Thoughts on the Pacific

[CaptainCrunch]

Since we're just past the half way point of the season, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the Pacific Division and discuss the prospects of the teams within it

1) LA Kings 27-12-3 last 10 7-2-1

Looks like the people that said that last years playoff miss was a perfect storm of anomalies were right. Right now, the race for first in the division is pretty much over, the Kings are playing at an elite level in a non elite division and as the season turns to more Pacific Division matchups that gap should widen. The Kings aren't going to blow teams out of the water, but they're going to smother them to death with a black and silver pillow. (Predicted finish 1st)

2) Arizona 22-16-5 last 10 6-1-3

I still find it amazing that this team is in second place in the division with a negative goals differential. They score a lot of goals, but a bottom feeder in terms of defensive stats. A lot of people think that they're the Flames of last year, and they've replicated that formula, they're a hard working fast team with un sustainable Domingue has come in and given the Yotes amazing goaltending, and they're banking on a lot of their younger players. I still don't think that they're going to be in the top 3 in the division at the end of the year, Prediction (4th in the division, Wildcard playoff team)

3) San Jose 22-18-2 last 10 6-3-1

This is a team in flux, they have some excellent young talent, but they're still a older team at heart. Burns really drives this bus, and lately they've been getting some stellar goaltending from Jones. They can't seem to win at home, and they seem to have a real unbalance to their offense (3rdth in the division )

4) Vancouver 17-17-10 last 10 5-3-2

The good news for Vancouver is that they're not outright losing as many games as they should as they lead the team in overtime losses. This is a team that's short on talent, their youth isn't exactly stepping up fast and they have some goaltending issues. They smoke and mirrored for a lot of the first half, and they've got a decent points total, but the question is if they can survive the monster road trip that they on. They don't do anything particularly well offensively of defensively and seem to be a team without an identity (6th in the division)

5) Anaheim 18-17-7 last 10 6-2-2

They've become the 90's devils of this generation, their coaching staff realized that they just aren't going to score a lot of goals and have adopted the trap heavily and are smothering teams now. For some reason there's little to no offensive chemistry on this team, and they're scoring pretty much by committee as nobody but Perry is really leading the way. This is a team that is suddenly playing a really responsible team game, and they're too talented not to break out sometime soon (2rd in the division)

6) Calgary 20-20-2 last 10 5-5-0

That start literally killed this team when nothing was working. They've been very good since then, especially with the return of Brodie, but they're not getting enough of the single points in their losses compared to other teams. I think that this is still a team that's trying to find itself night after night and your seeing a high level of inconsistency. The good news is its really the youthful core that we're seeing carrying the mail as some of the veterans have fallen back from their peaks over last year. The Flames have made positive slides in reducing their goals differential thanks to improved goaltending and team defense. The biggest positive is that we're seeing a more complete team then the ones above them in terms of where the offensive is coming from with the Flames having one of the most explosive bluelines in hockey. The bad news, I go back to the first month or so of the season and the difficulty in passing multiple teams above them (Prediction 5th in the division out of playoffs)

7) Edmonton 17-23-5 last 10 22-5-3

Once again, Edmonton is horrible, they can point to improvements that will happen when Klefbom and McDavid return probably after the all-star break, but the Oilers weren't great with those two in the lineup, and by that point it will be far to late for anything but a feel good surge to sell the franchise for their next year in their new building. A deplorable blueline kills any offensive skill that this team has, but even with that they should be scoring more, but I don't think the forwards are showing any consistant work ethic. Draisatl after a hot start has fallen back to earth, Hall has vanished again and the rest of their forwards, can't or don't want to pick up the mantle. The only thing that's really saving the Oilers from being even worse is some good goaltending work from Talbot. (7th in the Pacific last in the West)

Summary preditions

1) LA
2) Anaheim
3) San Jose
4) Arizona (Wildcard)
5) Calgary DNQ
6) Vancouver DNQ
7) Edmonton DNQ

[Hackey]

Looks pretty good but not sure Arizona ends up the WC. I think it will be two teams from Central. Pacific I want to say LA and Anaheim make it and the third spot is battle between SJ, Arizona and Flames.

[Erick Estrada]

The start hurt the Flames but in the end what's going to kill them is their poor record in the Division. You simply can't afford to lose the majority of the games head to head against the teams between you and the playoffs and still expect to make it.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

It was no Band of Brothers but I didn't hate it.

Oh...Ooops you mean the division. Oh yeah, it isn't very good either.

[Enoch Root]

one of my least favourite oceans

[djsFlames]

LA
San Jose
Arizona
Flames (pass Preds/Jets for the WC)
Anaheim
Vancouver
Edmonton

[wingmaker]

If the Flames miss, you don't have to look to the start. Fact is, they were in a playoff spot after that winning streak. All they had to do was outplay the teams around them from that point on and they have not even come close. Playing .500 hockey does not cut it. Of course the start was bad, but so was the rest of the division. That's what's frustrating. The Flames got a mulligan for their start and they have not taken advantage.

That said, it's not over yet, but they have put themselves back in a situation where they need a run of wins to get back in.

[Bingo]

Also interesting to see the Flames return to their shooting percentage ways. Last year that was the stat that all the "experts" pointed to in unsustainability. You can't out perform others in shooting percentage long term.

This season both the save percentage and shooting percentage were awful for the first 6 weeks, then both improved.

Flames are now top 10 in the league at 9.3%.

[tvp2003]

The Pacific will be decided by four players:

Louis Domingue -- if he keeps playing like he's been playing the Coyotes get in

Martin Jones -- see above

Ryan Getzlaf -- if he doesn't pull it together in the second half the Ducks are out (trap notwithstanding)

Sam Bennett -- the biggest wildcard in the division -- if he can be an offensive catalyst it might give the Flames the spark they need to make it in



Kings will win the division. Vancouver and Edmonton can just go away.

[Otto-matic]

The division is so wild, I wouldn't be able to safely call any spots being safe outside of LA.

1) LA
2) San Jose
3) Calgary
4) Arizona DNQ
5) Anaheim DNQ
6) Vancouver DNQ
7) Edmonton DNQ

I see this as a reloading year for the Ducks, they'll be a powerhouse again next season.

[Jbo]

Think we sneak this year. Agree with most of the points though

[Regulator75]

Best Ocean ever.

[thefoss1957]

My thoughts on the Pacific (and, of course, I have no horse in this race)...

Saint Joe and Vancouver...aging rosters and coaches that are not good enough

Anaheim...Boudreau is too inflexible for post season adjustments...and some of their vets are underperforming

Kings...Decent roster...decent coach (though with a short shelf life)...Too dependent on goaltending

Coyotes...smoke and mirrors...goaltender is also key

Flames...Good young roster...Hartley is average, at best...my question is if they can get enough in net to make a run. And if the tighter checking of stretch/Playoffs can be overcome.

Oilers...Loser franchise mentality...loser ownership...loser players...decent coach

[heep223]

Originally Posted by thefoss1957

Flames...Good young roster...Hartley is average, at best...my question is if they can get enough in net to make a run. And if the tighter checking of stretch/Playoffs can be overcome.

Interesting. From the outside looking in, what makes you say this? He just won coach of the year.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

It was no Band of Brothers but I didn't hate it.

I appreciated it more the second, third viewings. Nowadays I think I look on it more favorably than BoB.

[thefoss1957]

Heep...Hartley had a pretty good run in Colorado, where he had some elite talent. He had some building years in Atlanta, but only one playoff season. For you guys, two seasons to build, and last year's playoffs, he seems a good motivator, but, I question his abilities with x's and o's to give his guys an edge.

[Trailer Fire]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

7) Edmonton 17-23-5 last 10 22-5-3

22 wins in your last 10 is pretty good, no matter how =NG you really are.

[blender]

Vancouver with the win tonight. Flames need to string a few together to stay in it.

[simonsays]

Originally Posted by thefoss1957

Heep...Hartley had a pretty good run in Colorado, where he had some elite talent. He had some building years in Atlanta, but only one playoff season. For you guys, two seasons to build, and last year's playoffs, he seems a good motivator, but, I question his abilities with x's and o's to give his guys an edge.

I kind of agree. I think he's a great coach for this team right now, giving young guys lots of leash, etc. but I don't think he's the guy to lead this team into contender status. I love the Flames breakouts when they work, but it's so easy to coach against the stretch play in the playoffs. The way Anaheim played us last year in the playoffs it felt like we were constantly punting on the second down for some reason.

Originally Posted by thefoss1957

Kings...Decent roster...decent coach (though with a short shelf life)...Too dependent on goaltending

Can't disagree with you more about their coach. I know that as a Flames fan I'm biased and all, but in the last 6 seasons that Sutter was a head coach he's won the Stanley Cup 2 times and reached the finals 3 times. In fact my top 5 head coaches in any order would be Sutter, Quenneville, Babcock, Vigneault, and Trotz. These guys all manage to elevate their stars while keeping the rest of the team involved and competitive.

As for the Division, it's so hard to say. With every night being a crapshoot for so many pacific teams you would have to think that this is a good thing for the young teams. It's like everyone in the division hit the first hurdle they saw and fell over. The Flames and Oilers are still playing meaningful games in the middle of January and with the start that both teams had neither deserve to be (well the Oil are probably out now). The Coyotes came back from their early stumbles and are playing like a real hockey team.

So the losers in this are probably the Sharks, Ducks and 'Nucks. Older teams who for whichever reason haven't done anything but be below average.

I thought Anaheim would be the WCF champ before the season began. I still think they can make the playoffs and even make some noise there, but they aren't playing like the team to beat, just like a team to beat.

I'm not too surprised that Vancouver is hanging around as the Sedins still look like superstars most nights. They also have a pretty decent top pairing on defence. And almost nothing else. But this wild wild pacific has to kill them. They are just below good enough for the playoffs and have almost zero redeemable assets at the trade deadline (unless someone looses their marbles).

San Jose is in flux. We knew they would be. They knew they would be. And this season have to be particularly flummoxing because they can't even point to the standings the next time they ask Joe or Patty to gtfo.

So to me the young teams win this. Well, LA wins this. But CGY, ARI and EDM probably benefit the most for being in this years weakest division. Because continuing to play meaningful games and competing as a team for the win is one of the best ways to foster good play in younger players.

[Jbo]

Originally Posted by blender

Vancouver with the win tonight. Flames need to string a few together to stay in it.

True...I do feel okay that we have 3 games in hand. Hopefully make those games count.