycle in the Atlantic Ocean that fluctuates every 25 to 40 years.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,169969,00.html

Cowperson

[Hakan]

Originally posted by Barnes@Sep 21 2005, 11:21 AM
The debate isn't if global warming has something to do with the frequency and intensity of storms because it does. The debate is, are we as humans the cause of the climate change or is it something the Earth is doing on its own and we are just contributing to.

There's no real debate anymore. There's scientific consensus that anthropogenic warming is the cause and that this warming has triggered positive feedback mechanisms in the Earth. There only exists about 6-10 outspoken scientists who are critical of the theory but their criticisms have been relegated to small technical arguments of specific models and the like.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally posted by Fozzie_DeBear@Sep 21 2005, 12:22 PM
You see interviews with people who have just had their trailer...errr home destroyed and it goes something like

"I can't believe that I lost everything in this Tornado.....just like last year"

makes you wonder.....

Yep. And hurricanes inevitably bring the line "we rebuilt last time, we'll rebuild again" as they stand in the rubble, 50 yards from the Atlantic ocean.

[transplant99]

This article would suggest that climate change is not responsible for the frequency but it could be associated to the increased intensity. There are obviously no solid conclusions.

Its cyclical...always has been and always will be.

The whole El Nino effect if you will.

Every decade and a half or so, the Gulf warms up 2 or 3 degrees above normal levels.

This year happens to be a collaboration of a few things coming together. Warmer water is also in place off the Canary islands which is what spawns the tropical depressions that move westward. If they stay somewhat organized, when they reach the south Atlantic islands/waters, they have a better chance of becoming storms. Then if they last that long, a natural tendency is for them to move N/NW into the gulf (depending on the jet stream) where they really pick up energy, or N/NE where they eventually just go and fizzle out over the cooler waters of the N Atlantic.

Its just a recipe for major 'canes this year with many elements all falling into place at once.

The whole "global-warming" thing really has no part in what we are seeing this year.

[Resolute 14]

Originally posted by Hakan@Sep 21 2005, 11:25 AM
There's no real debate anymore. There's scientific consensus that anthropogenic warming is the cause and that this warming has triggered positive feedback mechanisms in the Earth. There only exists about 6-10 outspoken scientists who are critical of the theory but their criticisms have been relegated to small technical arguments of specific models and the like.

Two different arguments.

The first is how much of an impact we are causing in supposedly accellerating global warming - and really, that is completely up in the air, especially since there is growing debate about the validity of the science behind Kyoto.


The second is whether global warming - manmade or otherwise - is responsible for the increase in the number and severity of these storms.

On the second question, the logical answer is no. If it were the case, there would be statistically trackable proof of an increase in number and severity of hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones through a reasonable sample of years.

However, as has been mentioned, the number and severity of hurricanes is cyclical, and we are currently in an upswing of that.

[Hakan]

You just proved my point Snakeye. The best you could come up with is (typically) McKittrick's critique of the hockey stick. Unfortunately his critique doesn't hold much water as it is only focused on one or two inputs to the model (I believe tree rings and something) while discounting these inputs, the model still comes up with the same essential data.

Besides non-hockey stick models which still show that human activities are the major source of mean global temperature increase are still valid along with the thousands of scrutinous scientists who are working on this.

As I said, most critique now is very specific and directed at certain calculation and data sets. But there are inumerable amounts of other models and data sets which corroborate the findings of the models in question. Really, there is no debate on if it's happening or if human's are responsible. The only debate is how fast and how severe.

Here's an article highlighting the hockey stick argument critique and it's flaws.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=11

[arsenal]

There was an article that I read, (I believe it is (was) a series on "junk science") from the national post, regarding this very theory.

The argument was, that given completely random inputs to the model, it should produce rather random results. The finding was that even with completely random inputs, the output from the model still produces the "hockey stick" result.

Now, this to me does not sound like a completely un-biased scientific result. But that is just me.

I will see if I can find a link to the story.

[KevanGuy]

BATON DOWN THAT HATCHES MARTHA!

I just heard on the radio she has reached Cat 5. Look out Texas! Now the Million Dollar Question is whether or not it can maintain this pace and strength for another 50 when it hits land. Even Katrina was Cat 4 when it hit. Imagine a 5, imagine a strong 5! Crazy.