Interesting Haynes article: Flames future bright

[Reggie Dunlop]

Still missing some key pieces moving forward, but Flames young core is is leading the way.

http://www.flamesfrom80feet.ca/2016/...re-relied.html

[Calgary4LIfe]

If you are a Flames' fan, or a stats fan - or even better yet, an obscure trivia stats fan - Darren Haynes is required reading. Always insightful and just downright fun to read.

[MarkGio]

Here's my prediction to the Stanley Cup winning Flames roster

30 goal scorers
Gaudreau
Monahan

20 goal scorers
Backlund
Bennett
Colborne
Laine

40 point defensemen
Brodie
Hamilton
Giordano
Andersson

0.915+ Goalies
Ortio
Gillies

[GreenLantern]

So basically that article is saying if the Flames had Luongo they would be leading their division.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

So basically that article is saying if the Flames had Luongo they would be leading their division.

If the Flames had a goalie putting up a .918 sv%, they would have surrendered 45 fewer goals (not counting the 4-5 fewer empty netters because of the fewer losses)

If you look at it that way, our goal differential would be in the positive by about 10. That would put us in the same ball park as Minnesota, which the Flames would probably be in a dog fight with right now.

Yes it's simplistic to say that the lack of goaltending is the cause of the current situation, but it is a large part of it.

The Flames basically have 1/2 of their team being that of a contender and the other half being that of a bottom end AHL team.

Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Frolik, Colborne, and Backlund are all high quality top 9 forwards, Gio Brodie and Hamilton are one of the top 1-3 defender groups in the NHL.

Every other player has played terribly this year save Deryk Engelland, who has played at a very Deryk Engelland like level. The other 11 players on the team are all replaceable, some preferably sooner than later.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

If the Flames had a goalie putting up a .918 sv%, they would have surrendered 45 fewer goals (not counting the 4-5 fewer empty netters because of the fewer losses)

If you look at it that way, our goal differential would be in the positive by about 10. That would put us in the same ball park as Minnesota, which the Flames would probably be in a dog fight with right now.

Yes it's simplistic to say that the lack of goaltending is the cause of the current situation, but it is a large part of it.

The Flames basically have 1/2 of their team being that of a contender and the other half being that of a bottom end AHL team.

Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Frolik, Colborne, and Backlund are all high quality top 9 forwards, Gio Brodie and Hamilton are one of the top 1-3 defender groups in the NHL.

Every other player has played terribly this year save Deryk Engelland, who has played at a very Deryk Engelland like level. The other 11 players on the team are all replaceable, some preferably sooner than later.

Fair remarks. One minor objection is the glossing over of the top 3 d.

Hamilton is young and though I like his game generally, has had some absolutely spectacular and costly failures. Rakell cleanly skating around him in December (?). Another 1 goal game, I forget the opponent, he skated in to 4 opponents on the blue line and turned over for a goal going the other way (St Louis, perhaps?). Then the recent game where he just dropped his assignment (Chicago I think?). Anyways, the guy has a brutal October which is at this point forgivable, but has had some really untimely lapses since. Again, I generally think he is very good offensively but when I went to the Boston game and sat next to a Boston fan, he outlined their frustrations with him which pop up too often. Again, it's not the ceiling, it is the consistency that matters game in and game out

Then there is Brodie's sweet cough up to the hash marks last week

Let's face it, the team is bottom 20 percent of the league and the blame for several untimely and costly goals in terms of points extends beyond the goaltenders.

And don't get me wrong, Hiller has been consistently dreadful, and Backstrom has had one good outing,

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Fair remarks. One minor objection is the glossing over of the top 3 d.

Hamilton is young and though I like his game generally, has had some absolutely spectacular and costly failures. Rakell cleanly skating around him in December (?). Another 1 goal game, I forget the opponent, he skated in to 4 opponents on the blue line and turned over for a goal going the other way (St Louis, perhaps?). Then the recent game where he just dropped his assignment (Chicago I think?). Anyways, the guy has a brutal October which is at this point forgivable, but has had some really untimely lapses since. Again, I generally think he is very good offensively but when I went to the Boston game and sat next to a Boston fan, he outlined their frustrations with him which pop up too often. Again, it's not the ceiling, it is the consistency that matters game in and game out

Then there is Brodie's sweet cough up to the hash marks last week

Think you're being way too harsh and dramatic.

We could say the same things of Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook based on just the games we saw Calgary play them this season. Great players (especially defenders) who play 20 to 25+ minutes are going to get burned from time to time.

Of all the things he said, I don't see that as an issue at all.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Fair remarks. One minor objection is the glossing over of the top 3 d.

Hamilton is young and though I like his game generally, has had some absolutely spectacular and costly failures. Rakell cleanly skating around him in December (?). Another 1 goal game, I forget the opponent, he skated in to 4 opponents on the blue line and turned over for a goal going the other way (St Louis, perhaps?). Then the recent game where he just dropped his assignment (Chicago I think?). Anyways, the guy has a brutal October which is at this point forgivable, but has had some really untimely lapses since. Again, I generally think he is very good offensively but when I went to the Boston game and sat next to a Boston fan, he outlined their frustrations with him which pop up too often. Again, it's not the ceiling, it is the consistency that matters game in and game out

Then there is Brodie's sweet cough up to the hash marks last week

Let's face it, the team is bottom 20 percent of the league and the blame for several untimely and costly goals in terms of points extends beyond the goaltenders.

And don't get me wrong, Hiller has been consistently dreadful, and Backstrom has had one good outing,

For sure, all three of the top D have had bad stretches and brain farts. Not even going to argue that. Fatigue, coming off injuries, and adapting to new systems all cause problems. If the Flames had a quality 4-5-6 throughout the season it would take pressure off those guys. Unfortunately...

BT is going to have a lot of fun this offseason trying to fix things.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Caged Great
If the Flames had a goalie putting up a .918 sv%, they would have surrendered 45 fewer goals (not counting the 4-5 fewer empty netters because of the fewer losses)

I looked at league average for save % and it's .915 with a GAA of 2.70. Expecting more than that is maybe foolhardy and with our gambling defence maybe a more realistic goal would be say .912%. Going with the league average that would give us 38 fewer goals against. We'd still have a positive difference of +5 which would put us in the fight for the playoffs.

As for our defence, I don't think a lot of changes are needed. Jokipakka and Nakladal look fine as part of our bottom three with their solid play while giving us an increase in size. Engelland is looking good playing with Giordano as well despite the hate around here for him. It's hard to imagine a 34 year old improving his game but I think he has. Wideman could still be an okay alternative as well if he can accept a lesser role. Don't forget Wotherspoon either, I think he looks ready.

[gunnner]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

If the Flames had a goalie putting up a .918 sv%, they would have surrendered 45 fewer goals (not counting the 4-5 fewer empty netters because of the fewer losses)

If you look at it that way, our goal differential would be in the positive by about 10. That would put us in the same ball park as Minnesota, which the Flames would probably be in a dog fight with right now.

Yes it's simplistic to say that the lack of goaltending is the cause of the current situation, but it is a large part of it.

The Flames basically have 1/2 of their team being that of a contender and the other half being that of a bottom end AHL team.

Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Frolik, Colborne, and Backlund are all high quality top 9 forwards, Gio Brodie and Hamilton are one of the top 1-3 defender groups in the NHL.

Every other player has played terribly this year save Deryk Engelland, who has played at a very Deryk Engelland like level. The other 11 players on the team are all replaceable, some preferably sooner than later.

The other side of that theory is that the flames give up a high ratio of quality chances to shots so an expected drop in save % for a goalie who plays here is a fair assumption.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Just to touch on the idea of Hamilton's lapses, where Brodie was also briefly mentioned, let's look at the turnover ratio. I know these stats aren't kept well consistently, but it's still a starting point to figure out why the Flames struggled this year.

Dougie Hamilton
2015-16: Giveaways 59, Takeaways 15. Ratio: 3.93
2014-15: Giveaways 45, Takeaways 24. Ratio: 1.875

So going from Boston to Calgary more than doubled his turnover ratio.

T.J. Brodie
2015-16: Giveaways 82, Takeaways 45. Ratio: 1.82
2014-15: Giveaways 88, Takeaways 71. Ratio: 1.24

Mark Giordano
2015-16: Giveaways 67, Takeaways 41. Ratio: 1.63
2014-15: Giveaways 51, Takeaways 35. Ratio: 1.46

Dennis Wideman
2015-16: Giveaways 37, Takeaways 14. Ratio: 2.64
2014-15: Giveaways 92, Takeaways 51. Ratio: 1.80

Kris Russell
2015-16: Giveaways 34, Takeaways 19. Ratio: 1.79
2014-15: Giveaways 66, Takeaways 51. Ratio: 1.29

Deryk Engelland
2015-16: Giveaways 21, Takeaways 8. Ratio: 2.62
2014-15: Giveaways 38, Takeaways 20. Ratio: 1.90

Johnny Gaudreau
2015-16: Giveaways 88, Takeaways 40. Ratio: 2.20
2014-15: Giveaways 78, Takeaways 67. Ratio: 1.16

Sean Monahan
2015-16: Giveaways 38, Takeaways 52. Ratio: 0.73
2014-15: Giveaways 52, Takeaways 81. Ratio: 0.64

Here's what I'm taking from this data.

1) Our systems are broken. The league has figured out how to neutralize our breakout, resulting in many, many turnovers.

2) We are far less tenacious on the puck, resulting in a massive downgrade in the amount of takeaways.

3) Those hardest hit by this trend are the youngest and least experienced members...except for Sean Monahan of course who continues to be a stud.

We need to change up our approach this off season. Coaching has been a major downfall for this club this year.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by gunnner

The other side of that theory is that the flames give up a high ratio of quality chances to shots so an expected drop in save % for a goalie who plays here is a fair assumption.

This is true also. It's a combination of weak goaltending + weak defending overall as a team.

That's why the bottom half of the lineup needs to improve significantly this offseason, otherwise any goalie is going to have challenges here.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Just to touch on the idea of Hamilton's lapses, where Brodie was also briefly mentioned, let's look at the turnover ratio. I know these stats aren't kept well consistently, but it's still a starting point to figure out why the Flames struggled this year.

Dougie Hamilton
2015-16: Giveaways 59, Takeaways 15. Ratio: 3.93
2014-15: Giveaways 45, Takeaways 24. Ratio: 1.875

So going from Boston to Calgary more than doubled his turnover ratio.

T.J. Brodie
2015-16: Giveaways 82, Takeaways 45. Ratio: 1.82
2014-15: Giveaways 88, Takeaways 71. Ratio: 1.24

Mark Giordano
2015-16: Giveaways 67, Takeaways 41. Ratio: 1.63
2014-15: Giveaways 51, Takeaways 35. Ratio: 1.46

Dennis Wideman
2015-16: Giveaways 37, Takeaways 14. Ratio: 2.64
2014-15: Giveaways 92, Takeaways 51. Ratio: 1.80

Kris Russell
2015-16: Giveaways 34, Takeaways 19. Ratio: 1.79
2014-15: Giveaways 66, Takeaways 51. Ratio: 1.29

Deryk Engelland
2015-16: Giveaways 21, Takeaways 8. Ratio: 2.62
2014-15: Giveaways 38, Takeaways 20. Ratio: 1.90

Johnny Gaudreau
2015-16: Giveaways 88, Takeaways 40. Ratio: 2.20
2014-15: Giveaways 78, Takeaways 67. Ratio: 1.16

Sean Monahan
2015-16: Giveaways 38, Takeaways 52. Ratio: 0.73
2014-15: Giveaways 52, Takeaways 81. Ratio: 0.64

Here's what I'm taking from this data.

1) Our systems are broken. The league has figured out how to neutralize our breakout, resulting in many, many turnovers.

2) We are far less tenacious on the puck, resulting in a massive downgrade in the amount of takeaways.

3) Those hardest hit by this trend are the youngest and least experienced members...except for Sean Monahan of course who continues to be a stud.

We need to change up our approach this off season. Coaching has been a major downfall for this club this year.

Giveaway and Takeaways are subjective and a different person scoring them could make all the difference in the world. That could be the difference for Hamilton. As for the others, their giveaways are close to the same or even down, so that shouldn't make one think that our system is broken and they have figured out how to neutralize it.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Just to touch on the idea of Hamilton's lapses, where Brodie was also briefly mentioned, let's look at the turnover ratio. I know these stats aren't kept well consistently, but it's still a starting point to figure out why the Flames struggled this year.

Dougie Hamilton
2015-16: Giveaways 59, Takeaways 15. Ratio: 3.93
2014-15: Giveaways 45, Takeaways 24. Ratio: 1.875

So going from Boston to Calgary more than doubled his turnover ratio.

T.J. Brodie
2015-16: Giveaways 82, Takeaways 45. Ratio: 1.82
2014-15: Giveaways 88, Takeaways 71. Ratio: 1.24

Mark Giordano
2015-16: Giveaways 67, Takeaways 41. Ratio: 1.63
2014-15: Giveaways 51, Takeaways 35. Ratio: 1.46

Dennis Wideman
2015-16: Giveaways 37, Takeaways 14. Ratio: 2.64
2014-15: Giveaways 92, Takeaways 51. Ratio: 1.80

Kris Russell
2015-16: Giveaways 34, Takeaways 19. Ratio: 1.79
2014-15: Giveaways 66, Takeaways 51. Ratio: 1.29

Deryk Engelland
2015-16: Giveaways 21, Takeaways 8. Ratio: 2.62
2014-15: Giveaways 38, Takeaways 20. Ratio: 1.90

Johnny Gaudreau
2015-16: Giveaways 88, Takeaways 40. Ratio: 2.20
2014-15: Giveaways 78, Takeaways 67. Ratio: 1.16

Sean Monahan
2015-16: Giveaways 38, Takeaways 52. Ratio: 0.73
2014-15: Giveaways 52, Takeaways 81. Ratio: 0.64

Here's what I'm taking from this data.

1) Our systems are broken. The league has figured out how to neutralize our breakout, resulting in many, many turnovers.

2) We are far less tenacious on the puck, resulting in a massive downgrade in the amount of takeaways.

3) Those hardest hit by this trend are the youngest and least experienced members...except for Sean Monahan of course who continues to be a stud.

We need to change up our approach this off season. Coaching has been a major downfall for this club this year.

This has been the biggest visual change from this year to last. Not exactly a 'systems' change, but attitude. It's easy to point to various unsustainable #'s from last year to explain regression, but I believe that this fact was partially responsible for a lot of those unsustainable numbers.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

Giveaway and Takeaways are subjective and a different person scoring them could make all the difference in the world. That could be the difference for Hamilton. As for the others, their giveaways are close to the same or even down, so that shouldn't make one think that our system is broken and they have figured out how to neutralize it.

Even though I already mentioned that factor, there's no way it would account for more than doubling of his ratio.

For those players who's giveaways are down, there's one explanation: Ice time. Russell and Wideman have played far fewer games for the club, and with much less ice time. They were essentially the top pairing after Gio went down last year.

And yes, the system is definitely broken if you're giving the puck away nearly twice the amount of the time that you take the puck back. You will always be playing on your heels and defending because of it. It is a recipe for failure, so it definitely needs to be addressed.

[Erick Estrada]

When you make as many stretch passes and transition breakout attempts as the Flames do you are going to accumulate your fair share of turnovers especially now the league is more prepared to face it. The fact that pretty well every player is up in turnovers is simply telling of a league that has caught on to what the Flames like to do. The coaching staff doesn't need to entirely abandon what's worked well for them at times but this offseason they need to come up with a wrinkle or work on player discipline so they make the safer play over trying to force things up the ice.

[Vinny01]

Flames should have the highest representation of players on the U24 team at the World Cup as it will be ridiculous if Hamilton is left off the roster.

Hopefully over the next 3 games both Monahan and Bennett find a way to score 3 goals each and Johnny can get 5pts.

Having a 3rd straight year with a rookie scoring 20. The team already has a second straight year when a sophmore scores 30. Having a player have 2 30 goal seasons before he turns 22 would be awesome.

If Matthews somehow falls in the lap of this franchise and a goalie upgrade occurs I feel they will be cup contenders very soon

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

And yes, the system is definitely broken if you're giving the puck away nearly twice the amount of the time that you take the puck back. You will always be playing on your heels and defending because of it. It is a recipe for failure, so it definitely needs to be addressed.

That's not how I read those numbers. If you are giving the puck away twice as often as you are taking it back, that probably means you have the puck most of the time to begin with.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

That's not how I read those numbers. If you are giving the puck away twice as often as you are taking it back, that probably means you have the puck most of the time to begin with.

That's a pretty weird way to look at it. Yes, you have to actually possess the puck in order to give it away, but how long are you holding onto it before giving it up, and how long does it take to get it back...if you ever do end up getting it back?

Turning the puck over twice as many times as you take it away is basically committing double the unforced errors as you force from the other team. That's never good.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

That article also demonstrates how patient fans need to be when it comes to prospects. When you have so many teams with very few players under 23 making contributions, it puts into perspective if guys like Poirier, Arnold, Klimchuck, etc. aren't ripping up the NHL by that age, it doesn't meant they are automatically busts.