09-08-2016, 12:07 PM
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#1
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Rube's 2016 NFL Gambling Odyssey
We're back, folks! After posting a 77-58-4 record ATS last year, I believe that's now three consecutive years with a record above 50% (someone may want to fact check that). I'll be honest and say I haven't followed the NFL as religiously this offseason so that could hurt me. I will also warn that the first three weeks might be a bit of a crapshoot. Week 1 I'll be in Philly to watch the Eagles/Browns game, so I'll miss all of the other morning games and will likely not be sober for the afternoon and evening games (okay so the second part of that isn't really different from previous years). Week 2, I'm going to my buddy's resort on Pender Island for the weekend so it's unlikely I'll catch any of the games unless his WiFi is a lot better than I'm expecting it to be.
I'm still debating doing a podcast this year, but I might do a format where I make picks against my idiot friend who loves football but knows dick all about it, so stay tuned for that if I get around to it.
I made some side future bets as well, which I'll spoiler below:
Now on to the week 1 picks! I don't normally do the Thursday night games but I always make an exception for opening week.
CAR -3
TB ML
TEN ML
SF ML
NYJ +2.5
NO -1.5
JAX +4.5
SEA -10
NYG +1
ARI -6
KC -6.5
BUF +3
DET +3
PIT - 1.5
Last edited by rubecube; 09-12-2016 at 02:06 PM.
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The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to rubecube For This Useful Post:
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09-08-2016, 12:42 PM
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#2
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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We should see how you did in the first three weeks the past few years.
I always think that the first few weeks are more difficult as you try to get a feel for things. But I have nothing to back that up.
I think the best bets this week would be the Jets, Saints, and Seahawks. Even the Titans as a money play is worthwhile. Other than that I can talk myself into leaning either way quite easily.
At this point I'd like to see what this years Jaguars are before I'm comfortable giving a consensus top 4 team like the Packers a pretty lean 4.5 point spread against them even in a road game.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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09-08-2016, 01:26 PM
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#3
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Olympic Guru
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: PL1
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For your futures bets I LOVE the Broncos under
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Back2Back
The Oilers are very close on becoming a powerhouse team.
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09-08-2016, 01:26 PM
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#4
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylvanfan
We should see how you did in the first three weeks the past few years.
I always think that the first few weeks are more difficult as you try to get a feel for things. But I have nothing to back that up.
I think the best bets this week would be the Jets, Saints, and Seahawks. Even the Titans as a money play is worthwhile. Other than that I can talk myself into leaning either way quite easily.
At this point I'd like to see what this years Jaguars are before I'm comfortable giving a consensus top 4 team like the Packers a pretty lean 4.5 point spread against them even in a road game.
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I'm 54-38-3 since 2012 in the first three weeks:
2015 - 18-10-1
2014 - 16-5-1
2013 - 11-12
2012 - 9-11-1
I find the first few weeks the best thing to do is be a bit of a contrarian. People will overreact to the previous year or overhype certain teams during the preseason. I'm not completely sold on the Packers as a top 4 team yet.
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09-08-2016, 01:27 PM
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#5
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CofR
For your futures bets I LOVE the Broncos under
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It's not a great bet only because I think it was at -199, but that's how strongly I feel about the Broncos regressing this year.
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09-09-2016, 10:17 AM
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#6
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: CALGARY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
It's not a great bet only because I think it was at -199, but that's how strongly I feel about the Broncos regressing this year.
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Why? Quite possibly a better QB situation, Defense remains for the most part intact and they have the championship experience...
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09-11-2016, 04:27 PM
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#7
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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This is why I sit out week one...
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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09-12-2016, 02:00 PM
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#8
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylvanfan
This is why I sit out week one...
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It kind of went how I expected it to go. I can still win the week if the Niners spoil the Rams homecoming tonight.
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09-12-2016, 02:05 PM
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#9
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Nevermind, I'm 5-6 right now. I also added PIT -1.5 for tonight.
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09-12-2016, 03:27 PM
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#10
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Franchise Player
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I hit a 5 team parlay on sunday and won money in the Sunday Draft Kings. So far so good.
An average game for Big Ben and Brown and I will be in the money on my other draft kings.
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09-12-2016, 11:28 PM
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#11
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weitz
I hit a 5 team parlay on sunday and won money in the Sunday Draft Kings. So far so good.
An average game for Big Ben and Brown and I will be in the money on my other draft kings.
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Nice work. I'll probably avoid DFS this year.
I'll take 7-6 in week 1, especially considering that I came through on the games I felt strongest about (Jags, Lions, Bucs, and Niners).
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09-15-2016, 01:14 PM
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#12
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Broke my rule for tonight. Bills +1.
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The Following User Says Thank You to rubecube For This Useful Post:
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09-15-2016, 03:20 PM
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#13
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Fernando Valley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
Broke my rule for tonight. Bills +1.
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I think the Bills look more like an 0-2 team than the Jets who should have beat a good Bengals team last week.
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09-15-2016, 03:56 PM
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#14
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
I think the Bills look more like an 0-2 team than the Jets who should have beat a good Bengals team last week.
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Bills won both meetings last year and neither team really made any memorable moves this offseason, so I'm giving the Bills the edge at home.
Last edited by rubecube; 09-15-2016 at 04:16 PM.
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09-16-2016, 10:48 AM
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#15
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Good call, EE, the Bills are terrible. 7-6 last week and 0-1 to start this week.
BUF ML (L)
DET -6
TB +6.5
PHI +3
CIN +3
NO +5
SEA -6.5
JAX +3
GB -2.5
HOU -2.5
WSH -3
DEN -6
OAK -4.5
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09-16-2016, 01:02 PM
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#16
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Fernando Valley
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Not sure I would take the Raiders at -4.5. It's going to be a FG game IMO as the Raiders defense hasn't gelled yet and I can see some big plays by the Falcons passing game.
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09-16-2016, 01:10 PM
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#17
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
Not sure I would take the Raiders at -4.5. It's going to be a FG game IMO as the Raiders defense hasn't gelled yet and I can see some big plays by the Falcons passing game.
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It's probably the pick I'm least confident in to be honest. That said, Atlanta's offensive line isn't very good, so I could see Mack having a big day.
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09-16-2016, 01:16 PM
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#18
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Fernando Valley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
It's probably the pick I'm least confident in to be honest. That said, Atlanta's offensive line isn't very good, so I could see Mack having a big day.
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Don't change your pick on my account as if the Raiders cover I'll feel bad (happy the Raiders won on a personal level though). I'm actually taking the Colts as I'm not sold on Siemian and thought the Broncos only won last week because of extremely poor officiating. I expect the officials will be watching them closely this week and Luck has never had issues with that Broncos defense.
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09-16-2016, 02:51 PM
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#19
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
Nice work. I'll probably avoid DFS this year.
I'll take 7-6 in week 1, especially considering that I came through on the games I felt strongest about (Jags, Lions, Bucs, and Niners).
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Have thoughts on why?
I like DFS because I never win or lose big. Haha. I think I took home $40 after last NFL season.
I went 10 for 16 in my work pick 'em pool, good for 13th place.. Usually thats a winning score!
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09-16-2016, 03:04 PM
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#20
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Franchise Player
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10-16 usually wins your pickem ! Even against the spread that isn't a winning score !
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