[News] Sens, Flames trying to 'outrun probability': Stinson

[Armchair Quarterback]

In today's National Post:

You are familiar with the storylines by now. In Calgary, a Flames team that was almost unanimously thought to be among the league’s bottom five teams — right where they were last year — has instead been inside the playoff bubble for most of the season. They seem to have accomplished this feat with the hockey equivalent of chewing gum, matchsticks and bailing wire, winning a pile of games in which their opponent thoroughly controlled the play. They have done unusually well in overtime and shootouts, have the most comeback wins in hockey, and have even had an absurd stretch of luck with their goalie pulled. They also happen to be one of the worst teams in the league in terms of shot differential, right there near the bottom with the Toronto Maple Leafs, who both appear to be terrible and, in fact, are.

...If the Flames are unable to eke out the required points to make the post-season, it won’t be a case of them losing their heart or finding their supply of grit tragically exhausted, but simply a case of their season-long high-wire act catching up to them. (Not to mention the impact of losing captain Mark Giordano for the season. That hurts in a very tangible way.)

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/03...-the-playoffs/

[SportsJunky]

Sounds about right. They have been defying the odds so far. Lets hope they can keep it up.

[Gaudfather]

The national media continue to under estimate the skill level on the Flames. That's ok they will learn soon enough.

[Poe969]

When I read this thread title, all I could think of was "Barney's a reporter now??"

The sens are like the Flames of the east this year. I want them to make the playoffs because of that and because I want the bruins to fail.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Sens are the Colorado of last year in my eyes. A team over achieving due to their goalie.

I'd like the see both teams make it, just don't think they're here for the same reasons.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

Sens are the Colorado of last year in my eyes. A team over achieving due to their goalie.

I'd like the see both teams make it, just don't think they're here for the same reasons.

Ditto, they've had their goalies go on tears to win games in bunches and that doesnt bode well in the playoffs. The Flames have succeeded despite average goaltending.

[Bingo]

there's plenty to think about yet this season, but I'm certainly curious to how the Flames look next year. The team will change sure ... guys will go, Bennett in, trades, UFA signings,etc

But how different will this team play next year? Will be a big curiosity in and out of Calgary.

[icarus]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

The national media continue to under estimate the skill level on the Flames. That's ok they will learn soon enough.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

The national media continue to under estimate the skill level on the Flames. That's ok they will learn soon enough.

They do, but at the same time, some of us are overestimating it. Over half the team is on career years. That simply will not repeat next year.

[burn_this_city]

Flames are 11th in shots per game, strange that somehow means they're near dead last when there's a whack of other teams with worse differentials.

[PeteMoss]

..If the Flames are unable to eke out the required points to make the post-season, it won’t be a case of them losing their heart or finding their supply of grit tragically exhausted, but simply a case of their season-long high-wire act catching up to them.

Hate this statement. Playing well for 76 games and then missing the playoffs isn't about the advanced stats catching up.

[Yoho]

I love how "They've done well in OT and shoot outs" but make no mention of grossly out scoring opponents in the third period through out working and out chancing them.

[metal_geek]

What I don't understand is the media talk about poor advanced stats for reasons why a team won't make the playoffs. You never hear them talk about non playoff teams with good advanced stats as a rational for not making the playoffs. Its always some other intangible or injury or coach or distraction or missing piece.

Its like the media has hundreds of logical reasons why you can miss the playoffs despite advanced stats but there are zero good reasons to make the playoffs with bad advanced stats...

I knows the advanced stats thing has been beaten to death, that's not what I'm getting at. Its articles like these that never make mention of the good stats of bad teams. It's like they keep looking for rational to support their early season predictions.

[Igster]

Just reads to me like another "they are lucky to be where they are and if they don't make the playoffs, then well, I told you so or if they do, well, they are still being lucky" article.

[sharkov]

The media still thinks flames are all about luck eh

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

..If the Flames are unable to eke out the required points to make the post-season, it won’t be a case of them losing their heart or finding their supply of grit tragically exhausted, but simply a case of their season-long high-wire act catching up to them.

Hate this statement. Playing well for 76 games and then missing the playoffs isn't about the advanced stats catching up.

Just going to say that if the Flames don't make it, it will be probably more to do with the abnormally high point threshold to make the playoffs. What they have done is put together a great season so far.

[Igottago]

The Flames are in the playoff race because they deserve to be there, and they will be in the playoffs if they deserve to be there based on the last 6 games.

I fee like the people writing these articles haven't actually watched a Flames game all season.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

Sounds about right. They have been defying the odds so far. Lets hope they can keep it up.

Sounds about wrong.
Just says we told you so

[sharkov]

As for advanced stats determining which teams are playoff bound and which teams are not, I'd rather the flames make that one shot count than have plenty of shots attempted that have no purpose in order to pad up the Corsi numbers

[CgyFlamesftw]

Sounds similar over on HF boards. They all seem to think we've been over achieving with great goaltending. Clearly nobody watches any flames games.