[GDT] Flames vs. Flyers, 7 pm, SNW

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Flames: 38-27-5, 81 points, 4th in the Pacific, 9th in the West, 17th in NHL.

Flyers: 29-28-15, 73 points, 5th in the Metropolitan, 11th in the East, 23rd in NHL.


It's crazy what 2 losses in a row will do to you at this time of year. Not long ago, the Flames were 2nd in the division and looking like a very strong playoff candidate. At this point, they're going to have to battle like crazy to get in. I know they're only 1 point out of both the last wild card spot as well as 3rd in the division, but they're still on the outside looking in. The good news is that the Kings and Jets have some of the toughest schedules of any team coming up in the next few weeks. It's becoming doubtful that the Flames will overtake either of the Canucks or Wild at this point with 12 games left, 3 and 4 points back respectively, and both teams playing fairly well. The Flames would likely have to nearly run the table and have those teams play around .500 to even have a chance of moving ahead of either one. So it will likely come down to 2 of the 3 of Kings, Jets, and Flames making the playoffs. It should make the last 2 games of the year against the Kings and Jets incredibly exciting. I would recommend getting some nitrous/aspirin tablets now for any angina/heart attacks that will almost definitely occur.

Tonight, the Flames face the Flyers, a team that had a nice run in the middle of the year, but are now falling back from the playoff picture as they have gone a little cold while both the Bruins and Senators have gone red hot (much to my dismay as a Panthers fan). It's hard to fathom how a team can have 2 top scorers in Voracek and Giroux (ranked 5th and 14th in NHL scoring), yet still have the 21st ranked offense in the league. The Flyers have just 5 players with double digit goals, compared to the Flames having 10 (although to be fair, the Flyers have 4 players stuck on 9 goals). This low offensive output is somehow despite having the 3rd ranked power play in the entire NHL. Also puzzling, is how Steve Mason can have the 7th ranked Sv% (.925) and 13th ranked GAA (2.27), yet the Flyers are still the 21st ranked defensive team at 2.74 GA/G. Having the 29th ranked PK doesn't help either (77%). How many of you are surprised at Mason's numbers? I know I was. Yeah, he gives up a bad goal now and then, but who doesn't? The Flyers play an aggressive attack game, but that leads to a lot of defensive lapses and opportunities given up. This bodes well for a Flames squad trying to find their offense after being stymied by the Blues the other night.

The Flames still have the 8th ranked offense in the league at 2.87 GF/G, and the GA/G is still 15th at 2.61, but their 5 on 5 ratio has dropped down to 17th at 1.02. This falling stat is due in part to the fact that the Flames special teams have been so much better of late. The power play is back up to 18.8% ranked 12th, and the penalty kill that was hovering around 76% for the first half of the year and ranked in the bottom 5 is now up to 80.1%, while still ranked 23rd. That doesn't seem like a big push, but considering how few penalties the Flames take, that PK% has been regularly over 90% in the past couple of months. I'll take that trend any time. I have a feeling that the drop in 5 on 5 play is partly due to the increase in the level of play league-wide as teams make a playoff push. The style of play has been more and more "playoff-like" in the last few weeks, and officials are calling less and less. This benefits teams like L.A. and Winnipeg, but is a challenge for smaller skilled teams like Calgary, and we've seen that when the Flames play teams like the Avalanche. That game was a prime example of how officiating changes as playoffs near. What would have been an obvious penalty in November, the officials are now reluctant to call for fear of determining a game that both teams have so much stake in. I would rather have consistent officiating, but it is what it is, and the Flames will have to fight through the tighter checking at even strength to get their goals. Bodies to the front of the net and players like Bouma, Jones, Colborne, Monahan, and Ferland have to drive the puck to the net. That's how you score 5 on 5 from here on in.

Playoff Update: The loss and OOT from Tuesday night hurt. Before that night the Flames were sitting around 84% chance to make the playoffs. After everything went wrong their chances are now 73% heading into tonight's game. Every win and loss will have a significant impact on their odds for the rest of the way. A win tonight is +5.8%, but a loss is a scary -12.1% to their chances of making the playoffs. While the OOT is still important, there aren't any big swings with the outcomes of those games. St. Louis beating Winnipeg is +3.3%, Washington beating Minnesota is +1.0%, and Columbus beating Vancouver is also +1.0%. Wins by those teams aren't nearly as bad as it would be -2.8%, -0.7%, and -0.4% respectively. I think we are nearly at the point of ruling San Jose out of the playoff picture, as a win from them is only -0.7% to our playoff chances.

Roster Notes: No updates other than the Flames recalled Markus Granlund from Adirondack yesterday. The Flyers are missing R.J. Umberger (hip), Matt Read (paternity), and Mike Del Zotto (upper body) all in the last few days, although Del Zotto has declared himself ready to return. Whether he actually plays or not is debatable.


Flames
Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Bouma-Backlund-Jones
Raymond-Jooris-Colborne
Bollig-Stajan-Ferland

Russell-Wideman
Brodie-Engelland
Schlemko-Diaz

Ramo?


Flyers
Raffl-Giroux-Voracek
Schenn-Couturier-Simmonds
White-Cousins-Rinaldo
VandeVelde-Bellmare-Lecavalier

Schultz-Streit
Grossman-MacDonald
Colaiacovo-Schenn

Mason




Go Flames Go!!!

[codynw]

Wooooo retro night!!! This means I can get a retro Gaudreau jersey and it won't be a lie.

[dissentowner]

Absolutely have to have 2 points tonight

[troutman]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Absolutely have to have 2 points tonight

It feels that way, but not true. CGY has to go something like 6-6-1.

Our odds actually went up last night, and LA's went down.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by troutman

It feels that way, but not true. CGY has to go something like 6-6-1.

Our odds actually went up last night, and LA's went down.

Maybe but you have to bank points against the teams out of it.

[foshizzle11]

I still think 3 losses in a row wouldn't be good for this team so I think it's a must win.

After last game and just squeaking out a win, they better come out full throttle to start the first period because they have to know that philly probably still believe they can get into the playoffs...no matter how far out they are.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Like I said, a win only adds roughly 6% to our chances, and a loss subtracts roughly 12% from our chances. Losses hurt double what a win adds, so every win is extremely important from here on out, especially against teams that aren't as good.

[tvp2003]

Tough call, but my guess is Ramo gets the start. Unless Hartley is willing to give Hiller another game because they were playing the Blues. I guess we'll see after the morning skate...

[Vinny01]

I agree this is basically a must win game. The rest of the homestand is really important to win almost every game. It is an easier part of the schedule and the games are all at home. We get the next 8 points we are in a position that .500 is almost a lock for a playoff spot.

I am not sold that 6-6 gets us in even 7-5 to be totally secure we need 8-4

[cofias]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Tough call, but my guess is Ramo gets the start. Unless Hartley is willing to give Hiller another game because they were playing the Blues. I guess we'll see after the morning skate...

Hiller needs to start to show off his dope new mask and gear in game action.

[Toonage]

I don't see why they wouldn't give Hiller the start. He was great in the St. Louis game. I seriously didn't think any of the goals were his fault.

[Finger Cookin]

I prefer the 50/50 sim on sportsclubstats this time of year as opposed to the weighted sim. The Flames can get in comfortably with 5 regulation losses over the last twelve games. The odds improve even more if we can get any of those 5 losses into OT instead of regulation. A 7-5 finish puts qualification chances at 83.7%. 7-3-2 ups that to 97.8%. 6-6 (or other variations of a .500 points percentage) basically puts the Flames at 40% odds at this point.

6-4 over the next 10 games is reasonable. Which means that those last two games are looming large.

This is still in the Flames' hands.

[Huntingwhale]

It will be extremely disappointing if the Flames lose this one. Bad time to go on a skid , especially with barely any help on the OOT.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

It will be extremely disappointing if the Flames lose this one. Bad time to go on a skid , especially with barely any help on the OOT.

Barely any help? Recently, WIN is 4-4, SJ 0-2, LA 1-1-1.

[Split98]

I really hope Hiller gets the start

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

It will be extremely disappointing if the Flames lose this one. Bad time to go on a skid , especially with barely any help on the OOT.

If the Flames continue the 6-3-1 "skid" they've been on over the last 10 games, they'll qualify with a win in either of the final two games.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Absolutely have to have 2 points tonight

I don't think it's a "must win" game, but it sure would go a long way in my head. I hate having this sinking feeling that we're going to have our hearts crushed with a losing streak.

I must be a long time Flames fan

The sooner we are 100% in the playoffs the better.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

I don't think it's a "must win" game, but it sure would go a long way in my head. I hate having this sinking feeling that we're going to have our hearts crushed with a losing streak.

I must be a long time Flames fan

The sooner we are 100% in the playoffs the better.

Sometimes I wish we still had Glenny & Gio for some insurance. Sometimes it feels like we're running on fumes.

[HUSKER4FLAMES]

Originally Posted by cali flames fan

like i said, a win only adds roughly 6% to our chances, and a loss subtracts roughly 12% from our chances. Losses hurt double what a win adds, so every win is extremely important from here on out, especially against teams that aren't as good.

this is most definitely a must not lose without a loser point game unless they win a bunch more before the end of the year game or another team loses more

[heep223]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Sometimes I wish we still had Glenny & Gio for some insurance. Sometimes it feels like we're running on fumes.