Two teams, one playoff spot

[Resolute 14]

...or why tomorrow night is the most important game of the season for the Flames to this point.

We've all gone back and forth on whether this team is capable of making the playoffs, and I think the next 12 games will definitively answer that question. We are entering a critical stretch against some very good teams - Pittsburgh, Chicago, Vancouver, LA x2, and teams that are really pressing themselves - Toronto, San Jose, New York, Dallas. Two against an Edmonton team that would love nothing more than to knock us down. And many of these difficult games are on the road.

The playoff format, however, adds some wrinkles to the situation. We are already seeing the playoff picture clarify, and when I look at the standings, I see two different battles between two teams for one spot each. Things are shaping up into a scenario where each division probably puts four teams into the playoffs. In the Central, a fading Jets team is battling a surging Wild team for their spot. Colorado or Dallas might pull themselves up into the battle, but they are already in deep holes.

In the Pacific, it is safe to say Vancouver and Anaheim will be in, and Edmonton and Arizona are done. The LA Kings are the LA Kings. They will be there in the end. That puts the battle for one spot between the Flames and the Sharks. We currently have a healthy six point lead with both teams having played 27 games. Unfortunately, while we have been beating Western teams this week, Boston and Philly have gone into San Jose and laid down for the Sharks.

Which makes tomorrow's contest critically important. An eight-point lead heading out on this road trip would be huge. It also puts us in the catbird seat in terms of a tiebreaker. A four point lead makes things a little dicey, especially since the Sharks get the Oilers back to back right after. After that, their schedule is no easier than ours, save for the fact that most of their December games are at home.

The Flames are defying the odds and making believers out of people. I'm still on the fence myself, but it is becoming easier and easier to accept that this squad really can make the post-season. It will be a dogfight right to the end, but if we still have a lead on the Sharks come January 1, we will definitely be in the drivers' seat.

[blender]

^^^ Was thinking this exact thing looking at the standings last night.

[Mattman]

Calgary is giving Vancouver and Anaheim a run for their money here as they are only 1 point ahead of the Flames. If anything I think it will be LA and San Jose battling for a spot.

[saillias]

Anaheim could be looked at as a team due to crash as well.

Negative GF/GA differential. Not scoring many goals. Getting lots of extra time wins.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Fair points above me, but also keep in mind that these are teams that know how to play an 82 game schedule. This is the first time in a long time where the Flames played really well at the beginning of the season. I am not saying we are not going to make the playoffs, I just don't want us thinking that we are a clear lock for a playoff spot.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Fair points above me, but also keep in mind that these are teams that know how to play an 82 game schedule. This is the first time in a long time where the Flames played really well at the beginning of the season. I am not saying we are not going to make the playoffs, I just don't want us thinking that we are a clear lock for a playoff spot.

Ever since the lockout the Flames have generally always played well at the beginning of the season, at least after October. Pattern always went stumble out of the gate in October, get really hot in November and December to put themselves in a playoff position, have an average January after the holidays, the completely fall off the rails in February and March. This group showed they know how to play in those last two months last season, if they can repeat that after such a strong start then they'll be golden

[Jay Random]

At this point, I don’t think any team in the Pacific is a lock to make the playoffs. Anaheim has a poor goal differential, as saillias points out, and Vancouver has had the benefit of eight cheap points from games against the Oilers. (They don’t play the Oilers again until the final game of the season, April 11.)

I agree that Edmonton is done, and Arizona will have to pull off a miracle to get in. That leaves five teams fighting for three to five spots. Not such bad odds.

(Yes, it could easily be five. At the moment, Calgary is ahead of every Central Division team, except Nashville. If the Flames do get knocked out of third place in the division, they are still in an excellent position against the Central teams for a wild-card spot. If they lose their spot because L.A. or San Jose happen to get hot, they will still have the advantage against the Central. If they lose their spot because they themselves stop winning, well, all bets are off.)

[scottish_flame]

We have already proved we can battle with the top teams in the west with wins against Anaheim, Chicago and Nashville at this point. What we have to keep doing is beating the teams that are outside the playoff spots. We can't afford to slip up to these teams because the teams around us in the league won't.

Also makes the losses to Columbus and Carolina look like bad ones because I feel like those were easy 4 points. If we won those we are sitting top of the west

It would also be nice if teams Lower than us could take a point or 2 against the top teams in the west.... That includes the oilers

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Ever since the lockout the Flames have generally always played well at the beginning of the season, at least after October. Pattern always went stumble out of the gate in October, get really hot in November and December to put themselves in a playoff position, have an average January after the holidays, the completely fall off the rails in February and March. This group showed they know how to play in those last two months last season, if they can repeat that after such a strong start then they'll be golden

Maybe we are watching different Flames. They have had horrendous starts in the past few years and get hot at the end of the year.

[Huntingwhale]

Exciting times for sure. The great thing about this playoff race compared to previous ones is that we are in full control of our destiny. During the Sutter and Keenan eras we often needed help from other teams to make the playoffs, which often resulted in us backing in. As of now, as long as we keeping winning 4 out of 7, we'll be in full control. We've only played the Canucks once I think and they've been able to rack up points against the Oilers unlike us. We seem to be cursed against them lately so I'm hoping we can steal a couple points from them and finally leap them. And as fun as it is watching the Oilers stumble, I'm hoping they start to win a bit more just to give us a bit of an extra cushion. It will all balance itself out in the end. But this is first time since 05/06 that I haven't been scoreboard watching praying for help from other teams. We are in control. And what a great spot to be in. Should have been competing for McJesus and instead we're head to head with the best in the league.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

At this point, I don’t think any team in the Pacific is a lock to make the playoffs. Anaheim has a poor goal differential, as saillias points out, and Vancouver has had the benefit of eight cheap points from games against the Oilers. (They don’t play the Oilers again until the final game of the season, April 11.)

No individual team is necessarily guaranteed to make the playoffs, I agree. But three teams from the Pacific will no matter what. My aim is to look at who we are most likely going to have to beat to keep our current playoff position. And of Anaheim, LA, San Jose and Vancouver, the Sharks are obviously in the weakest position. If we stay ahead of them, everything else will take care of itself.

[Imported_Aussie]

The way I see the playoff picture now, the Wild will take the Jets down - the question only remains, can they muster enough points to sneak in as the last wildcard? I think, no. At best, 4 central teams make it. Pacific more likely to send 5, though I think it will be 4 from each.


The Pacific will turn into a real dogfight. All of the teams in contention have question marks on them:

Vancouver: easy schedule to start? reliance on special teams play? (5:5 ratio close to 1.0)

Anaheim: goal differential, reliance on overtime, injuries on D?

Calgary: rookies to drop off? chemistry issues with players returning? sustainability of being outshot? weak PK to become an issue?

LA Kings: will they wake up? will road record be their downfall? weak PK to become an issue?

San Jose: will their big guns show up? are they better than their record? tough start, or just not good enough?

[getbak]

The way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised to see five teams make it from the Pacific and only Nashville, St Louis, and Chicago qualify from the Central.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

At this point, I don’t think any team in the Pacific is a lock to make the playoffs. Anaheim has a poor goal differential, as saillias points out, and Vancouver has had the benefit of eight cheap points from games against the Oilers. (They don’t play the Oilers again until the final game of the season, April 11.)

I agree that Edmonton is done, and Arizona will have to pull off a miracle to get in. That leaves five teams fighting for three to five spots. Not such bad odds.

(Yes, it could easily be five. At the moment, Calgary is ahead of every Central Division team, except Nashville. If the Flames do get knocked out of third place in the division, they are still in an excellent position against the Central teams for a wild-card spot. If they lose their spot because L.A. or San Jose happen to get hot, they will still have the advantage against the Central. If they lose their spot because they themselves stop winning, well, all bets are off.)

Why do you include Dallas as a team fighting for spots when you say Arizona is pretty much done? They have the same point totals

[Phanuthier]

I knew we were in the playoff thick of things, but holy crap are we really 1 pt away from 1st in the division? Anyways not a lot of breathing room from 9th either. I think the Peter Mahr "4 points out from Thanksgiving" breakoff eliminates Colorado, Dallas, Arizona and Edmonton from the playoffs - so of the rest of the conference, 2 are going to miss. Just because they are Winnipeg, I think they will be 1/2... the other is a tough call, but I'll go with SJ. I still think Minnisota is too good to miss.So I agree here..... the biggest game(s) of the season will be against Winnipeg and SJ.

[driveway]

This thread is about 30 games too early. At this point in the seasons 2 points is 2 points and opponents are relatively meaningless.

Division opponents are, like, 2.25 points. Worth paying attention to, but not worth getting overly worked up about.

[djsFlames]

Anaheim has been slipping a little recently. Vancouver and Calgary seem to be the strongest performers to date, based on their noticeable goal differentials. Says they're staying in games that they don't win, and a blowing out opposition when they play well. Also their 82 and 87 goals respectively are on another tier from the rest of the division.

LA will find a way to be there, I agree. We need to create a large gap between us and the Sharks. Tomorrow will go a long ways, with a 4 point game on the line.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by driveway

This thread is about 30 games too early. At this point in the seasons 2 points is 2 points and opponents are relatively meaningless.

Division opponents are, like, 2.25 points. Worth paying attention to, but not worth getting overly worked up about.

You kidding me? An october game vs a conference opponent can be the difference between playoffs or no playoffs, just as an april game can.

I consider any game versus an opponent you know will be battling head to head with you in the spring to be a 4 point game, no matter what point in the season.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

You kidding me? An october game vs a conference opponent can be the difference between playoffs or no playoffs, just as an april game can.

I consider any game versus an opponent you know will be battling head to head with you in the spring to be a 4 point game, no matter what point in the season.

Exactly. How important winning your late season games is is determined by how well you did at winning your early season games. Creating a large gap now relieves pressure later, which is why games like tomorrow are critical.

[Money Baer]

Originally Posted by driveway

This thread is about 30 games too early. At this point in the seasons 2 points is 2 points and opponents are relatively meaningless.

Division opponents are, like, 2.25 points. Worth paying attention to, but not worth getting overly worked up about.

This is Oiler mentality