"Sustainable" - Why use the Avs and Leafs as the parallel?

[GranteedEV]

How about we look at a team that

1) Actually has a sample size that we can take a look at over a longer period of time than just last year.
2) Has held a similar "Comeback Kids" reputation of defining "clutch" play.
3) Has had the same goaltender.

The 2011 Ducks by all Ryan Lambert metrics did not belong in the playoffs. Let's start with a look at their D-core. One of the advantages the Flames have is that although their forwards are young, their blueline is experienced. What were the ages of the Ducks blueline going by minutes?

Visnovsky
ATOI 24:18
Age 34

Lydman
ATOI 22:10
Age 33

Fowler
ATOI 22:08
Age 19

Beauchemin
ATOI 21:42
Age 30

Basically they had a similar team makeup in that they depended on three veteran defenseman and a young gun. In general our vets are a bit younger (31,31,27) and Brodie's older (24).

Now we take a look at the 2011 Ducks' underlying stats

CF% - 44.8 All Situations (30th in NHL)
FF% - 45.9 All Situations (28th in NHL)
SH% - 9.96 (1st in NHL)
SV% - 91.20 (15th in NHL)

Don't those look rather similar to what we've been getting this season?

That's a team that finished 47-30-5. A team that needed to rebuild from the vestiges of the Niedermayer/Pronger/Selanne cup team. We probably don't finish that nicely especially with Giordano done for the season and the injury of Paul Byron can be seen in how our overtime dominance has disappeared a bit (we've gone to two shootouts and lost an OT since he's been out, though we've still won another OT.) In fairness, our Monahan is 20 and their Getzlaf was 25. What's not surprising is that they're the one team that's been able to beat the Flames at what the Flames do best... they've had a crazy comeback in the 3rd period, they forced us to send Joni Ortio back down to the A, and they've scored some damn flukey goals on the Flames. They're probably looking at Hartley's team and seeing a reflection of the past.

So how do the 2015 Flames' underlyings stack up so far, in case you needed a refresher for the 100th time?:

CF% - 47.0 All Situations (26th in NHL)
FF% - 47.8 All Situations (25th in NHL)
SH% - 10.38 (2nd in NHL)
SV% - 91.16 (11th in NHL)

That's gotta be encouraging, right?

The Regression

Yes, Anaheim missed the playoffs in 2012. But since then they've trended only upwards even with the retirement of Teemu Selanne (Who you could liken to our Jiri Hudler maybe?), and currently are leading the pack for the President's Trophy. Oh, and they're not doing it by "Elite Underlying stats" now either. They're 20th in CF%, 17th in FF%, 9th in SH%, and 15th in SV%. They no longer have Jonas Hiller, but instead rely on guys from their own system - Frederik Andersen and John Gibson (Notable guys in our system would be Joni Ortio, Jon Gillies, and Mason MacDonald).

Basically, the Ducks have cultivated their clutchness into a winning attitude that defies logic sustainably. It hasn't however yet gotten them over the cup hump as they lost a wild-as-hell 7-game series to the eventual champs. That's way further than the SC runner up Rangers took the Kings.

So - the question is: Would you be you a satisfied fan if 4 years from now, the Flames are about as successful as the Ducks have been over the last 4 years?

My Answer:

No, because we still have Sam Bennett on the way.

[Roof-Daddy]

Interesting. Nice digging.

I for one would be happy if the Flames emulated the Ducks recent growth/success.

They are a true Cup contender, and likely will be for several more years yet. That's where I want the Flames to get to as well.

[Knut]

The biggest thing the Ducks have right now over the flames is size up front. A big scoring winger like Perry can really wear down the defense.

Really solid comparison though and is a good counter=argument to the Leafs/AVS trumpeters.

[Resolute 14]

Honestly, pointing to another exception team doesn't prove anything more than the fact that exceptions exist. But that Ducks team is another good example for the fancystats crowd to remind them of this very same fact: exceptions exist.

The better question for me is to ask why they seem to think the Avs proves anything. It is truly bizarre that they trumpet a division winner as a big example of how bad Corsi = failed team.

[heep223]

What are the Ducks advanced stats this year?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by heep223

What are the Ducks advanced stats this year?

Right in the OP.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Oh, and they're not doing it by "Elite Underlying stats" now either. They're 20th in CF%, 17th in FF%, 9th in SH%, and 15th in SV%.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Right in the OP.

Ah yes, thank you.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Hesla

The biggest thing the Ducks have right now over the flames is size up front. A big scoring winger like Perry can really wear down the defense.

Really solid comparison though and is a good counter=argument to the Leafs/AVS trumpeters.

That is the exciting thing about our prospect pool. There definitely size and skill coming.

[Robbob]

Out of curiosity, what were the advanced stats for the Blackhawks prior to their first cup? Would that be easy to find?

[Badgers Nose]

Thanks OP. Great post.

[Racki]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

That Ducks team is another good example for the fancystats crowd to remind them of this very same fact: exceptions do exist.

This is what drives me insane about the Lambert's and Mirtle's of the world. They are so convinced that they've cracked that secret code that they've eliminated in their minds the possibility of exceptions. They also don't allow for the possibility of improvement.

They've already written next years Flames off. I mean, isn't it possible that another year of growth for guys like Gaudreau, Monahan and Bouma might make us better? Is it possible that the full-time additions of guys like Bennett, Poirier, Ferland and Wolf might improve the team? Of course it is. But these stats guys just assume that you are who you are forever - and there's no arguing with them.

[CaptainCrunch]

Colorado's blueline last year was no where near comparible to what Calgary will go in with next year if we keep the top 4.

I'd argue that while the Avs have a way more skilled top 6, that the Flames have a deeper forward group with a better bottom 6.

The Avs got some pretty amazing goaltending from Varlamov who was in consideration for the Vezina last year, he has been slightly more human this year.

The two teams aren't compatible, so I don't believe that the predictions are accurate.

[Bingo]

THN gives up in trying to understand the Flames
http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/ca...orce-overtime/

We keep waiting for Calgary to fall on its face, but it looks more and more like we’ve found this year’s Colorado Avalanche. The regression may not happen this season, and the scary part is that, by then, Calgary’s youngsters can improve enough to mask any potential regression anyway. The PDO (save percentage + shooting percentage) should come back to Earth, but what if Calgary’s core improves and increases scoring chances enough to offset that? It can only help when Bennett, the No. 2 prospect in Future Watch 2015, joins the fray.

[PeteMoss]

Geez.. just wait until those teams with better PDOs than us regress.

[Erick Estrada]

Sports are year to year anyway. There are really no guarantees for any team as you have player turnover, players progressing/regressing, injuries, etc. The one and only constant is the Oilers losing more games than they win. Worry about this season and this season only and worry about next season when this season is over.

[pylon]

I really wish advanced stats would just get launched right into the sun.

You will never be able to generate a stat that measures team chemistry and work ethic. Advanced stat 'gurus' write every team that bucks the trend as an anomaly, and every team that happens to fall into the framework of the stats as a proven example. Duh, that's exactly how life is. Sometimes there is exceptions to the rule for unquantifiable reasons.

If advanced stats applied in real life, then only University educated people with IQ's over 130 should be wealthy. Well there are thousands of high school drop outs that buck that trend and become highly successful entrepreneurs because of work ethic and desire.

The stats only tell a tiny part of the story, and I truly believe some of these advanced stats guys, don't even like hockey, they just get a giant boner staring at an excel spread sheet, look at soulless numbers preying something in them confirms they are right, so they can froth at the mouth smashing the words "I told you so!" into their keyboards. They might as well just build paper rosters, and cheer for the piece of paper, and the piece of paper with the best calculation is awarded the Stanley Cup. That's what they seem to want.

[Sylvanfan]

I think most any Flames fan would be willing to accept that it's not likely the team will be able to mount as many late comebacks next year as they have this year. If the team was to put out the exact same lineup and try to duplicate this season they surely would regress, and certainly the results would not be the same.

The thing is that teams change season over season. Colorado as an example had a pretty significant change in that Paul Statsny moved out as the 2nd line C and Jarome Iginla came in on the wing. After all if Colorado does improve it's possession numbers next year what will the reason be?

The key factor for the Flames is that they will need to make an effort to improve the team in the offseason, and it's something I expect they will try. Sam Bennett should prove to be a useful addition to the lineup. Furthermore the Flames don't look to be losing any significant pieces from this years team while having the cap flexibility to seek out upgrades where they feel they need them. The Ducks from 10-11 to 11-12 where mostly unchanged and the same group of players like Perry and Getzlaf who had huge seasons struggled that season. The past two seasons they have changed things in the offseason and have received good production from their top players.

Ultimately though, I think a team like the Ducks lack some of those intangibles that separate winners and losers in the playoffs. Which is why they have lost to Detroit, Nashville, and Los Angeles the last three times they have been beaten out. I think talent wise Anaheim stacks up or beats those teams, but didn't have the same drive that those three teams did at the time.

[Northendzone]

why would any team outside of the oilers use the leafs as any kind of paralell?

[Enoch Root]

To answer the question in the thread title:

confirmation bias

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Out of curiosity, what were the advanced stats for the Blackhawks prior to their first cup? Would that be easy to find?

In 2008-09, the Hawks were third with a CF% of 55.2, 15th with a PDO of 99.8 (7.41 sh% - 21st and .924 sv%, 7th). Their success was in their stingyness, they had the fewest Corsi events against with 2698. All of that at 5 on 5. Their Corsi close was fifth at 54.5. Interestingly, the Flames were second in CF% in both 5 on 5 and 5 on 5 close. In 2007-08, the Hawks were middle of the pack.