There are some pretty cool stats and methodology behind the tool, but the part I liked best was the interactive chart at the bottom of the page showing draft probability (chance player is available at x pick). Here is a summary of his methodology:
Quote:
This is not simply just an average of projections but instead a model based on Bayesian inference. Bayesian models begin with a 'prior' probability distribution, used as a reasonable first guess. Then that guess is refined as we add new information. It works the same way your brain does (hopefully). As more information is added, your prior belief is either confirmed or revised to some degree. The degree to which it is refined is a function of how reliable the new information is. This draft projection model works the same way.
For a prior estimate of when each prospect might be taken, I created a probability distribution centred around a consensus of best-player rankings. I created my own consensus rankings of the past four drafts using ISS Hockey, McKeens and The Hockey News. The key at this stage is that this prior distribution is only as confident as these types of projections have been in the past. The distribution is based on the errors of these rankings over the past four years. They don't take into account team needs (which team's should never consider but whether they do or not is another discussion) or when certain teams have picks. These consensus rankings give us a reasonable first guess as to where a certain player is likely to get picked.
For instance, a guy like Provorov, whom I assume most of us would love to pick, only has about a 0.5% chance of being available at 15th overall, whereas there's almost a 72% chance a guy like Svechnikov is available at 15.
If I sort the list to the Flames and look at players whom fall in the 25% to 75% chance of availability range, I get the following 7 players:
Mikko Rantanen - 31%
Kyle Connor - 38%
Timo Meier - 46%
Nick Merkley - 54%
Travis Konecny - 63%
Colin White - 66%
Evgeni Svechnikov - 72%
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These 2 are the ones I seem to hear brought up most often.
As someone who hasn't followed this year's prospects, what type of players are they?
Rantanen is this years Nichushkin but Finnish. Maybe has better hands. Same skating and size. RW LH shot. 6'4 ish and over 200lbs already. Was THE force on Finlands WJC team this past tournament.
Here:
Not too up on Meier but from all I've read he seems like a PWF LH RW/C.
Last edited by dammage79; 06-10-2015 at 01:59 PM.
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Of all the potential RWs who could be available at 15, here's my order of preference:
Barzal - mega long shot to drop to 15
Rantanen - long shot, but not outside the realms of possibility
Svechnikov - decent chance of still being on the board
Boeser - bit of a reach at 15, but I think he has top line upside
Meier - unlikely to be there at 15 anyway, but I've gone off Mooseheads & Swiss people (not in a racist way)
Merkley - reminds me of TJ Oshie in a way. Calgary boy.
Konecky - all heart and skill but will his body hold up?
White - great 2-way forward but I hear he lacks top line upside
Sprong - no.
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Of all the potential RWs who could be available at 15, here's my order of preference:
Barzal - mega long shot to drop to 15
Rantanen - long shot, but not outside the realms of possibility
Svechnikov - decent chance of still being on the board
Boeser - bit of a reach at 15, but I think he has top line upside
Meier - unlikely to be there at 15 anyway, but I've gone off Mooseheads & Swiss people (not in a racist way)
Merkley - reminds me of TJ Oshie in a way. Calgary boy.
Konecky - all heart and skill but will his body hold up?
White - great 2-way forward but I hear he lacks top line upside
Sprong - no.
Good list. As for defensemen, it's most likely that Hanifin, Provorov, and Werenski will be taken. The rest would be considered reaches, except maybe Jakub Zboril.
Assuming the Flames don't trade down or up, it's realistic to expect them to draft one of
Svechnikov - Great combination of strength, size, and skill
Merkley - Calgary boy with high compete and skill
Konecny - Top-notch skill and compete, but a bit small
White - As you said, great 2-way forward but lacks top-line potential
Zboril - Solid all-around defenseman but lacks top-2 potential
Out of this list, I hope it's Svechnikov, Konecny, and Merkley (in that order)
Of all the potential RWs who could be available at 15, here's my order of preference:
Barzal - mega long shot to drop to 15
Rantanen - long shot, but not outside the realms of possibility
Svechnikov - decent chance of still being on the board
Boeser - bit of a reach at 15, but I think he has top line upside
Meier - unlikely to be there at 15 anyway, but I've gone off Mooseheads & Swiss people (not in a racist way)
Merkley - reminds me of TJ Oshie in a way. Calgary boy.
Konecky - all heart and skill but will his body hold up?
White - great 2-way forward but I hear he lacks top line upside
Sprong - no.
Not saying we need to target a RW, but I do think these could be the best available at that spot. I am tempted to add the "other" Russian, Guryanov, as I have a feeling he gets picked in the top half of the draft. That might also mean someone else is available, like a Zacha or Kyle Connor.
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What's the deal with Colin White anyhow? You never hear anything about him and his stats don't look great, but he is always ranked in the mid-1st round area.
Is he one of those "low ceiling, but high probability of making it" kind of prospects? Like an Eric Nystrom?
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Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 06-10-2015 at 05:38 PM.
Not saying we need to target a RW, but I do think these could be the best available at that spot. I am tempted to add the "other" Russian, Guryanov, as I have a feeling he gets picked in the top half of the draft. That might also mean someone else is available, like a Zacha or Kyle Connor.
Really depends with Guryanov. Would be an amazing pick if the Flames were keen to sit on him for the 4 years or so until he's ready to come over to NA. I'm thinking he's a Kuznetsov type of pick. Worth it in the long run but if you want to see the fruits of your drafting labor earlier, you're going to have to take someone else.
I think I read a sureloss post that the KHL and NHL are finally finalizing a transfer agreement so Guys like Gavrikov and Gurynov might be the last of the Russian factor draft stock droppers.
I can't find interviews with Guryanov anywhere so who knows what his intentions are moving forward. He did go to the combine I believe so thats a positive I think.
EDIT: Guryanov is signed for 2 more years with his KHL team so he could make the jump over along side fellow compatriot Rushan Rafikov.
Agree with Flamezilla a bit though, Svechnikov doesn't carry the KHL baggage making him the safer pick.
Not saying we need to target a RW, but I do think these could be the best available at that spot. I am tempted to add the "other" Russian, Guryanov, as I have a feeling he gets picked in the top half of the draft. That might also mean someone else is available, like a Zacha or Kyle Connor.
Guryanov has the Russian Factor that Svechnikov doesn't have. I would go with Svechnikov 10 times out of 10 because he's already in NA and looks like a top line sniper.
Connor seems unlikely to drop, as his stock just keeps rising. Zacha, I'm not so sure about. Need to look into him a but more. If those two are on the list then Crouse has to be mentioned as well. With all these guys on the rise it's possible that he drops into our sights.
Dreaming of the silky smooth Giroux-esque Barzal. Rantanen is a beast and looks NHL-ready to me. After that it's Svechnikov or Boeser for me. I'm buying the Button love for Brock, so if Barzal, Rantanen & Svechnikov are all taken I think Boeser's a great fit for the Flames. An Okposo-type player is exactly what this team needs to play with Monahan and Gaudreau.
Draft Probability Tool
