11-07-2016, 08:02 AM
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#1
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Are you Smarter than Nate Silver-- US Election Prediction Thread
Put in your election predictions here. YOu can just do the swing states if you would like. Anything not predicted here will defer to Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight final map. Predictions are due at 9:00 Am MST Tuesday Nov 8
Swing States
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Florida
Ohio
Penn
NC
Mich
Wisconsin
Virginia
Colorado
Nevada
Minn
NH
Iowa
Maine
Maine Districts
Nebraska 2nd
Senate Seats
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North Carolina
Missouri
NH
Indiana
Nevada
Penn
Florida
Wisconsin
Arizona
Popular Vote
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Clinton
Trump
Other
Last edited by GGG; 11-07-2016 at 10:15 AM.
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11-07-2016, 08:06 AM
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#2
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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My current list
I'm going with Clinton out performs national polls by two points due to ground game. She does not win NC due to all of the voter suppression efforts. This isn't quite enough to win Ohio or Arizona or Georgia but does get them Missouri in the senate so control the senate 51-49
Swing States
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Florida - D
Ohio - R
Penn - D
NC - R
Mich - D
Wisconsin -D
Virginia -D
Colorado -D
Nevada -D
Minn -D
NH -D
Iowa -R
Maine + Districts - D
Nebraska 2nd - R
Senate Seats
-----------------
North Carolina - R
Missouri - D
NH - D
Indiana - R
Nevada - D
Penn - D
Florida - R
Wisconsin - D
Arizona - R
Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton. 50.5
Trump 45.5
Other 4
Last edited by GGG; 11-07-2016 at 08:28 PM.
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11-07-2016, 08:48 AM
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#3
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Franchise Player
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I am definitely not smarter than Nate but here is how I'll divide the states:
Swing States
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Florida - R
Ohio - R
Penn - D
NC - D
Mich - R
Wisconsin - R
Virginia - D
Colorado - R
Wisconson - R
Nevada - D
Minn - R
NH - D
Iowa - R
Popular Vote
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Clinton - 47%
Trump - 47%
Other - 6%
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11-07-2016, 10:08 AM
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#4
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I believe in the Jays.
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I'm not even close to as smart as Nate Silver (to say nothing of smarter) but here are my predictions anyways...
Swing States
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Florida - Clinton
Ohio - Trump
Penn - Clinton
NC - Clinton
Mich - Clinton
Wisconsin - Clinton
Virginia - Clinton
Colorado - Clinton
Nevada - Clinton
Minn - Clinton
NH - Clinton
Iowa - Trump
Senate Seats
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North Carolina - GOP
Missouri - DNC
NH - DNC
Indiana - GOP
Nevada - DNC
Penn - DNC
Florida - GOP
Wisconsin - DNC
Arizona - GOP
Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 45
Other - 6%
Additional Predictions: Clinton wins Arizona, Pot becomes legalized in California, Darrell Issa loses in California, GOP continues to control the HoR. Trump wins Texas... but by a relatively small margin (relative to how much the GOP candidate usually takes that state).
Last edited by Parallex; 11-07-2016 at 10:13 AM.
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11-07-2016, 10:10 AM
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#5
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Franchise Player
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You have Wisconsin in there twice (second time spelled creatively). Also might want to add Maine statewide and Maine districts and remove Minnesota (which is pretty safe).
I'm tempted to go with the doomsday worst case scenario here so that if the world comes to an end tomorrow, at least I can gloat about predicting our collective downfall accurately.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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The Following User Says Thank You to CorsiHockeyLeague For This Useful Post:
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11-07-2016, 10:12 AM
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#6
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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11-07-2016, 10:13 AM
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#7
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Draft Pick
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Swing States
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Florida- D
Ohio- D
Penn- R
NC- R
Mich- D
Wisconsin- R
Virginia- R
Colorado- D
Nevada- R
Minn- R
NH- D
Iowa- D
Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton +1%
Trump
Other
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11-07-2016, 10:13 AM
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#8
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First Line Centre
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Swing States
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Florida- D
Ohio- R
Penn- D
NC- R
Mich- D
Wisconsin- D
Virginia- D
Colorado- D
Wisconson- listed twice
Nevada- D
Minn- D
NH- D
Iowa- D
I'm going to add Arizona- R as a swing state.
Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton- 48%
Trump- 42%
Johnson- 5%
Stein- 2%
Write-in/Spoiled ballot- 3%
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11-07-2016, 10:15 AM
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#9
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I believe in the Jays.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
Also might want to add Maine statewide and Maine districts and remove Minnesota (which is pretty safe).
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If you do that then you should also add Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (AKA Omaha) which likewise splits it's EC votes.
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11-07-2016, 10:56 AM
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#10
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Lifetime Suspension
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"Brexit x 5" happens. Hope I'm wrong.
Swing States
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Florida TRUMP
Ohio TRUMP
Penn HILLARY
NC TRUMP
Mich HILLARY
Wisconsin HILLARY
Virginia HILLARY
Colorado TRUMP
Nevada TRUMP
NH TRUMP
Iowa TRUMP
Maine HILLARY
Maine Districts HILLARY/TRUMP
Nebraska 2nd TRUMP
Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton 47%
Trump 48%
Other 5%
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11-07-2016, 11:12 AM
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#11
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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Surprised to see people awarding states to Trump he has like <20% chance of winning.
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11-07-2016, 11:17 AM
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#12
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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Swing States
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Florida D
Ohio R
Penn D
NC D
Mich D
Wisconsin D
Virginia D
Colorado D
Nevada D
Minn D
NH D
Iowa R
Maine D
Maine Districts D
Nebraska 2nd R
Senate Seats
-----------------
North Carolina R
Missouri R
NH D
Indiana R
Nevada D
Penn D
Florida R
Wisconsin D
Arizona R
Popular Vote
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Clinton 48
Trump 45
Other 7
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The Following User Says Thank You to burn_this_city For This Useful Post:
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11-07-2016, 11:46 AM
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#13
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Estonia
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Swing States
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Florida - D
Ohio - R
Penn- D
NC - D
Mich - D
Wisconsin - D
Virginia - D
Colorado - D
Nevada - D
Minn - R
NH - D
Iowa - D
Maine - D
Senate Seats
-----------------
North Carolina - R
Missouri - D
NH - R
Indiana - R
Nevada - R
Penn - R
Florida - D
Wisconsin - D
Arizona - R
Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton +3
Trump
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11-07-2016, 03:26 PM
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#14
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Deep South
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city
Surprised to see people awarding states to Trump he has like <20% chance of winning.
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I think most people are grossly underestimating how likely it is that a 20% chance event occurs. Trump is probably closer to 30% or so right now because the national margin of about 3 points is narrow enough that a few percentage point error could flip a lot of states.
If you rolled a die once and Trump became president if it was a 5 or a 6, how confident would you feel in that event not occuring?
As for predictions:
Swing States
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Florida - R
Ohio - R
Penn - D
NC - R
Mich - D
Wisconsin - D
Virginia - D
Colorado - D
Nevada - D
Minn - D
NH - R
Iowa - D
Maine - D
Maine Districts - Split
Nebraska 2nd - R
Senate Seats - No idea so I'll leave this alone
Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 46%
Other - 7%
__________________
Much like a sports ticker, you may feel obligated to read this
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11-07-2016, 03:35 PM
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#15
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Retired
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrkajz44
If you rolled a die once and Trump became president if it was a 5 or a 6, how confident would you feel in that event not occuring?
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I'm not pining for a statistical debate, however, my own understanding is while Trump would have 1/3 chance under your example, and I don't claim its invalid, you can't really compare months of polls to a simple die roll. If you assume he has a 1/3 chance, rolling a die does not account for the actual likelihood.
That being said, if I'm wrong and Trump does become president on a 5 or 6 on a die roll, that terrifies me.
The only prediction I'll make is Trump takes Florida, but loses the electoral vote. Those Floridians, they're nuts.
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11-07-2016, 04:02 PM
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#16
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Franchise Player
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The way it seems to be heading is that Clinton needs to win 1 of 3 coin flips to avoid a fourth. She can win one of these swing states: Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and she's President IMO. If she loses all 3 of those coin flips, then she has to flip a weighted coin in New Hampshire. If that flip ends in her favor as it should, she still is President.
Closer than it should be. I'm still deeply disappointed by the people of Ohio and Iowa.
EDIT: So after reading the OP more closely, I guess that means I predict the following:
Swing States
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Florida - Trump
Ohio - Trump
Penn - Clinton
NC - Clinton
Mich - Clinton
Wisconsin - Clinton
Virginia - Clinton
Colorado - Clinton
Nevada - Clinton
Minn - Clinton
NH - Clinton
Iowa - Trump
Maine - Clinton
Maine Districts - 1 each
Nebraska 2nd - Trump
Last edited by Finger Cookin; 11-07-2016 at 04:40 PM.
Reason: More specific predicitions + map
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11-07-2016, 04:28 PM
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#17
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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I believe that Clinton outperforms expectations.
Swing States:
- FLA: Clinton
- NC: Clinton
- Wisconsin: Definitely Clinton
- New Hampshire: Definitely Clinton
- Ohio: Trump
- Michigan: Definitely Clinton
- Nevada: Clinton
- New Mexico: Clinton
- Colorado: Clinton
- Pennsylvania: Clinton
Final Vote tally:
Clinton 52%
Trump 43%
Johnson 3%
Stein: 2%
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11-07-2016, 05:00 PM
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#18
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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Predicting a 269-269 electoral college tie. Why such the bold claim you might ask? I just think that this election cycle has been so horrible, that is not done making us all suffer yet.
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11-07-2016, 06:46 PM
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#19
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Calgary
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Swing States
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Florida - D
Ohio - R
Penn - D
NC - D
Mich - D
Wisconsin - D
Virginia - D
Colorado - D
Nevada - D
Minn - D
NH - D
Iowa - R
Maine - D
Maine Districts - D
Nebraska 2nd - R
ARIZONA - D
Senate Seats
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North Carolina - D
Missouri - R
NH - D
Indiana - R
Nevada - D
Penn - D
Florida - R
Wisconsin - D
Arizona - R
Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton - 49 %
Trump - 44 %
Other - 7 %
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11-07-2016, 06:56 PM
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#20
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Franchise Player
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...
Last edited by Lanny_McDonald; 11-07-2016 at 06:59 PM.
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