TheScorpion's 2016-17 Calgary Flames Season Preview | Part 2: Defence

[TheScorpion]

Despite multiple analysts' projections placing them near the bottom of the NHL's standings, the Calgary Flames enjoyed an unexpectedly-successful season in 2014-15, which culminated in a trip to the second round of the playoffs and resulted in high hopes for the future. Instead, the Flames lost a step in 2015-16, falling 20 points from 2014-15 to end with a lowly 77 points, 10 out of a playoff spot.

Now, entering the 2016-17 season, the Flames have many reasons both to hope for the future, and to draw doubt from the past. The team has been historically poor analytically under the tutelage of coach Bob Hartley -- now that he's been replaced by former Stars coach and Canucks assistant Glen Gulutzan, how will the Flames respond?

Jonas Hiller, Karri Ramo, Joni Ortio, and Niklas Backstrom made up the Flames' goaltending tandem last season. None of these goaltenders hold NHL contracts for the 2016-17 season, which is indicative of their quality of play in 2015-16. Statistically, the Flames' goaltenders were the worst in the NHL last season, and Hiller was the worst player at his position. These four players have been replaced by Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson for the 2016-17 season, who both posted save percentages above .920% last year; however, neither have ever played more than 55 games in a season. Though they both have exemplary statistical records, will they be able to hold up over the regular season grind?

I'll attempt to answer these questions and more in this, my preview of the Calgary Flames' 2016-17 season.

Yesterday, we covered the forwards. Today, we’ll talk about the defence. On Wednesday, we’ll discuss goaltending, and lastly, on Thursday, we’ll discuss prospects and management.

The Calgary Flames had the worst defensive record in the NHL last season, letting in an atrocious 3.1 GA/G. This was mostly due to their goaltending woes, but also in part because of some defensive struggles. T.J. Brodie was injured for the first half of the season, and Dougie Hamilton took a while to really adjust to the Flames' system. These and other problems contributed to such an awful season defensively for the club.

Here’s my projection (or best guess) for the Flames’ defence pairings in 2016-17:

Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Jyrki Jokipakka - Dougie Hamilton
Deryk Engelland - Dennis Wideman
Tyler Wotherspoon

Two-time All-Star Mark Giordano led the Flames' D in scoring last season with career highs in both goals (21 -- good for second amongst all NHL defencemen behind Brent Burns) and points (56). As Giordano ages, those totals should go down a little, but right now, he's one of the best defensemen in the game. He has elite puck-moving skills and great leadership capabilities, and, as the 2016 NHL Foundation Player Award winner, is a pillar in the Calgary community. The Flames' captain should have another banner year in 2016-17 as the Flames improve.
Projection: 16 goals, 39 assists, 55 points

As good as Giordano is, there may be another defenceman on the Flames better than him: T.J. Brodie. Brodie is a swift skater with a fantastic stretch pass, and at just 26 years old, he's still improving. The Flames improved considerably after Brodie returned from his hand injury in November of last year, and hopefully, having him healthy and in the lineup will result in a much better record in 2016-17. Say what you will about Johnny Hockey -- and there's a lot to say -- but there may not be a more important player to the Flames than T.J. Brodie.
Projection: 6 goals, 43 assists, 49 points

Acquired from Boston for a 1st-round pick and two 2nd-round picks at the 2015 NHL Draft, Dougie Hamilton took a while to come into his own last season. Faced with the prospect of adapting to a new Calgary defensive system, Hamilton played poorly in the first few weeks of 2015-16, frequently looking outmatched in his own zone. However, he picked his game up as the season progressed, and finished the year with career highs in both goals and points. The former 9th-overall pick is still only 23, and should form a top pairing with T.J. Brodie following the departure of Mark Giordano. For now, however, he'll likely continue to develop on the second pairing.
Projection: 11 goals, 36 assists, 47 points

Kris Russell was traded to Dallas for a King's ransom last season, with the package returning to Calgary including prospect Brett Pollock and a potential 1st-round pick. However, aside from the conditional 1st (which turned into a second as its conditions were not met), the most intriguing name in the deal was Jyrki Jokipakka, for two reasons. First, it's fun to say. But second, Jokipakka was a relative unknown at the time of the deal. A 7th-round pick of Dallas in 2011, Jokipakka has mainly toiled away from the spotlight either on the bottom pairing in Dallas or on the top pairing with the Texas Stars, their AHL affiliate. Thrust into a top-four position in Calgary, Jokipakka played 18 games and recorded six points. How did he do? Well, the reviews were mixed, but all signs point to the 25-year-old Jokipakka continuing to develop in the #4 defenceman spot next year.
Projection: 2 goals, 13 assists, 15 points

If you would have told me that Dennis Wideman would've followed his 15-goal 2014-15 season with a 2-goal 2015-16 season in which he was suspended for 20 games and sued by the NHL itself for cross-checking a linesman from behind, I'd have called you bizarrely specific in your predictions and would recommend counselling. However, along with some other twists and turns, that's exactly what happened to Dennis this past year. As he's entering the final year of his mammoth five-year deal in 2016-17, don't expect another 15-goal season... but don't expect a 2-goal year, either. Used correctly, Wideman is a dangerous weapon on the powerplay. He may not hit even 10 goals, but he'll be a scoring threat, for sure.
Projection: 7 goals, 27 assists, 34 points

Deryk Engelland's 3-year, $8.7 million contract was widely ridiculed when it was first signed in July 2014. This was a career bottom-pairing defenceman who was now receiving a fivefold salary increase over his previous contract. However, Engelland has found a niche in the Flames' bottom six. He brings grit and toughness to a defence corps often lacking in those two attributes, and manages to chip in the odd goal, too. He'll never be a huge offensive force, but Engelland is a sturdy #6 defenceman for this team.
Projection: 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points

Tyler Wotherspoon has the #7 defenceman slot open for him, if he can take it in training camp. Recalled multiple times during Bob Hartley's tenure as Flames coach, Wotherspoon has received little-to-no playing time in only 26 games over the past three seasons. Under new coach Glen Gulutzan, perhaps he'll receive more chances to prove himself.
Projection: 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points

Hampered by neck injuries since his arrival in Calgary, Ladislav Smid remains on the roster entering 2016-17. However, Smid is expected to be placed on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) prior to the season's beginning, and as such is unlikely to play for the Flames this season. Entering the final season of his contract, Smid may have played his last NHL game.
Projection: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points

Finally, though they have not received contracts, there have been two names floating around as possible late-summer additions to the Flames: Kris Russell and Jakub Nakladal. Russell was a Flame until late February 2016 when he was traded to Dallas, but he has not signed a contract yet this summer as a UFA. There have been whispers linking him back to Calgary, so stay tuned.

Jakub Nakladal made his NHL debut late last season, and proceeded to become a fan favourite in Calgary. His scary eyes, his laser shot, his name... there are many fans who would love to see him back (points to signature).

The question is: where would these guys fit in? Do the Flames move Wideman, or push Wotherspoon back down to the AHL? Only Brad Treliving may know the answers. Until then:
No projections

(Again, for those of you counting, that's 45 goals from the defence. That totals 246 goals altogether for the club, which is a high figure, I know. These predictions are made with the belief that the Flames will finish second in the Pacific Division next year. But that's for a later article)

Check back tomorrow afternoon as I preview the Calgary Flames' goaltending. Again, I hope you enjoyed this, or at least have something new to talk about. If my grammar/math is wrong, please don't hesitate to tell me.

TL;DR -- The Flames have defencemen who are masters at sentence structure, yada yada yada, lol.

[TheScorpion]

By the way, everyone, these are all being posted at /r/CalgaryFlames, and on my website.

Edit: website link: https://followingtheflames.blogspot....preview_6.html

And it's officially up on Reddit now.

[Lil Pedro]

Great write up I enjoyed the read!

Not trying to pile on this guy but I really hope this is the last season that we have Engelland on the team. Hope either an Anderson, Kylington, Wotherspoon, Kulak guy can fill that role next year.

[IgiTang]

Engalland is the only Dman in the organization that knows how to move bodies from infront of the net. Until that issue is addressed, we need Engalland.

[Weitz]

I think the goals from the D will be less with a more defensive system in place.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I think the goals from the D will be less with a more defensive system in place.

That's quite possible. But, if we have better break outs, offense might even increase.

[CroFlames]

Engelland doesn't get he respect he deserves.

Do people expect him to be a 1/2 d-man? He is not that. He's a bottom pair guy who play physical (which is what you need) but has the hockey IQ to pinch hit on the 2nd pairing.

Engelland was not the problem last season. It was Wideman and his big contract. I agree Engelland has run his course in Calgary and should be gone at the deadline or in the summer, but he played his role well in Calgary.

Beating 2 Canucks at 1 time will go down in Flames lore forever.

[Loudog]

I'm not really sure what to expect from Kevin this year. I love what I saw in his small sample size with the club but he has yet to put in a full NHL season. I don't pencil him in as #4 but I'm excited to see where he shakes out. I'm hoping Wotherspoon makes a good push this year.

[Oil Stain]

Obviously put a fair bit of work into this, but I think its a little overly optimistic in combination with the forwards preview.

Every core player is either hitting a career high or within 2 points of it.

Gaudreau, Monahan, Giordano, Backlund, Brodie, Hamilton, Frolik, Brouwer all having career years or essentially matching their best seasons.

Not only that, but you have Shinkaruk, and Bennett putting up 40 and 50 points respectively.

I think there just isn't enough icetime to go around for that to be possible.

That's 10 players with 40+ points. I don't think any team in the NHL had more than 7 last season from a quick scan on HockeyDB.

[TheScorpion]

^ these predictions are best-case scenario predictions. There will be injuries, trades, etc. Plus homerism. You know.

[Jason14h]

Engelland doesn't get he respect he deserves.

Where is he being disrespected?

The facts are he makes a lot of money for what he brings. He is a 5-6 D on a playoff team. Nothing wrong with him for getting paid, and people seem fairly fine with his actual skill set. However, in a cap world it's all about value. He does not earn the value of his contract.

[JiriHrdina]

This is a general problem with almost all predictions made this time of year - I made the same comment about the Forecaster preview.
For some reason the individual player projections are almost always too optimistic.
Young players are all given a bigger boost than they are likely to achieve, rookies are projected to have higher point totals that are likely, and few vets are predicted to suffer huge declines (many are predicted to have bounce backs).

So let's try to do something here that is far more reasonable:
Mark Gio:
Show signs of a minor decline while remaining productive: 16 goals, 35A: 51 points

TJ Brodie
Takes the next step as an elite all around dman, but at the expense of some points:
7 goals, 25A: 32 points

Doug Hamilton
Similar to Brodie, evolves as a better all around dman, but sees some reduction in his offensviev production:
10 goals, 25 assists: 35 points

Jyrki Jokipakka:
Not a lot of offense expected, or received:
3 goals, 10 assists: 13 points

Dennis Wideman
Becomes a part time player. In and of the lineup as the fall off continues
3 goals, 15 assists: 18 points

Deryk Engelland
Is what he is
1 goal, 6 assists: 7 points

7th guy (Wotherspoon and whoever else):
6 goals, 10 assists: 16 points

46 goals total. What was it last year?
Point totals down more overall though. Less offense overall, but a maturation of the blueline when it comes to the overall games from Hamilton and Brodie, coupled with a systems change.

[MarkGio]

I see Wideman traded with 50% retained and the line-ups being something like this:

Giordano - Brodie
Kylington - Hamilton
Jokipakka - Engelland
Wotherspoon

[Jason14h]

What is the point in trading wideman with 50% retained at this point unless we believe we can't crack top 7!

Fair enough if you dont think he can.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

What is the point in trading wideman with 50% retained at this point unless we believe we can't crack top 7!

Fair enough if you dont think he can.

With Wideman I think he's a top 4. The head coach already said he's excited about having "four 40 point defensemen".

I think Wideman bounces back to norm

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

This is a general problem with almost all predictions made this time of year - I made the same comment about the Forecaster preview.
For some reason the individual player projections are almost always too optimistic.
Young players are all given a bigger boost than they are likely to achieve, rookies are projected to have higher point totals that are likely, and few vets are predicted to suffer huge declines (many are predicted to have bounce backs).

So let's try to do something here that is far more reasonable:
Mark Gio:
Show signs of a minor decline while remaining productive: 16 goals, 35A: 51 points

TJ Brodie
Takes the next step as an elite all around dman, but at the expense of some points:
7 goals, 25A: 32 points

Doug Hamilton
Similar to Brodie, evolves as a better all around dman, but sees some reduction in his offensviev production:
10 goals, 25 assists: 35 points

Jyrki Jokipakka:
Not a lot of offense expected, or received:
3 goals, 10 assists: 13 points

Dennis Wideman
Becomes a part time player. In and of the lineup as the fall off continues
3 goals, 15 assists: 18 points

Deryk Engelland
Is what he is
1 goal, 6 assists: 7 points

7th guy (Wotherspoon and whoever else):
6 goals, 10 assists: 16 points

46 goals total. What was it last year?
Point totals down more overall though. Less offense overall, but a maturation of the blueline when it comes to the overall games from Hamilton and Brodie, coupled with a systems change.

I agree with your point that write-ups are usually too optimistic. But if the Flames D doesn't generate as much offence, or close to as the last couple seasons, our offensive depth suddenly plummets team wide.

No one has pointed offence as being one of the teams issues the last couple years and rightfully so. But with both Hamilton and Brodie not cracking 40 pts, suddenly it does become an issue.

Personally I can see Brodie cracking 50 pts if he stays healthy while still maintaining his strong defensive play. Brodie IMO is ready for a real break out season. Gio should come close to 50 if he's healthy and I see Hamilton breaking 40 again.

Obviously the coach will be looking to find the right balance. Cutting down on the GAA is certainly the biggest priority. But as of now the Flames have 4 potential D that could break 40 pts (Wideman included if everything goes right for him). Most team have 1 or 2. I don't see any reason the Flames can't cut down on GAA, while still having a high scoring defensive unit.

Wishful thinking on my part and maybe I'm also being too optimistic. But unlike many teams, the Flames actually have the personnel on the backend to make it happen.

[Mony]

Good writeups Scorpion, really enjoying these.

[ricardodw]

Flames defense TOI in March 2016 w/o Russell and Wideman

Mark Giordano, D 25:11
T.J. Brodie, D 24:33
Deryk Engelland, D 21:42
Dougie Hamilton, D 21:12
Jyrki Jokipakka, D 17:22
Jakub Nakladal, D 14:45

The best +/- was Engelland with a +1.

With the idea of cutting Goals against from 260 to 210 (only Nashville with 15 and Dallas 230 made the playoffs in the west giving up more than 210 goals) look for Engelland to get more ice time than expected and Hamilton less... more of a PP specialist.

I do not think that Hiller gave up 50 soft goals of the 79 he let in.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Flames defense TOI in March 2016 w/o Russell and Wideman

Mark Giordano, D 25:11
T.J. Brodie, D 24:33
Deryk Engelland, D 21:42
Dougie Hamilton, D 21:12
Jyrki Jokipakka, D 17:22
Jakub Nakladal, D 14:45

The best +/- was Engelland with a +1.

With the idea of cutting Goals against from 260 to 210 (only Nashville with 15 and Dallas 230 made the playoffs in the west giving up more than 210 goals) look for Engelland to get more ice time than expected and Hamilton less... more of a PP specialist.

I do not think that Hiller gave up 50 soft goals of the 79 he let in.

I don't agree that the only way for the Flames to improve is to play Engelland more and Hamilton less, in particular if you are basing that on +/-.
I am more interested in seeing what that group produced for goals against in March 2016. Extrapolated over a full year what would the total be? This, before a clear upgrade in net...

[IgiTang]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Flames defense TOI in March 2016 w/o Russell and Wideman

Mark Giordano, D 25:11
T.J. Brodie, D 24:33
Deryk Engelland, D 21:42
Dougie Hamilton, D 21:12
Jyrki Jokipakka, D 17:22
Jakub Nakladal, D 14:45

The best +/- was Engelland with a +1.

With the idea of cutting Goals against from 260 to 210 (only Nashville with 15 and Dallas 230 made the playoffs in the west giving up more than 210 goals) look for Engelland to get more ice time than expected and Hamilton less... more of a PP specialist.

I do not think that Hiller gave up 50 soft goals of the 79 he let in.

Sure Hiller didn't let in 50 bad goals of 79... But his 2 counter parts also contributed to the bad goals.

That said, the entire defensive system was in shambles last year. From start to finish and from the net out (Fwds, D and Goalies).

But like you said yourself, 2 teams with over 210 goals made the playoffs.

So if the Flames can cut the GA by 30-40, which I have no doubt they can (new system, new goalie and a healthy and season ready Gio and Brodie).

So.. Playing Engalland more isn't the solution, other factors turning for the positive which again, I don't see why they won't, then we are on the cusp and competing for a playoff spot.