Impact of Injuries on Team Performace

[ricardodw]

I have been chipping in intuitively that the impact of the Flames getting back Wideman and Glencross will be a significant factor in keeping them from having as bad a year as last year.

There posters that expect that injuries will happen … if not to Glencross and Wideman to some other important Flames are going to be hurt.

Looking through the internet for lost player games, how the Flames measured up to the rest of the league in that category and how the teams at the bottom of the league where impacted by injuries.

I came across a great site that does this exactly

http://www.mangameslost.com/end-2013-2014-regular-season-man-games-lost-chip-tmitt-april-14-2014/

This site not only tracks the man-games lost by player and team it attempts to quantify the impact several ways.
The ones that I find most interesting uses the lost games along with the importance of the players lost (TOI and Cap hit)
In pure games lost the Flames had the 12th most:
rank team games lost
1 Pittsburgh 529
2 Detroit 421
3 Winnipeg 349
4 Anaheim 334
5 Buffalo 302
6 Vancouver 299
7 Edmonton 298
8 Carolina 297
9 Columbus 297
10 San Jose 297
11 Florida 294
12 Calgary 289
13 Montreal 273
14 Minnesota 267
15 New Jersey 261
16 New York Islanders 253
17 Toronto 230
18 Washington 223
19 Colorado 204
20 Philadelphia 204
21 Boston 198
22 Tampa Bay 188
23 Chicago 179
24 St. Louis 156
25 Nashville 150
26 Dallas 139
27 Phoenix 135
28 New York Rangers 122
29 Los Angeles 100
30 Ottawa 88

However in Cap dollars lost the Flames were 3 rd


rank team cap lost
1 Pittsburgh 13,738,577
2 Detroit 11,440,813
3 Calgary 9,615,896
4 San Jose 8,241,087
5 New Jersey 8,045,041
6 Minnesota 7,170,014
7 Winnipeg 7,070,775
8 Colorado 6,986,463
9 Vancouver 6,885,650
10 Toronto 6,669,390
11 New York Islanders 6,145,645
12 Tampa Bay 6,022,256
13 Carolina 5,737,703
14 Boston 5,671,281
15 Montreal 5,465,102
16 Washington 5,209,722
17 Nashville 4,928,699
18 Phoenix 4,739,787
19 Anaheim 4,701,138
20 Los Angeles 4,074,113
21 Columbus 3,986,240
22 Florida 3,968,150
23 Chicago 3,906,465
24 New York Rangers 3,628,435
25 Ottawa 3,043,709
26 Edmonton 2,611,169
27 St. Louis 2,032,622
28 Buffalo 1,794,451
29 Dallas 1,569,512
30 Philadelphia 1,130,488

And in TOI lost the Flames were 2nd:



rank team TMIT- skater
1 Pittsburgh 3636
2 Calgary 2652
3 Winnipeg 2636
4 Vancouver 2544
5 New Jersey 2292
6 Detroit 2153
7 San Jose 1898
8 Anaheim 1886
9 Montreal 1881
10 Boston 1842
11 Minnesota 1819
12 Colorado 1602
13 Phoenix 1549
14 Carolina 1530
15 Toronto 1466
16 Columbus 1383
17 Washington 1367
18 New York Islanders 1272
19 Florida 1208
20 New York Rangers 1139
21 Ottawa 1044
22 Edmonton 881
23 St. Louis 881
24 Los Angeles 826
25 Tampa Bay 815
26 Buffalo 662
27 Chicago 620
28 Dallas 435
29 Philadelphia 393
30 Nashville 322

[ricardodw]

The most important players lost by their TOI while they were playing were:

Rank NameNumber Team games TMIT_skater Cap lost

1 Paul Martin #7 Pittsburgh Penguins 42 491 2,560,976
2 Kris Letang #58 Pittsburgh Penguins 43 470 1,835,366
3 Dennis Wideman #6 Calgary Flames 35 445 2,240,854
4 Dennis Seidenberg #44 Boston Bruins 48 425 1,862,805
5 Steven Stamkos #91 Tampa Bay Lightning 45 411 4,115,854
6 Bryce Salvador #24 New Jersey Devils 41 406 1,583,334
7 Zach Bogosian #44 Winnipeg Jets 24 369 1,505,226
8 Curtis Glencross #20 Calgary Flames 44 359 1,368,293
9 Grant Clitsome #24 Winnipeg Jets 46 355 1,159,350
10 Rob Scuderi #4 Pittsburgh Penguins 29 355 1,193,598
11 Tyler Bozak #42 Toronto Maple Leafs 24 355 1,229,268
12 Mike Santorelli #25 Vancouver Canucks 32 355 214,634
13 Mark Giordano #5 Calgary Flames 18 354 882,439
14 Pascal Dupuis #9 Pittsburgh Penguins 43 353 1,920,732
15 Alexandre Burrows #14 Vancouver Canucks 33 351 1,810,976
16 Henrik Zetterberg #40 Detroit Red Wings 31 338 2,225,610
17 John Tavares #91 New York Islanders 22 336 1,475,610
18 Zbynek Michalek #4 Phoenix Coyotes 22 332 1,073,171
19 Ryane Clowe #29 New Jersey Devils 38 321 2,247,561
20 Tomas Hertl #48 San Jose Sharks 45 311 507,622
21 Evgeni Malkin #71 Pittsburgh Penguins 22 308 2,228,049
22 Jacob Trouba #8 Winnipeg Jets 17 302 185,376
23 Adam McQuaid #54 Boston Bruins 51 293 955,285
24 Ed Jovanovski #55 Florida Panthers 40 292 2,012,195
25 Brooks Laich #21 Washington Capitals 27 290 1,481,707
26 David Jones #54 Calgary Flames 32 289 1,560,976
27 Alexander Edler #23 Vancouver Canucks 16 286 975,610
28 Matt Calvert #11 Columbus Blue Jackets 26 286 313,110
29 PA Parenteau #15 Colorado Avalanche 25 284 1,219,512
30 Mikko Koivu #9 Minnesota Wild 17 282 1,399,390
31 Aleksander Barkov #16 Florida Panthers 25 281 282,012
32 Evander Kane #9 Winnipeg Jets 18 280 1,152,439
33 Lubomir Visnovsky #11 New York Islanders 46 276 2,664,634
34 Kris Russell #4 Calgary Flames 14 269 256,098
35 Tomas Kopecky #82 Florida Panthers 28 266 1,024,390
36 Alexei Emelin #74 Montreal Canadiens 19 263 463,415
37 John Erskine #4 Washington Capitals 37 260 885,518
38 Jared Spurgeon #46 Minnesota Wild 14 259 455,285
39 Loui Eriksson #21 Boston Bruins 21 258 1,088,415
40 Danny DeKeyser #65 Detroit Red Wings 15 257 169,207
41 Josh Gorges #26 Montreal Canadiens 15 256 713,415
42 Johan Franzen #93 Detroit Red Wings 22 256 1,060,975
43 Luca Sbisa #5 Anaheim Ducks 41 256 1,087,500
44 Logan Couture #39 San Jose Sharks 17 255 596,037
45 Stephen Weiss #90 Detroit Red Wings 55 253 3,226,829
46 Zach Parise #11 Minnesota Wild 15 250 1,378,987
47 Mike Cammalleri #13 Calgary Flames 16 244 1,170,732
48 Cam Fowler #4 Anaheim Ducks 12 244 585,366
49 Trevor Daley #6 Dallas Stars 14 242 563,415
50 Patrik Elias #26 New Jersey Devils 17 241 1,140,244
51 Mikael Granlund #64 Minnesota Wild 19 240 197,561
52 David Schlemko #6 Phoenix Coyotes 25 240 362,043
53 James Neal #18 Pittsburgh Penguins 18 239 1,097,561
54 Brian Strait #37 New York Islanders 23 237 217,378
55 Alexander Semin #28 Carolina Hurricanes 15 237 1,280,488
56 Brandon Prust #8 Montreal Canadiens 30 236 884,146
57 Jonathan Ericsson #52 Detroit Red Wings 19 236 753,049
58 Chris Kelly #23 Boston Bruins 23 235 841,463
59 Dave Bolland #63 Toronto Maple Leafs 58 235 2,387,195
60 Rick Nash #61 New York Rangers 17 229 1,617,073

In the top 60 list each team should have 2 players.

Teams with 6 important players missing: Pittsburgh, Calgary
5: Detroit
4: Winnipeg, Minnesota, Boston
3: Montreal, NJ, NYI, Vancouver

Teams with 1 important player missing: Colorado, Columbus, Dallas, Carolina, NYR, Tampa
Teams that had no significant players lost last year: Edmonton, Buffalo, Ottawa, St.L, Chicago, LA, Philadelphia, Nashville

[savardandjokinen]

Glenny is great right now

[ricardodw]

My analysis:

Injuries would appear to be a random luck sort of thing. Other than say bad ice at home, poor training, ageing injury prone team composition out of the top 60 important players there should be 2 per team.

The teams that were lucky enough to be missing few important players will have difficulty doing as well as last year.

Teams that were missing more than 2 significant players are likely to get a boost by having an average number of injuries.


I found it amazing that bottom dwellers Buffalo and Edmonton and Carolina had basically no injuries. They really sucked with basically no excuse.

Ottawa and Nashville will be contenders for better odds on the McDavid lottery if they get even a normal amount of important players injured.

Of the non-playoff teams it looks like Winnipeg and the Flames have a chance to make a big improvement if they manage to stay relatively healthy.

[edslunch]

Interesting that Buffalo and Edmonton lost more man games than the Flames but none were significant. Even their injured players were no good!

[edslunch]

Any correlation between the Flames injury situation and the trainer being let go?

[Poe969]

Do players with more GRIT get injured more often or less often?

[codynw]

Summary: Injuries to good players are bad.

[Caged Great]

It depends on if you have qualified depth to replace guys that go down. I remember a couple years ago we lost 3 of our top 6 or so forwards for a few weeks, and had a hard time winning because there wasn't anyone to step in that could competently replace them.

I'm sure that now if several guys get hurt, you could have Wotherspoon, Ortio, Sieloff, Granlund, Reinhart etc step in and look good out there.

[FBI]

Interesting stuff, thanks.

[djsFlames]

Edmonton clearly would've been a playoff team without their 298 man games lost.

I see now why they're not on the short list of many to contend for the lottery pick going into this season.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

It depends on if you have qualified depth to replace guys that go down. I remember a couple years ago we lost 3 of our top 6 or so forwards for a few weeks, and had a hard time winning because there wasn't anyone to step in that could competently replace them.

I'm sure that now if several guys get hurt, you could have Wotherspoon, Ortio, Sieloff, Granlund, Reinhart etc step in and look good out there.

last year we lost Glencross, Cammalleri, David Jones . Colborne, Monahan and Granlund and Rienhart and Knight stepped up and looked better than we expected. They did not look good enough to replace Glencross, Cammalleri and David Jones either in ice-time they could handle or performance.

That and having Butler take up the Gio and Wideman and Russell lost minutes is why were able to finish #26 and draft Bennett.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

last year we lost glencross, cammalleri, david jones . Colborne, monahan and granlund and rienhart and knight stepped up and looked better than we expected. They did not look good enough to replace glencross, cammalleri and david jones either in ice-time they could handle or performance.

That and having butler take up the gio and wideman and russell lost minutes is why were able to finish #26 and draft bennett.

#27

[PeteMoss]

Giordano's injury is what really killed the team. If you take out those games they would have been in the Nashville/Phoenix range.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Giordano's injury is what really killed the team. If you take out those games they would have been in the Nashville/Phoenix range.

Well it affected the team for sure, but not very much.

A healthy Glencross playing a full year producing like he did the previous three would have had a large impact up front, though.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Do players with more GRIT get injured more often or less often?

I know you're being a jerk here, but now I'm actually intrigued. I'm not a fan of his analysis at all, but here's a place it could be considered useful…possibly projecting man games lost due to style of play.

It should follow that a player with a higher GRIT index as per Ricardo's analysis should be injured more often because they put their body at risk more often. I challenge Ricardo to put together a massive data analysis project together and find whatever correlations he can between his GRIT index and being prone to injury. Might prove interesting.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Well it affected the team for sure, but not very much.

A healthy Glencross playing a full year producing like he did the previous three would have had a large impact up front, though.

I would actualy say it was the biggest loss... seriously Giordano last year without the injury probably would have been a Norris worthy campaign (Norris worthy but probably not Norris winning because... y'know East Coast & winning team bias).

The loss of Glencross, while felt, wasn't nearly as bad as losing Gio... have people forgotten how fugly Glencross looked at the start of last year? Sure he was still potting goals at a weird percentage defying rate but when he wasn't getting those bounces he looked pretty poor out there.

[PeteMoss]

Flames started the year at 4-3-2 with Giordano before he got hurt.

By the time he came back, they were 9-13-4.

So they went 5-10-2 without Gio and 30-30-3 with him. Nothing to write home about, but would be up around Vancouver/Carolina/Toronto.


The other guy who hurt was Kris Russell, the Flames were 3-10-1 without Russell when he was out long term.

[djsFlames]

I say that because Glencross missed much more time than Giordano, and our biggest issue last season was losing all those 1 goal games due to our lack of talent/offence. 25-30 goals from Glencross would've bought us a handful more wins in those very close games.

That's no slight on Giordano and his undeniably Norris worthy season (if it were played in full).

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Flames started the year at 4-3-2 with Giordano before he got hurt.

By the time he came back, they were 9-13-4.

So they went 5-10-2 without Gio and 30-30-3 with him. Nothing to write home about, but would be up around Vancouver/Carolina/Toronto.


The other guy who hurt was Kris Russell, the Flames were 3-10-1 without Russell when he was out long term.

Hey PeteMoss ... a post like this will generate a almost visceral response from a segment of CP.

I posted the Flames personal win % in this thread link

The immediate response of my attempt of correlating team success to individual contribution was:

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

There are no published statistics like this, because it is the dumbest statistical analysis I have ever actually heard proposed in a non-joking manner.

Thanked by Cheerio, hummdeedoo, New Era, Resolute 14, SvenTastic47, TorqueDog, V, Wastedyouth, wireframe..

I am looking for some valid hockey knowledgeable post from this group of experts.