"Limits to growth" was right?

[White Out 403]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...P=share_btn_fb

he 1972 book Limits to Growth, which predicted our civilisation would probably collapse some time this century, has been criticised as doomsday fantasy since it was published. Back in 2002, self-styled environmental expert Bjorn Lomborg consigned it to the “dustbin of history”.

It doesn’t belong there. Research from the University of Melbourne has found the book’s forecasts are accurate, 40 years on. If we continue to track in line with the book’s scenario, expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon.

Limits to Growth was commissioned by a think tank called the Club of Rome. Researchers working out of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, including husband-and-wife team Donella and Dennis Meadows, built a computer model to track the world’s economy and environment. Called World3, this computer model was cutting edge.

saw this on my FB feed and think its worth a chat. I dont feel one way or another about it just yet.

[Street Pharmacist]

They postulated that "business as usual" would continue until 2020, which it has as this article shows. That's proof the doomsday ahead is coming? Seems like a pretty big stretch

[burn_this_city]

Continuous growth requires a constantly growing energy supply. The biggest limit to economic expansion will be energy in the future. When we transition away from fossil fuel we will struggle to find cheap alternatives to replace the ridiculous quantities of oil, coal, and natural gas we consume daily.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

They postulated that "business as usual" would continue until 2020, which it has as this article shows. That's proof the doomsday ahead is coming? Seems like a pretty big stretch

Business as usual means no changes to policies.

The reason that people are taking a second look it seems is the models they used to predict things have been very accurate over the last 40 years

[kevman]

Society is a ponzi scheme. Everything we do, and have done, is at the expense of a future generation. On a world scale the lives we live are unsustainable. One day the gig will be up. C'est la vie!

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Continuous growth requires a constantly growing energy supply. The biggest limit to economic expansion will be energy in the future. When we transition away from fossil fuel we will struggle to find cheap alternatives to replace the ridiculous quantities of oil, coal, and natural gas we consume daily.

Solar is starting to get competitive... and it's essentially a limitless supply of power. We just have to deploy it.

SolarCity seems to be doing good work in the US. I hope we get a Canadian counterpart soon.

SolarCity, one of Elon Musk's companies, is (similar to Tesla) building a gigafactory. Theirs will obviously be for the production of solar panels, and will be located in South Bufffalo. It will be the largest producer of solar panels in the western hemisphere.

More info.

Moving past that, though... I think "doomsday" scenarios are a little ridiculous. Our society is advancing technologically at an insanely high rate... it's likely that before we get ourselves into any real serious trouble, we'll be to the point where we can solve our major environmental issues.

Population growth levels off, and then usually goes negative, with modernization... so that is something we should be actively pursuing. I think global internet efforts will help that.

Japan has demonstrated indoor farming that is vastly more efficient in terms of water, time, and space. So if pressed we should be able to expand our food supply significantly.

I honestly have difficulty seeing a realistic scenario in which society worldwide would just collapse, other than a global war or gigantic natural disaster (super volcano or asteroid/comet impact).

Basically... if we make it through the next 100 years (and I have yet to see a convincing reason why we won't), I think we'll be fine.

[polak]

Absolutely nothing about technological advancement in any of that?

Sooo this model accurately predicted that we will expand and our consumption will increase? Wow what a great model.

[Coach]

But I need my iPhone. And my iPad. And my 60 inch TV. And my 32 inch tv in my room. And my desk top. And each of those for my roommate/brother. And my bottled water.

How can I survive without these things!?!

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by kevman

Society is a ponzi scheme. Everything we do, and have done, is at the expense of a future generation. On a world scale the lives we live are unsustainable. One day the gig will be up. C'est la vie!

True, but not just future generations.

There is a limitation of accessible resources on the planet and wealth is directly related to one society being able to obtain those resources for less than their actual value. To put it bluntly, in order for there to be wealthy people (which most of use here are relatively speaking), there has to be poor people.

This has been sustainable in the West over the past few hundred years due to colonialism, but as more and more developing nations start demanding wealth and obtain the means to get it (usually by force), we will start to see a correction in how global wealth is distributed.

[polak]

Originally Posted by MattyC

But I need my iPhone. And my iPad. And my 60 inch TV. And my 32 inch tv in my room. And my desk top. And each of those for my roommate/brother. And my bottled water.

How can I survive without these things!?!

Haha oh man, are you sure you weren't camping with me this weekend? Had the exact same discussion around the fire. "We need more items". "Items that we move from place to place. Even when we don't need them". "Items we will only share with our immediate circle of friends and families".

Greed was an important aspect of human evolution. It drove innovation and created initiative. Now it's at the point where it's starting to hurt us more than benefit us.

This was my heavily intoxicated theory as to why we haven't seen any signs of an advanced civilization yet, despite the 14 billion years the universe has been around for them to evolve. Greed is a key factor in evolving into a civilized species but it's inherent flaw is that it cannot be turned off and thus causes every civilization to fail. Like a virus killing it's host.

[White Out 403]

I read somewhere or saw on a tv show (I think cosmos, the new one) about how there's a group of monkeys on one side of the river in Africa who were super cooperative and helpful to each other and on the otherside were monkeys who would steal and look out for themselves first and foremost. Guess which side of the river we share ancestors with?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

I read somewhere or saw on a tv show (I think cosmos, the new one) about how there's a group of monkeys on one side of the river in Africa who were super cooperative and helpful to each other and on the otherside were monkeys who would steal and look out for themselves first and foremost. Guess which side of the river we share ancestors with?

Conservatives?

[CaptainCrunch]

The sooner you people start stepping into the government mandated disintegration booths the quicker I can start going through your stuff.

[troutman]

Reminds me of The Human Zoo by Desmond Morris:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Human_Zoo_%28book%29

The Human Zoo is a book written by the British zoologist Desmond Morris, published in 1969.[1] It is a follow-up to his earlier book The Naked Ape; both books examine how the biological nature of the human species has shaped the character of the cultures of the contemporary world.

The Human Zoo examines the nature of civilized society, especially in the cities. Morris compares the human inhabitants of a city to the animal inhabitants of a zoo, which have their survival needs provided for, but at the cost of living in an unnatural environment. Humans in their cities, and animals in their zoos, both have food and shelter provided for them, and have considerable free time on their hands. But they have to live in an unnatural environment, and are both likely to have problems in developing healthy social relationships, both are liable to suffer from isolation and boredom, and both live in a limited amount of physical space. The book explains how the inhabitants of cities and zoos have invented ways to deal with these problems, and the consequences that follow when they fail at dealing with them.

[jammies]

Technology has allowed us to create digital goods that cost almost nothing to create, and nothing to replicate. We live on the cusp of a post-scarcity economy, not the peak of a scarcity economy about to topple into the abyss.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Solar is starting to get competitive... and it's essentially a limitless supply of power. We just have to deploy it.

SolarCity seems to be doing good work in the US. I hope we get a Canadian counterpart soon.

SolarCity, one of Elon Musk's companies, is (similar to Tesla) building a gigafactory. Theirs will obviously be for the production of solar panels, and will be located in South Bufffalo. It will be the largest producer of solar panels in the western hemisphere.

More info.

Moving past that, though... I think "doomsday" scenarios are a little ridiculous. Our society is advancing technologically at an insanely high rate... it's likely that before we get ourselves into any real serious trouble, we'll be to the point where we can solve our major environmental issues.

Population growth levels off, and then usually goes negative, with modernization... so that is something we should be actively pursuing. I think global internet efforts will help that.

Japan has demonstrated indoor farming that is vastly more efficient in terms of water, time, and space. So if pressed we should be able to expand our food supply significantly.

I honestly have difficulty seeing a realistic scenario in which society worldwide would just collapse, other than a global war or gigantic natural disaster (super volcano or asteroid/comet impact).

Basically... if we make it through the next 100 years (and I have yet to see a convincing reason why we won't), I think we'll be fine.

I'm not convinced any of the alternatives will be sufficient.

http://www.straight.com/news/452581/...-carbon-future

[Coach]

Originally Posted by jammies

Technology has allowed us to create digital goods that cost almost nothing to create, and nothing to replicate. We live on the cusp of a post-scarcity economy, not the peak of a scarcity economy about to topple into the abyss.

Yeah, all that digital food sure is delicious. I'll never have a steak again!

For the record, I agree we are on the cusp of a post scarcity economy, but only if we change our habits and integrate it properly (solar energy, hydroponic crops, cheap filters for freshwater, etc..).

But I believe we are, at the same time, at or close to the peak of a scarcity economy. Energy crisis, war, widespread poverty/starvation, ever-widening wealth gaps. All of that stuff is coming to a head and is purely our own making. We really need a global attitude adjustment in order to fend off our own extinction.

[CliffFletcher]

We may very well see standards of living in the West decline to the point where my kids will have the modest material lifestyle that my grandparents endured - except with far better health care, and an almost limitless access to digital entertainment. I don't think that would be a catastrophe.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Yeah, all that digital food sure is delicious. I'll never have a steak again!

For the record, I agree we are on the cusp of a post scarcity economy, but only if we change our habits and integrate it properly (solar energy, hydroponic crops, cheap filters for freshwater, etc..).

But I believe we are, at the same time, at or close to the peak of a scarcity economy. Energy crisis, war, widespread poverty/starvation, ever-widening wealth gaps. All of that stuff is coming to a head and is purely our own making. We really need a global attitude adjustment in order to fend off our own extinction.

War, poverty/starvation, and wealth gaps are at the best they've ever been. There's never been so few wars and so little bloodshed. There's never been less starvation and the wealth gap in the world (depending on definition) has never been better.

Most of what you are describing can be attributed to access to information to let us know what's actually going on elsewhere

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Most of what you are describing can be attributed to access to information to let us know what's actually going on elsewhere

In the West, we regard the halcyon post-wars years as the benchmark for security and affluence. That has made us insecure and pessimistic. But while we look back with longing on the 1948 to 1978 period, much of the rest of the world have seen their material standard of living improve enormously in the last 30 years.

And as you say, violence and war are way down - it's only the 24/7 news cycle that convinces us otherwise. I highly recommend the Better Angels of Our Nature by Steven Pinker for a powerful corrective to the doomsayers who say we live in world of worsening violence.