Armchair GM Sunday: Defensemen

[thymebalm]

I love taking a lazy Sunday to browse the stats and changes and get nuanced about the state of the Calgary Flames organization. I think we've all been pretty aware of the goaltending situation, but I took some time out to look at how the defensive core has changed since Treliving took over almost two years ago.

I was a little shocked to see how little has changed. Finding solid NHL defensemen, whether through drafting and development, trade, or via free agency is no easy task.

In 2013-14 our top six was essentially:

Mark Giordano - TJ Brodie
Kris Russell - Dennis Wideman
Chris Butler - Ladislav Smid

7th man: Shane O'Brien
Top NHL-ready prospects: Tyler Wotherspoon / Chad Billins

Today:

Mark Giordano - TJ Brodie
Kris Russell - Dennis Wideman
Dougie Hamilton* - Deryk Engelland

7th man: Ladislav Smid
Top NHL-ready prospects: Jakub Nakladal / Tyler Wotherspoon / Brett Kulak

-

I don't have time right now to finish all the details, but I'd like to crack open the discussion anyway. What do you guys think of the movement on the backend over two seasons? Wideman, Smid and Engelland all have years remaining on their contract, so I suspect it won't be until Treliving's 4th season as GM that we see a major turn over in our bottom half pairings.

Do you think "blue-chip" defensive prospects Rasmus Andersson and Oliver Kylington will be able to make their way onto the Flames roster by the time those vacancies appear in October 2017? We know for sure that the top 3 defenders will be Brodie, Giordano, & Hamilton, but will the Flames be able to add some real mobility and scoring from the bottom half?

Does opening day roster 2017-2018 look like this?

Giordano - Brodie
Hamilton - Kylington
Andersson - Wotherspoon

or does B.T. make another big splash in the UFA/Trade market? Are we any better off with essentially playing three rookies in our line up than we are with three low ceiling vets (Russell, Smid, Engelland) like this season?

What do you guys make of what the D will look like at the end of Treliving's "5 year plan" which we current 40% of the way through?

[dammage79]

Both Andersson and Kylington should be good to go for 2017 IMO. The Flames are going to be in line for some happy problems in a couple of years. Don't forget Hickey either, there's a small chance he may sign this off season.

[Matty81]

The Flames are in a great spot with Brodie-Gio-Hamilton.

3 of their top 4 are set for a long time.

Wideman, Russell, Smid, Engelland will all be gone by the end of next year and I think filling the bottom two with a pairing like Wotherspoon and Nakladal (or Kulak, or another inexpensive depth dman from waivers or the cheap end of the UFA market) would be cheap, and more than adequate for the amount of minutes they would play until some of the prospects are ready to ease into those spots.

As long as they address the one outstanding issue to shelter that bottom pairing, a 3/4 to play with Hamilton, probably has to be a left shot if you don't want to break up Gio and Brodie (and why would you).

For me, Kylington, Anderson, Kulak and Hickey all look great but I don't see them as top 4 ready within 24 months.

I think they should go after a LHD with some upside who looks like they've conquered the AHL but are blocked. Somebody like Esa Lindell would be perfect. Ease them in next year with Wideman still around and groom them for that top 4 in 2017/18 when Smid, Engelland and Wideman are gone.

Dallas would probably part for a dman in a rental deal and I think they are a good fit for the Flames with all their prospects who are doing well in the AHL.

[Monahan For Mayor]

I think Nak takes a spot this year. And keeps it for the next year at least.

[spuzzum]

I love Sunday afternoon being able to golf in the winter. Gotta love the Lower Mainland even if it is Canuckland.

[PeteMoss]

At some point you'd think we'd learn not to pencil prospects who are miles away from the NHL into the line-up. I get its no fun, but guys like Kulak/Wotherspoon are much more likely to be career AHLers or in Europe than in the NHL. Andersson and Kylington look ok right now (although neither is blowing down the doors) and not blue chip or sure fire prospects by any stretch. They've still got a lot of development to go.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

At some point you'd think we'd learn not to pencil prospects who are miles away from the NHL into the line-up. I get its no fun, but guys like Kulak/Wotherspoon are much more likely to be career AHLers or in Europe than in the NHL. Andersson and Kylington look ok right now (although neither is blowing down the doors) and not blue chip or sure fire prospects by any stretch. They've still got a lot of development to go.

I don't think you pencil in prospects because it's fun, it's simply that you only have the team's depth chart to work with. The goal in drafting these players is obviously to try to get them into the NHL, so there's no harm in trying to figure out where they might land after their development phase ends. Keep in mind too, we are talking about 2 seasons down the line.

In terms of calling Kylington and Andersson 'blue-chip', it depends on how you are ranking them. Both of these guys were well researched leading up to their draft, and had some pretty good defenders as their comparables. McKenzie compared Andersson to Dennis Wideman, and Kylington was said to be on the same trajectory as Erik Karlsson(!) prior to being drafted.

What they do with their development is anyone's guess, but in terms of prospects, they are the closest to blue chip that the Flames have seen since 4th round selection TJ Brodie.

With that said, as I was alluding to in the OP, I'm not convinced that the Flames can rely on 3 rookies to develop and become every day NHLers in such a short period of time, especially considering we've seen zero movement from prospects to players in the last two seasons.

I do think however that it's too harsh to write off Wotherspoon/Kulak today.

Wotherspoon is amassing lots of pro experience, and has been serviceable already in the number 6 slot for the Flames in limited action. I find it more likely that he progresses slightly than regresses in the next two seasons.

For comparisons sake, he looks like he could fill Smid's spot today:

Career w/ Flames:
Smid - 109GP - 1G - 6A - 7Pts - -23, 81PIM
Wotherspoon - 16GP - 0G - 4Pts - -4 4PIM

[PeteMoss]

I'm not writing them off, just playing the probabilities.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I'm not writing them off, just playing the probabilities.

Based on the last ten years of Flames hockey, it's very likely that the opening roster will look like...

Giordano - Brodie
Hamilton - UFA/Russell re-up
UFA/Wideman re-up - UFA/Engelland re-up
xUFA

I don't know who this Ufa guy is, but he's going to have a lot of ice time to cover on that roster.

Any good Ufas available to take a run at this July? edit: or Next July for that matter?

Defenders so rarely become available to the open market as it is.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I'm not writing them off, just playing the probabilities.

Probabilities don't mean much. Sometimes the probabilities are determined by who falls to you, and in Andersson/Kylington's case these guys definitely fell to us. Sometimes you get on a roll at one position (like the Flyers are on, with Gostisbehere, Sanheim, Provorov, and an undrafted signing of a certain guy who was at Flames dev camp this year and is now considered a first rounder in a 2015 re-draft)

Just think, between 2008-2012, the Ducks drafted:

Gardiner (Top Three NHL D)
Fowler (Top Pair NHL D)
Lindholm (Top Pair NHL D)
Vatanen (Top 5 NHL D)
Manson (Top 6 NHL D)
Shea Theodore (Projects to be a top pairing or top 4 D)

in a span of five drafts.

And they're one of the best teams in our division. Their worst defenseman is probably the one guy they traded for, Bieksa.

[hockey.modern]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

Based on the last ten years of Flames hockey, it's very likely that the opening roster will look like...

Giordano - Brodie
Hamilton - UFA/Russell re-up
UFA/Wideman re-up - UFA/Engelland re-up
xUFA

I don't know who this Ufa guy is, but he's going to have a lot of ice time to cover on that roster.

Any good Ufas available to take a run at this July? edit: or Next July for that matter?

Defenders so rarely become available to the open market as it is.

Defense this year for UFA Free Agency 2016 doesn't look to be great. However, RFA's are looking pretty good for defense. Say we don't resign Russell and choose not to sign everyone, this is what the roster looks like.

Giordano-Brodie
Engelland-Hamilton
Smid-Wideman

2017 July is when a lot of our bad contracts are gone from the team including three players from the lineup above. (Mason Raymond & Brandon Bollig as well)

Giordano-Brodie
X-Hamilton
X-X

That year, $15,116,666 comes off the book and the only key players to sign are Sam Bennett & Micheal Ferland and Jon Gillies.

Most notable UFA's 2017 July for defence:

Hedman, Victor
Shattenkirk, Kevin
Burns, Brent

It would be great if this is the outcome.

Brodie-Hamilton
Giordano-UFA
Kylington/Culkin/Kulak/Wotherspoon-Andersson/Morrison

[Finger Cookin]

Not so bold prediction: all of Hedman, Shattenkirk, and Burns will be signed prior to July 2017.

[Strange Brew]

Yeah it's pretty ballsy to pencil in two 2nd round picks from the 2015 draft into the 2017 opening day roster. We have two 1st round picks from the 2013 draft that still aren't near being NHLers.

I hope by 2018 we have two current d-men prospects playing on the NHL roster and one in the top 4. That would be good.

[hockey.modern]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Not so bold prediction: all of Hedman, Shattenkirk, and Burns will be signed prior to July 2017.

Yeah, I doubt those players will hit Free Agency, however, St.Louis and Tampa Bay have some key players to sign that year and money will be tight.

St.Louis:
- Alexander Steen
- Patrik Berglund
- Robert Bortuzzo
- Colton Parayko
- Brian Elliott
- Jake Allen

Tampa Bay:
- Tyler Johnson
- Ondrej Palat
- Andrei Vasilevskiy
- Ben Bishop
- Jonathan Drouin (Highly doubt he'll be in Tampa by then)

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Kulak and Wotherspoon are still very much in the conversation and are likely to make the Flames before the much younger Andersson and Kylington. I wouldn't be pencilling in Andersson and Kylington in the next two years. Defensemen take longer to develop and it's better that we expect they take at least 1-2 years in the minors. They may surprise and step in earlier but it would be premature to expect that IMO. I suppose Kylington maybe should be expected to step in halfway through 17-18 since he's turned pro already. Depends how his progression goes.

Wotherspoon, Kulak, Culkin and Nakladal should be competing for spots this fall. I'd expect one or two of our veteran defensemen to be gone by then. Andersson and Kylington will be wildcards this fall, but I'd be shocked if they made the team. If we draft Chychrun I'd expect him to have a great chance of making the team.

We need one more top 4 guy to be developed or drafted or traded for. Long term defense looks really solid in the organization.

[JiriHrdina]

I'm not sure when he's expected to turn pro...but I think Hickey has the best chance of being a second pairing guy long term

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I'm not sure when he's expected to turn pro...but I think Hickey has the best chance of being a second pairing guy long term

Hickey was fast rising on the radar after last season but has slowed down this year. Had he kept climbing from last year I could have seen him leave college a year early, but there are no signs of that happening now.

I suspect he has two more seasons of college hockey before he signs a pro contract. Then he's going to need some seasoning at the pro level.

Kylington and Andersson have the bonus of having played professional in Europe as teenagers, and I think that can go a long way developmentally.

He does have the right combo of size and IQ should he pan out over the next three seasons though I think.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Probabilities don't mean much. Sometimes the probabilities are determined by who falls to you, and in Andersson/Kylington's case these guys definitely fell to us. Sometimes you get on a roll at one position (like the Flyers are on, with Gostisbehere, Sanheim, Provorov, and an undrafted signing of a certain guy who was at Flames dev camp this year and is now considered a first rounder in a 2015 re-draft)

Just think, between 2008-2012, the Ducks drafted:

Gardiner (Top Three NHL D)
Fowler (Top Pair NHL D)
Lindholm (Top Pair NHL D)
Vatanen (Top 5 NHL D)
Manson (Top 6 NHL D)
Shea Theodore (Projects to be a top pairing or top 4 D)

in a span of five drafts.

And they're one of the best teams in our division. Their worst defenseman is probably the one guy they traded for, Bieksa.

Gardiner (Top Three NHL D) #17 overall 2008
Fowler (Top Pair NHL D) #12 overall 2010
Lindholm (Top Pair NHL D) #6 overall 2012
Vatanen (Top 5 NHL D) #106 overall 2009
Manson (Top 6 NHL D) # 160 overall 2011
Shea Theodore (Projects to be a top pairing or top 4 D) #26 overall 2013

4 1st round draft picks and 2 drafted the Flames way of building their D.

The 1st round picks did not fall to the Ducks.


Chances are that Jacob Larsson who fell to the Ducks at #27 in 2015 overall will be a NHL defenseman before Andersson/Kylington who fell a lot more.

[Split98]

One guy in not hearing enough of in this thread is Nakladal.

It has been a limited showing, for sure. But he is a mature player, so I think we're pretty much seeing his floor. From what I've seen from him so far, I'm pretty happy to have him in a 5/6 role.

3 question marks, and a good handful of prospects with reasonable optimism of NHL upside. I hope BT is done spending money on D personally. Unless a clear top 4 falls to us for a song.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Split98

One guy in not hearing enough of in this thread is Nakladal.

It has been a limited showing, for sure. But he is a mature player, so I think we're pretty much seeing his floor. From what I've seen from him so far, I'm pretty happy to have him in a 5/6 role.

3 question marks, and a good handful of prospects with reasonable optimism of NHL upside. I hope BT is done spending money on D personally. Unless a clear top 4 falls to us for a song.

This is with us not making any big moves on our back end.

Yeah with Russell probably gone, I'd like Nakladal as at least our 7th defenceman. He's mobile, has good size and is playing with confidence. I'd put him ahead of Smid on our depth chart.

Wotherspoon needs to come to camp ready to take a spot. I like his size and if he does, Smid can go to Stockton. Smid's okay but he's become an injury problem which may have affected his play.

Kulak I'm not sure of but he's more ready than any of other of our prospects and could grab a spot.

Kylington's doing good. For an 18 year old defenceman to play regularly in the A is great. I'm glad he's been able to stay with one team and get settled. Andersson and Hickey show promise as well, so I think we're in good shape for our future on defence. This doesn't mean I'd bypass Chychrun if he falls to us.