[CP Story] The Calgary Ava-Leafs

[Bingo]

http://www.calgarypuck.com/2014/12/t...ary-ava-leafs/

[the2bears]

Great article.

[FBI]

Are there any other teams out there this season that are defying their corsi/fenwick like we are?

[Bingo]

Montreal is the best example as they are roughly 20th in advanced stats.

Other teams near the bottom in stats but in playoff spots are Toronto and the Rangers

[kermitology]

I think the thing that sticks out to me is the speed at which the Flames move and move the puck. They are relentless in terms of puck pursuit and I think often force teams to take a lot of shots whenever they can in the offensive zone.

Let's examine the Coyotes game in particular.

Coyotes had 3 shots in the first period; All from outside the circle or along the goal line.



The second period had the Flames playing a bit more on their heels as the Coyotes pushed back, but still not a lot of shots from prime scoring locations.



Then in the third, the Flames got back to their game and eliminated shots from prime scoring locations.



It's more than just purely looking at the advanced stats, it's putting them in context, something that Burke likes to talk about.

[troutman]

COL and TOR have no great d-men, and CGY has two.

[Bunk]

Excellent article. I agree with the questions posed at the end. The Flames seems to play a style that at times can be dominating (or at very least rarely leads to them being out-played), but does seem to translate favourably into these advanced stats.

[undercoverbrother]

What is the saying:

Not all things that can be counted count and............ something else I can't recall.

[Lucky23]

My opinion on the Flames low possession stats is the fact that our team is so fast, which allows them to create odd man rushes with a quick and effective transition game. With this quick transition to the opponents end and creating chances, there's no wonder why the flames possession stats are so low.

[Coach]

The thing that stands out most to me is effort. All these advanced stats are really trying to quantify how hard a player tries, which is difficult because players of the same skill level with have different efforts, and effort can vary game-to-game and shift-to-shift.

Someone said in the other stats thread that the stats take the assumption that everyone is trying their hardest on each shift (or at least, all are trying equally as hard). This obviously isn't the case, but you really can't quantify the effort level of a player, who gives more and how much more often. Even if you strapped heart-rate monitors to each player and tracked each shift you still wouldn't be able to get an accurate picture of this (different body types/different heart rates, etc..). And even if you could, there is no way to measure how much the effort of one player has on the rest of the team. Advance stats basically ignore these things like they don't matter but they do, huge. How the captain of a team carries himself and applies himself to the game affects everyone else. How the star player applies himself affects the whole team. How the coach carries himself both in winning and losing affects the whole team. None of these "emotional" traits can be seen in the stats.

The stats can say what they will, but there are certain things that you will never be able to track. And, in hockey, because of how the game is structured with changes on the fly and necessary contributions from the entire group of players, these emotional traits play a very important role in team success. Stats essentially ignore them because they have too.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Lucky23

My opinion on the Flames low possession stats is the fact that our team is so fast, which allows them to create odd man rushes with a quick and effective transition game. With this quick transition to the opponents end and creating chances, there's no wonder why the flames possession stats are so low.

It's not actually possession, it's a proxy for it... But it doesn't really matter if it equates to actual possession or not. The premise is basically if you are consistently being out shot, you are more likely to lose.
The problem isn't the numbers or the theory behind them - it makes good sense. The problem is it has become the only way (in many eyes with big mouths) to judge or quantify a team's play.
And that's just silly.

[JayP]

It should be noted that Calgary sees a decent bump upwards if Fenwick is used to track possession as opposed to Corsi. Considering the Flames utilize a system that relies on forcing shots to the outside and having defensemen block those easy shots, it makes a lot more sense to look at Fenwick than Corsi IMO.

The one good thing about Flames is that if you look at the rolling 10 game averages the Flames are definitely trending up in possession. It's highly unlikely they'll be a great possession team by the end of the year, but there is improvement happening there. With key possession guys like Backlund and Stajan coming back into the lineup at some point, along with the continued development of the young forwards it seems likely that the Flames will continue to trend upwards.

[SebC]

We are not inferior to the Oilers in PDO. We are vastly superior to the Oilers in PDO, and that's why we're ahead of them.

[stemit14]

Great article. Sums up how I think most of us feel about how the team is doing. I'm watching the games and it's rare these days for them to get outplayed. They've deserved to win these games over the last few weeks. And it does seem like the flames play a style that the stats can't really represent accurately in terms of how well they are playing. I think the flames out chance most teams on most nights in terms of quality scoring chances.

I know most of you watch the games as much as I do... How often have other teams had quality scoring chances against the flames off of rebounds? Honestly, I can't remember the last time that happened. I think it speaks to goaltending as well as smart team defence.

[Hemi-Cuda]

I hope the Flames ride their unsustainability all the way to the playoffs and all these bloggers that can't see past the new fancy stats have to eat a little crow

[EldrickOnIce]

Regarding PDO, Flames goaltending is only statistically average. Have they stole a few? Absolutely. That's what you need them to do.
Shooting % is more interesting. They are going to have to shoot more, or goals for per game will drop... unless they really are elite offensively. I'm expecting/hoping it meets somewhere in the middle.

[GioforPM]

In the last 10 games they've outshot the other team 5 times, been outshot 4 and tied one.

Their average is only a -2.2 shots, IIRC. I suspect if you take out the Chicago outlier (and let's say, to be fair, drop the Montreal loss as an example going the other way), the numbers get a lot closer.

[Mike F]

Until we get a true measure of actual blue chip scoring chances, all these numbers will ever suggest is a team shooting the puck more often than their opposition is the better team on the ice.

This is it, in a nutshell: Corsi may be a reliable stand-in for scoring chances, but it's not infallible, and what our eyes are telling us is that the Flames aren't getting out-chanced even when they're getting out-shot. Their system and player personnel may just result in them giving up lots of non-dangerous shot opportunities and holding on to pucks until they have prime scoring chances.

[Enoch Root]

Great article.

One question I would have is: sure, we all know about the Leafs and the Avs, but were there other teams - and if so, how many? - that also had similar stats but didn't regress?

We always here about the events that support our position/theory/prediction, but what about the events that didn't support it?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SebC

We are not inferior to the Oilers in PDO. We are vastly superior to the Oilers in PDO, and that's why we're ahead of them.

Very true ... clearly I meant PDO is currently a measure being used to prove the Flames are a complete fluke and unlikely to sustain what they're doing, all the while the Oilers are the opposite and destined to improve.