QOTD: Does an unexpected 4 game road win streak wipe out hte 8 game losing streak?

[Bingo]

Clubsportstats has upped the Flames percentage of making the playoffs to the high 70s

With this road trip assured a success the Flames now come home for a slew of home games before the best briar trip.

They're not exactly dominating, but a new element in Ortio has been added to the mix.

Does this unexpected streak reduce the damage from the 8 game losing streak?

[burn_this_city]

They needed to go on a run like this to help make up the lost points from the skid. If they can go on a few more 3-4 game win streaks I like their chances to get in.

[Hockeyguy15]

If they beat the Ducks to finish this road trip I would say that losing streak isn't an issue anymore and was just some adversity for the guys to learn from.

[Erick Estrada]

Nope. IMO that skid will likely be the difference between missing and making the playoffs. This 4 game winning streak would have to turn to a 10 game winning streak to cancel it out so they have a lot of work to do.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

To be honest, after the Florida 6-5 loss, I thought "this team isn't making the playoffs." They looked defensively lost, and despite scoring 5 goals weren't even THAT good offensively, and didn't find a way to get 2 points in a very winnable game.

Obviously I'm less sure now, but as you say it's not like they have been dominating. Put Hiller or Ramo in net last night and I'm not so sure that Calgary finds a way to win that game. On the other hand, the PP showed signs of life, Monahan is scoring and Backlund looks fantastic--these are all good signs.

I guess what I'm trying to say is I'm remaining even-keeled about this season. I think there are a ton of positives to build on next year, and yes--they may squeak into the playoffs. At the very least, it looks like they will be competitive until the final week of the season at this pace. Either way, the key takeaway is that this team has taken a huge step forward, and that's great news for next year.

It is interesting that Calgary's 1-point bulge on LA, with the same number of games played, translates to a 70% chance of making it in.

[Murph]

Evens the scales and with 6 home games coming out of the break (a couple against soft opponents), things are looking up. Really looking forward to the games against Winnipeg and San Jose in early February towards the end of the home stand.

[Geeoff]

That 8 game streak still hurts. We'd have a much bigger cushion if we just went .500

[SuperMatt18]

Nope, makes the 8 game losing streak hurt even more because of where we could be if we had even gotten 5 points out of those 8 games.

[mrkajz44]

I didn't agree with "nope, makes a new skid more likely", but I'm not quite at "evens the scales". Its somewhere inbetween at this point for me. They've been good since the skid, but they need to keep up this play if they want to contend. I wouldn't say the losing streak has been completely wiped out, but its great to see the guys have put that behind them.

[GGG]

That streak really hurt. Just win the buffalo and Toronto games and we are in much better shape, add Florida to that an you have a 6 point swing that puts you in the playoffs. That streak, if we miss will still be looked at a thing that consistent playoff teams don't allow to happen. Even just pick up a few loser points like LA does in it's skid makes a huge difference.

I'm in the enjoy the ride category. We also can't afford three game losing streaks.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Every team has rough stretches. Ours just happened to occur when the goaltending went sour. It affected literally everything else as the Flames tried to scramble even more in their own end to cover up more for the goalie, never sure of when a weak one was going in, destroying team confidence. When they had to collapse nearly constantly to help the goalie, they lost the ability to get out of their zone and spring a couple forwards in a transition attack, which has led to most of their offense this year. This isn't a team that can consistently grind out a cycle game and create consistent offensive pressure, just not enough size. So they rely on speed and defensemen joining the rush to create great opportunities. Without the ability to create speed in transition and have defensemen join the rush, they lost most of their offense. The defense wasn't terrible in that stretch (looking at shots against), just had to play from behind way too often, which forces them to become overly aggressive, leading to more odd man rushes the other way.

It all starts in net with this team, and they can beat any team when the goalies are playing confidently and not giving up any weak goals. The rest of this season will depend on what they decide to do with the goaltending situation. Unless Ortio falters badly I think he will stick and they will move one of the other 2 goaltenders. He's likely to push the veteran goalie more than either Hiller or Ramo would push someone. With the Hiller/Ramo tandem, it was a matter of playing whoever was hotter/better. Lately though, it's been more an approach of "who won't screw up as much".

You're not going to be a playoff team without consistent goaltending. There's just no way to build a system for the entire team without knowing what you can get from your goalie on a regular basis.

[Radically Red]

I said it evens the scales.
Since that streak we have had two 4 games win streaks and one 3 game losing streak.

The 4 game winnings streaks even out the 8 games to more of a 500 record to me.
Its the 3 game Losing streak that is keeping things out of balance. need to counter that one now.

[Resolute 14]

I can't vote for either of the first two options as we have went from battling for first in the division pre-skid to battling for the last playoff spot now, even after the four-game streak. But I can't vote for the third option because it is a non sequitur. I have no idea how a winning streak makes a losing streak more likely, and even if it did, it has no relevance to the question asked.

So, I choose option 4: "Not completely". Our early success was enough that the eight game losing streak didn't completely bury us. But this winning streak has only partially dug us out of the hole. It also gives us, basically, a freebie tomorrow night in Anaheim. But this team still needs to make hay against three very bad teams when we come home.

[Imported_Aussie]

The 70% chance is based on Sportsclubstats "weighted" formula. When you go to 50/50, the odds drop to 62.4%, meanwhile San Jose firms, but LA actually declines slightly

Weighted: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
50/50: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL2.html

What does "Weighted" mean

Originally Posted by sportsclubstats

The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.

This means that LA Kings' road heavy record is factored in, and quality of opposition is also considered. This means that at least in the eyes of the data geniuses, the Flames have the most favourable run home between the Flames, Kings and Sharks

[RyZ]

Nope. An 8 game win streak would even out the 8 game losing streak (.500). 4 games is only half way there.

[Finger Cookin]

Weighted seems fair in the 20-60 game range, as it does take into account performance to date in the season. When there's <20 games played or to go, I prefer to check the 50/50 results.

The Pacific is shaping up to be Anaheim way in front, Phoenix and Edmonton way behind, and the other 4 teams battling for 2-3 spots. If we can get our act together on the next Eastern road swing, I like the Flames chances.

[Stay Golden]

Battled their way back it's up to the team now.
Make no mistake Ortio's stellar goal tending and some timely goals for got the team these last 8 points.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by RyZ

Nope. An 8 game win streak would even out the 8 game losing streak (.500). 4 games is only half way there.

We should count the games before too. In this situation better to look at it as a twenty game block. Just as arbitrary as starting the comparison with our first loss.

Hockey is a game of bounces. The Flames could have easily lost tonight. Could have easily won a few of those 8 games. Luck evens out over an 82 game schedule.

[DJones]

Kind of off topic but I hate the inconsistency of how people talk about losing streaks. Say a team wins one, loses two and then wins the 4th game. I've literally seen it explained like 5 different ways depending on how the reporter or analysis views the team.

1.) Bad - "they managed to snap a two game losing streak" I hate this one because if you snap a two game losing streak by default you've gone 2-2 in the last four which isn't terrible.
2.) Neutral - "Have gone 500 in their last 4 games"
3.) Good - "A few bounces and they are 3-1 over this road trip"

I'm sure I could go on but you get the idea. Problem gets worse when they talk about one teams last 11 games but then the other teams last 4 games. Why not mention the same time frame? It just completely opens it up to bias. Last ten games and current streak is the only thing I trust now a days.

Imagine how the Kings will be reported. From "Only two wins in 14 games" to "have gotten points in 6 out of their last 8 games". Didn't stat check those haha but you get the idea.

[DJones]

To bring that on topic, from just knowledge of the streaks and nothing more. An 0-8 streak is actually 2-8 while our current streak is 4-1.

So that's 6-9, to cancel out the losing streak to .500 we need to extend the streak by 3 or go 4-1, 5-2 in our next however many games.