[GDT] Flames vs. Penguins, 7 pm, SNW

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Flames: 29-20-3, 61 points, 3rd in the Pacific, 6th in the West, 14th in NHL.

Penguins: 29-14-8, 66 points, 2nd in the Metropolitan, 5th in the East, 8th in NHL.

I normally focus on the other team and the challenges they present to the Flames, but today I'll give an abridged version of that. Instead, I want you to read what I posted in another thread about what it will take to make the playoffs, especially after everything went our way last night.

All this talk of 96 points or 94 points is just a rough estimate remember. The barrier could be as high as 100 points this particular season, just for argument's sake. You never know how the season will shake out.

Personally, I like point percentage, because that gives you a better understanding of what the pace is currently at, and what will likely be required to be a playoff team.

For example, here are the point percentages of the 8 teams currently in the playoffs, and the percentage of the teams that are close.

1. Nashville-.720
2. Anaheim-.706
3. St. Louis-.700
4. Chicago-.627
5. Vancouver-.602
6. Calgary-.587
7. San Jose-.587
8. Winnipeg-.575
---------------------
9. Minnesota-.540
10. Dallas-.540
11. L.A.-.540
12. Colorado-.539

If teams play at their current paces, Winnipeg would take the 8th seed with 94 points. For any of those 4 teams chasing Winnipeg to get in, they would have to win at a 62.5% point percentage the rest of the way, so basically being as good as Chicago has so far this year over the next 32 games. Could one team catch fire and do it? Sure. Could Winnipeg, or a different team, fall out of contention with a record well below what they've done so far this year? Absolutely.

Just for example, for the Flames or Sharks to fall to 94 points, they would have to play at a 55% point pace, or basically being just a little better than Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota and L.A., OR, being just as good as the Florida Panthers have been this year. That would still give the Flames a good shot at the playoffs however, as one of those teams would have to play to the level of Chicago, as previously stated.

BUT, just to take out the aberrations, the Flames pace has been marred by an 8 game losing streak that has been unprecedented, even with the poor results of the last two seasons. The worst streak last year was 6 in a row, and 5 the year before that, our two worst seasons in a decade, one of them our worst season ever. For arguments sake, let's just look at our point percentage if you remove those 8 games from the season so far.

Current Games Played: 52
Current Points: 61
Current point%: .587

Hypothetical Games Played: 44
Hypothetical points: 60
Hypothetical Point%: .682

Ok, so the first thought is, "those games still count and shouldn't be ignored", and I agree, except that it should be considered an aberration because of how different our point percentages are with, and without that streak. Further to the point, I'd argue that the Flames this year are much closer to a team that is unlikely to go on a big losing streak, rather than be prone to them. Why? Because up to that point, the Flames had failed to lose 2 games in regulation all season long. Since then, they have only lost 3 in a row once, indicating that multiple losses in a row are an aberration, and not the norm for this team. That wasn't the case the last two seasons where there were several streaks of 3,4,5 game losing streaks.

For arguments sake, let's allow a 5 game losing streak (one better than our worst streak in our worst season ever) instead of 8.

Current Games Played: 52
Current Points: 61
Current Point%: .587

Hypothetical Games Played: 52
Hypothetical Points: 67
Hypothetical Point%: .644

Even allowing for a 5 game losing streak, or getting 3 more wins during the course of that streak, would give the Flames a point percentage around the level of the New York Islanders (.650) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (.647). Now look at the goal differentials (another reliable measure of team success) and you will see the Flames' +20 is right on par with both the Islanders (+17) and the Penguins (+18). The only team that would have a similar point% and a very dissimilar goal differential is the 'Hawks (+37) who have struggled to win close games this year, but have no trouble blowing teams out.

If you take that hypothetical .644 point%, which aligns well with their goal differential, you would assume that they would be close to that pace the rest of the way. Even if they can only manage a .600 point %, which would be below what you could expect but close to their current point percentage, they would end up with 97 points, pretty much guaranteeing a comfortable playoff spot. If they were closer to the hypothetical .644 it would be as much as 99 points, and I've never seen anyone miss the playoffs with that number. If you want to have fun, the earlier hypothetical of 0.682 would lead to 102 points, but I don't necessarily expect that to happen.

Basically, if this has become a tl/dr, I am arguing that even if you allow for a 5 game losing streak earlier this year, the Flames should be considered on par with teams like NYI, and PIT, and maybe just a step behind CHI. That's pretty heady company, and I have no doubts in my mind that the Flames will have a playoff spot come April. They could probably endure a couple more rough patches of 3 game losing streaks, or 1 point in 4 games, and still make the playoffs.

On to the game tonight. Pittsburgh beat us earlier this year in their building, smack in the middle of the famed 8 game losing streak. Still, it was a close 3-1 loss, their last goal coming late in the 3rd as the flames were pressing hard for the equalizer. The Penguins will be without 2 of their goal scorers in that game, as Rob Klinkhammer was traded to Edmonton in the Perron deal, and Blake Comeau is out with injury. Unfortunately, David Perron has caught fire in Pittsburgh, scoring 7 goals in his last 13 games (but is still a -5 over that span…some things never change). Crosby and Malkin come as advertised, leading the team with 53 and 52 points respectively, Malkin just returning from injury last game in Edmonton. Kunitz hasn't been quite all there this year, and there's been speculation about trading him to get a better top 6 winger, namely one Evander Kane.

Like most good teams, the Penguins are pretty solid 5 on 5, but they excel at special teams, owning the 3rd best penalty kill (86.7%) and the 7th best power play (22.2%). The Flames are going to have to continue their recent trend of strong penalty killing to have a chance tonight.

Hiller's game has been found again following the all-star break, and his Sv% is now up to .915, and his GAA is down to 2.31, equal to Fleury's.

This is a chance for the Flames to correct their 7-11-2 record against Eastern teams. This game is shaping up to be a very even contest, and it's important to get some points against teams that they are not competing directly against, even though the Flames have been excellent against their own division with a 16-4-1 record against the Pacific.


Roster Notes: The Flames returned both Markus Granlund and Sven Baertschi to Adirondack yesterday, indicating that both Wolf and Glencross are near returning, but it's been stated that Glencross won't play tonight. The Penguins recently got Malkin back, but are without the services of Blake Comeau and Olli Maatta, along with the blood clot keeping Pascal Dupuis out long term. Christian Ehrhoff will be kept out of the lineup tonight as they continue to observe concussion protocol.


Flames
Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Raymond-Jooris-Colborne
Bouma-Backlund-Jones
Bollig-Stajan-Byron

Giordano-Brodie
Russell-Wideman
Diaz-Engelland

Hiller

Penguins
Kunitz-Crosby-Perron
Arcobello-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Downie
Sill-Lapierre-Adams

Martin-Letang
Scuderi-Despres
Bortuzzo-Pouliot

Fleury





Go Flames Go!!!

[cupraisedn89]

Great write up Cali, like how the previous write up was thrown in there for comparison.
Hiller's Sv% continues to amaze me. Really looking forward to puck drop tonight!
GO FLAMES GO!!

[Caged Great]

What is it with the Flames and Birds?

We sucked against the Thrashers when they were in Atlanta.
We suck against Anaheim
We haven't beaten the Penguins since 2005, Crosby's first game against the Flames. Mario Lemieux was playing in that game. That's how long it's been.

Just bizarre.

[Thor]

Yay! Staying up late to watch this one, hoping for an exciting game, I think we break the curse tonight.

[wireframe]

3-1 penguins. I have a bad feeling about this one.

The Flames have to lose eventually and this is a better time to do it than against a western team.

[heep223]

Lol at that pic of Russell stamping the Pens player

[Poe969]

6-3 Flames.

[cupraisedn89]

Originally Posted by Poe969

6-3 Flames.

That prediction is almost as bold as a Toyota Camry... Almost

[Scoutski]

Yeah, not expecting a win, but not a bad game to lose. Yesterday's OOT scores were pretty friendly. Still looking forward to it because I won't count these guys out!

[Poe969]

Well the Flames are playing well and I think Johnny is going to have a great game.

I'm also expecting at least one goal from any of Diaz, Bolig, England or Raymond.

[Flames89]

I am hoping for 3-1 Flames
Johnny, Gio, and Backlund
Adams for a hometown goal

[FlameZilla]

lol @ Oiler rejects playing in the top 6 of one of the Eastern Conference's best teams.

[nemanja2306]

Is anybody else especially excited to see how Monahan does against Crosby/Malkin? Two best centers in the league, should be a great challenge for him, let's see him step up his game.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by nemanja2306

Is anybody else especially excited to see how Monahan does against Crosby/Malkin? Two best centers in the league, should be a great challenge for him, let's see him step up his game.

Absolutely. Also looking forward to seeing Gaudreau against them. This is going to be fun!

[Poe969]

My biggest worry for this game is Lapierre. He's still a summer's eve product.

[kyuss275]

Flames can win this if they stay out of the penalty box.

[playmaker]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Kunitz-Crosby-Perron
Arcobello-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Downie
Sill-Lapierre-Adams

Martin-Letang
Scuderi-Despres
Bortuzzo-Pouliot

Fleury

[ClubFlames]

Lets hope this game has a playoff vibe to it so Fleury can play like it too.

[SOMBRI2]

Remind me if that Despres hit on Smid was legal...we gotta play physical to have a chance in this game.

[etc]

To be fair I'm pretty sure Comeau is in their top 6 usually