30 games left, playoff requirements

[CaptainCrunch]

I was thinking about this last night. If we believe that the playoff barrier is 94 points, based on last years playoff barrier. The following teams would need to basically have the following records to make the post season.

Calgary currently have 61 points with 30 games left.

They would need to gain 33 points which would be a 16-13-1 record. or any equivalent record

San Jose has 61 points with 30 games left, the Flames have won the season series against the Sharks. so to pass the Flames they would need 34 points or a 17-13 or equivalent record

Winnipeg has 61 points with 29 games left Calgary has won the season series vs the Jets so they would need 34 points to pass the Flames. So they would need a 17-12 record

Vancouver has 59 points in 49 games Vancouver leads 2-1 in the season series so if they beat the Flames they would need 33 points to pass us. So their 33 game record would have to be 17-15-1

Colorado has 55 points in 51 games Calgary leads the season series 1-0. If the Flames win the season series, the Avs will need 34 points to pass the Flames or 17-14-0, if the Flames lose the season series the Avs will require 33 points to pass the Flames or 16-14-1

Just for fun, if the Flames want to pass the Hawks. The Flames have lost the season series. to the Hawks. With the Hawks on track for 102 points. The Flames would need to get 103 points or a 21-9 record over the last 30 games.

Hopefully I did this right.

[nik-]

God, if we could have just taken 3-4 points in that 8 game losing streak we'd be in awesome shape right now.

[Joe Nieuwendyk]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I was thinking about this last night. If we believe that the playoff barrier is 94 points, based on last years playoff barrier. The following teams would need to basically have the following records to make the post season.

Calgary currently have 61 points with 30 games left.

They would need to gain 33 points which would be a 16-13-1 record. or any equivalent record

San Jose has 61 points with 30 games left, the Flames have won the season series against the Sharks. so to pass the Flames they would need 34 points or a 17-13 or equivalent record

Winnipeg has 61 points with 29 games left Calgary has won the season series vs the Jets so they would need 34 points to pass the Flames. So they would need a 17-12 record

Vancouver has 59 points in 49 games Vancouver leads 2-1 in the season series so if they beat the Flames they would need 33 points to pass us. So their 33 game record would have to be 17-15-1

Colorado has 55 points in 51 games Calgary leads the season series 1-0. If the Flames win the season series, the Avs will need 34 points to pass the Flames or 17-14-0, if the Flames lose the season series the Avs will require 33 points to pass the Flames or 16-14-1

Just for fun, if the Flames want to pass the Hawks. The Flames have lost the season series. to the Hawks. With the Hawks on track for 102 points. The Flames would need to get 103 points or a 21-9 record over the last 30 games.

Hopefully I did this right.

Vancouver would still need to get the 94 points for the tie breaker to be relevant so they would need 35 points

33 points for the Avs only gives them 88 points

[dsavillian]

3 games over .500 to hit 94 points? I like those odds.

How long until we can start counting magic numbers?

Actually, I should build a spreadsheet that lets you enter the minimum point total to make the playoffs and then calculates out the winning percentage needed by each team based on points earned and games remaining.

Hmm.

[foshizzle11]

this is way too exciting....I can't believe that we have a chance at the playoffs this year. I knew we would be better than last year but I didn't expect this.

dsavillian, having a spreadsheet to show what you mentioned would be sweet.

[Robbob]

You can do magic numbers now but probably waiting till the numbers are sub 20 before starting to follow them as there will be a ton of changes in that team that is chasing that final wild card. For the record, for us right now Colorado is 28.5. The rest of the teams at 54 points are 29 right now.

[dsavillian]

Originally Posted by Robbob

You can do magic numbers now but probably waiting till the numbers are sub 20 before starting to follow them as there will be a ton of changes in that team that is chasing that final wild card. For the record, for us right now Colorado is 28.5. The rest of the teams at 54 points are 29 right now.

Yeah, it's pretty dynamic with this much left in the season. I do like to calculate it with the 9th place team, even if that team is constantly changing.

[tkflames]

Thanks for this Captain. I was just looking at the schedules this morning. From first glance I think the Jets and us have some of the hardest schedules. It would be interesting to see an analysis of how often each of those teams still has to play against top teams. I don't think it will be easy for the flames to get to 95 points, but they have done nothing but surprise this season.

[Street Pharmacist]

There's no way we need even 94 points to make the playoffs anymore.

How you come up with what's needed depends on your perspective. What I mean is, if you're out of the playoffs, you have to surpass the expected total of the 8th place team. If you're currently in the playoffs, you simply have to stay ahead of the 9th place team. Colorado is on pace for 88.4 points. Unless they get on fire, that would mean Calgary could go a game or two under .500 and still make it. That's crazy

I don't think 95, 93 or even 92 is necessary. I think to be ahead of the 9th place team will take about 90 points

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

There's no way we need even 94 points to make the playoffs anymore.

How you come up with what's needed depends on your perspective. What I mean is, if you're out of the playoffs, you have to surpass the expected total of the 8th place team. If you're currently in the playoffs, you simply have to stay ahead of the 9th place team. Colorado is on pace for 88.4 points. Unless they get on fire, that would mean Calgary could go a game or two under .500 and still make it. That's crazy

I don't think 95, 93 or even 92 is necessary. I think to be ahead of the 9th place team will take about 90 points

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html


90 seems a little low, 92 gives us 65% or so according to this


sportclubstats isn't perfect but I have followed it the last few years and its been pretty accurate

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by dino7c

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html


90 seems a little low, 92 gives us 65% or so according to this


sportclubstats isn't perfect but I have followed it the last few years and its been pretty accurate

I'm not saying to aim for that, but 65% means it's still likely. 95 points is very likely to be too high

[YogiBerra]

Colorado just had Barrie go down with a hip flexor but he is only day to day for now, if he is out for a week or two that would pretty much torpedo their playoff hopes. The amount of games left for central teams that are in division means that one or two teams are going to have to play really well in those games. If they all win around half of them we will only need to win half our games from now on to get in the playoffs.

[smiggy77]

Originally Posted by dsavillian

3 games over .500 to hit 94 points? I like those odds.

How long until we can start counting magic numbers?

Actually, I should build a spreadsheet that lets you enter the minimum point total to make the playoffs and then calculates out the winning percentage needed by each team based on points earned and games remaining.

Hmm.

i like spreadsheets pretty please?

[Resolute 14]

One small note on your analysis, CC - the first tiebreaker is ROW, not head to head record. The good news for us is that we currently hold that tiebreaker against everybody else in the race, except Vancouver.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

All this talk of 96 points or 94 points is just a rough estimate remember. The barrier could be as high as 100 points this particular season, just for argument's sake. You never know how the season will shake out.

Personally, I like point percentage, because that gives you a better understanding of what the pace is currently at, and what will likely be required to be a playoff team.

For example, here are the point percentages of the 8 teams currently in the playoffs, and the percentage of the teams that are close.

1. Nashville-.720
2. Anaheim-.706
3. St. Louis-.700
4. Chicago-.627
5. Vancouver-.602
6. Calgary-.587
7. San Jose-.587
8. Winnipeg-.575
---------------------
9. Minnesota-.540
10. Dallas-.540
11. L.A.-.540
12. Colorado-.539

If teams play at their current paces, Winnipeg would take the 8th seed with 94 points. For any of those 4 teams chasing Winnipeg to get in, they would have to win at a 62.5% point percentage the rest of the way, so basically being as good as Chicago has so far this year over the next 32 games. Could one team catch fire and do it? Sure. Could Winnipeg, or a different team, fall out of contention with a record well below what they've done so far this year? Absolutely.

Just for example, for the Flames or Sharks to fall to 94 points, they would have to play at a 55% point pace, or basically being just a little better than Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota and L.A., OR, being just as good as the Florida Panthers have been this year. That would still give the Flames a good shot at the playoffs however, as one of those teams would have to play to the level of Chicago, as previously stated.

BUT, just to take out the aberrations, the Flames pace has been marred by an 8 game losing streak that has been unprecedented, even with the poor results of the last two seasons. The worst streak last year was 6 in a row, and 5 the year before that, our two worst seasons in a decade, one of them our worst season ever. For arguments sake, let's just look at our point percentage if you remove those 8 games from the season so far.

Current Games Played: 52
Current Points: 61
Current point%: .587

Hypothetical Games Played: 44
Hypothetical points: 60
Hypothetical Point%: .682

Ok, so the first thought is, "those games still count and shouldn't be ignored", and I agree, except that it should be considered an aberration because of how different our point percentages are with, and without that streak. Further to the point, I'd argue that the Flames this year are much closer to a team that is unlikely to go on a big losing streak, rather than be prone to them. Why? Because up to that point, the Flames had failed to lose 2 games in regulation all season long. Since then, they have only lost 3 in a row once, indicating that multiple losses in a row are an aberration, and not the norm for this team. That wasn't the case the last two seasons where there were several streaks of 3,4,5 game losing streaks.

For arguments sake, let's allow a 5 game losing streak (one better than our worst streak in our worst season ever) instead of 8.

Current Games Played: 52
Current Points: 61
Current Point%: .587

Hypothetical Games Played: 52
Hypothetical Points: 67
Hypothetical Point%: .644

Even allowing for a 5 game losing streak, or getting 3 more wins during the course of that streak, would give the Flames a point percentage around the level of the New York Islanders (.650) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (.647). Now look at the goal differentials (another reliable measure of team success) and you will see the Flames' +20 is right on par with both the Islanders (+17) and the Penguins (+18). The only team that would have a similar point% and a very dissimilar goal differential is the 'Hawks (+37) who have struggled to win close games this year, but have no trouble blowing teams out.

If you take that hypothetical .644 point%, which aligns well with their goal differential, you would assume that they would be close to that pace the rest of the way. Even if they can only manage a .600 point %, which would be below what you could expect but close to their current point percentage, they would end up with 97 points, pretty much guaranteeing a comfortable playoff spot. If they were closer to the hypothetical .644 it would be as much as 99 points, and I've never seen anyone miss the playoffs with that number. If you want to have fun, the earlier hypothetical of 0.682 would lead to 102 points, but I don't necessarily expect that to happen.

Basically, if this has become a tl/dr, I am arguing that even if you allow for a 5 game losing streak earlier this year, the Flames should be considered on par with teams like NYI, and PIT, and maybe just a step behind CHI. That's pretty heady company, and I have no doubts in my mind that the Flames will have a playoff spot come April. They could probably endure a couple more rough patches of 3 game losing streaks, or 1 point in 4 games, and still make the playoffs.

[dsavillian]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=181920467


Super simple, only spent 5 minutes on it. Just calculates winning percentages needed to reach the 97 point threshold. You can't edit the one that's there, but you can download a copy yourself and fiddle with the numbers.

[CKPThunder]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Vancouver has 59 points in 49 games Vancouver leads 2-1 in the season series so if they beat the Flames they would need 33 points to pass us. So their 33 game record would have to be 17-15-1

Colorado has 55 points in 51 games Calgary leads the season series 1-0. If the Flames win the season series, the Avs will need 34 points to pass the Flames or 17-14-0, if the Flames lose the season series the Avs will require 33 points to pass the Flames or 16-14-1

If Calgary is based on 94 points then Vancouver would need 36 points, not 33 points to get to 95 points. I guess if they win the series, they would only need 35 points to get to 94.

Colorado needs 40 points to get to 95, not 34. They need to go 20-11.

[AC]

As Darren Haynes mentioned yesterday:

NHL season is 119 days old. On 82 of those days including the last 18, the #Flames have woken up in a playoff spot. Did not see this coming.

Now 83/120 = 69% of the season so far we've been in a playoff spot!

[nik-]

lol 69

[dsavillian]

Originally Posted by dsavillian

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=181920467


Super simple, only spent 5 minutes on it. Just calculates winning percentages needed to reach the 97 point threshold. You can't edit the one that's there, but you can download a copy yourself and fiddle with the numbers.

Updated with a very basic magic number calculation