The 2012 Near Global Disaster you never heard about

[Knut]

In July 2012 a Coronal Mass Ejection missed the earth by 1 week. This could have essentially wiped out power for most of the earth for months, if not years. Most Satellites put out of commsion, the internet going down and costs in the Trillions.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news...ul_superstorm/

Baker, along with colleagues from NASA and other universities, published a seminal study of the storm in the December 2013 issue of the journal Space Weather. Their paper, entitled "A major solar eruptive event in July 2012," describes how a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) tore through Earth orbit on July 23, 2012. Fortunately Earth wasn't there. Instead, the storm cloud hit the STEREO-A spacecraft.
"I have come away from our recent studies more convinced than ever that Earth and its inhabitants were incredibly fortunate that the 2012 eruption happened when it did," says Baker. "If the eruption had occurred only one week earlier, Earth would have been in the line of fire.

By extrapolating the frequency of ordinary storms to the extreme, he calculated the odds that a Carrington-class storm would hit Earth in the next ten years.

The answer: 12%.

Phil Plait provides info.. There is also a video from a Satellite that captured it.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astro...the_earth.html

On the ground things wouldn’t have been so hot either. There would have been widespread power outages. Large transformers would’ve been destroyed by the enormous current flowing through them induced by the storm. These transformers can take months to build and deploy; imagine a large portion of the United States without electricity for several months—especially in the staggeringly hot months of July and August, when the load on the power grid is already very high.

[SportsJunky]

I heard about it.

I think that I read that there is plenty of warning before it hits. Enough time for people to be aware and stay out of dangerous situations.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

I heard about it.

I think that I read that there is plenty of warning before it hits. Enough time for people to be aware and stay out of dangerous situations.

Only if we invest in the money to put satellites around the sun to detect this things and give warning.

Right now there would not be enough time to prepare.

Besides.. the warning time is at best hours. Not much time to stock up on firewood and non-perishables before power goes out.

[FlamesAddiction]

While something like that would undoubtedly be terrible for many reasons, from an academic perspective, I count help but be morbidly curious wonder how things would have played out if it did happen.

It would make for an interesting film script.

(I also heard about this.. wasn't it in the news at the time and most people played it off as nothing?)

[GoinAllTheWay]

That's very lucky. Didn't we get hit by something like this around the 1900's but it was no biggie as very little ran on electricity at the time.

I think we would see plenty of the best and worst humanity has to offer if we got run over by it these days.

[GoinAllTheWay]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It would make for an interesting film script.

They did a show just like that recently. American Blackout or something? It was the result of a terrorist attack but think it was a pretty plausible rundown of what would happen.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

While something like that would undoubtedly be terrible for many reasons, from an academic perspective, I count help but be morbidly curious wonder how things would have played out if it did happen.

It would make for an interesting film script.

(I also heard about this.. wasn't it in the news at the time and most people played it off as nothing?)

I think it was a recent review by NASA that determined just how close of a miss it was. I remember hearing about the CME at the time.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by GoinAllTheWay

That's very lucky. Didn't we get hit by something like this around the 1900's but it was no biggie as very little ran on electricity at the time.

I think we would see plenty of the best and worst humanity has to offer if we got run over by it these days.

I remember reading about that one, it caused telegraph machines to explode and injure some operators

[burn_this_city]

I think portions of the world would descend into chaos for a while. The actual event might only take months or years to repair but if anarchy broke out it could be decades. Might end up being one of those times humanity loses progress and falls backwards by an appreciable amount.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

I remember reading about that one, it caused telegraph machines to explode and injure some operators

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

Oddly enough.. It actually caused some Telegraph machines to run without power as it essentially gives the earth's crust an electric current.

I heard on the Skeptics Guide Podcast (from Phil Plait) that we can only produce about 100 Transformers/ year currently. If hundreds of thousands of them were blown out it would take a long time to get power back.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

I remember reading about that one, it caused telegraph machines to explode and injure some operators

Michael Bay's next project?

[wretched34]

Humanity terrifies me.
The fact that the reaction to an event like this is what would cause the most damage leaves me with little faith.
The Human Race survived the first 99% of it's existence without electricity and the technologies we have now, and the vast majority of that time, without the knowledge we have now. There is no question we could easily survive a few years without the internet or cell phones (hell, anyone born before the mid 90's has already lived this way). Yet, it would cause mass hysteria, and undoubtedly lead to all hell breaking loose.
Obviously there would be many other things effected, but as communities, they would be easy to overcome.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by wretched34

Humanity terrifies me.
The fact that the reaction to an event like this is what would cause the most damage leaves me with little faith.
The Human Race survived the first 99% of it's existence without electricity and the technologies we have now, and the vast majority of that time, without the knowledge we have now. There is no question we could easily survive a few years without the internet or cell phones (hell, anyone born before the mid 90's has already lived this way). Yet, it would cause mass hysteria, and undoubtedly lead to all hell breaking loose.
Obviously there would be many other things effected, but as communities, they would be easy to overcome.

It's not just electricity though. Think about all the jobs that would be lost. The hit on the economy would probably be enough to cause famine in even industrialized countries.

And think about the effect it would have on travel and distribution of goods. Without electricity, oil and gas isn't being delivered very efficiently either.

In a way though, I would love to see what type of innovations such a disaster would lead to.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by Hesla

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

Oddly enough.. It actually caused some Telegraph machines to run without power as it essentially gives the earth's crust an electric current.

I heard on the Skeptics Guide Podcast (from Phil Plait) that we can only produce about 100 Transformers/ year currently. If hundreds of thousands of them were blown out it would take a long time to get power back.

So we have 100s of thousands of transformers but can only produce 100 of them a year, so we've been building them for 1000s of years??

[photon]

Originally Posted by wretched34

There is no question we could easily survive a few years without the internet or cell phones (hell, anyone born before the mid 90's has already lived this way). Yet, it would cause mass hysteria, and undoubtedly lead to all hell breaking loose.
Obviously there would be many other things effected, but as communities, they would be easy to overcome.

A significant portion of the world's population would die off, the infrastructure and technology to grow enough food and to transport that food allows people to live in cities. Even if you assumed that most people had the necessary skills to provide for themselves. I sure don't.

Some humans would survive, but even if people didn't fall to mass hysteria it'd still be grim for a big #.

[burn_this_city]

Would it have affected the entire planet? Or just the side facing the sun?

[Knut]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Would it have affected the entire planet? Or just the side facing the sun?

From what i gather... the entire planet could be affected as it interacts with the earths magnetic field. Essentially it changes the magnetic field world wide. This would cause the earth to have a "charge" * That is what fries the transformers.

The larger the CME the more widespread.

* The earth always has a charge, it would just change it.

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by Hesla

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

Oddly enough.. It actually caused some Telegraph machines to run without power as it essentially gives the earth's crust an electric current.

I heard on the Skeptics Guide Podcast (from Phil Plait) that we can only produce about 100 Transformers/ year currently. If hundreds of thousands of them were blown out it would take a long time to get power back.

cool article and a threat that i was unaware of.
i hate to be that guy.....
but hundreds of thousands of transformers would have taken thousands of years to make at a rate of 100/year. even just one hundred thousand transformers would have taken a thousand years to build. something screwy there...

[Knut]

Originally Posted by handgroen

cool article and a threat that i was unaware of.
i hate to be that guy.....
but hundreds of thousands of transformers would have taken thousands of years to make at a rate of 100/year. even just one hundred thousand transformers would have taken a thousand years to build. something screwy there...

I am assuming that it would be a priority to manufacture them quicker. The current rate is 100/yr because that is all we need. You would likely see 100's a day pumped out all over the world to hasten the recovery.

[wretched34]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's not just electricity though. Think about all the jobs that would be lost. The hit on the economy would probably be enough to cause famine in even industrialized countries.

And think about the effect it would have on travel and distribution of goods. Without electricity, oil and gas isn't being delivered very efficiently either.

In a way though, I would lover to see what type of innovations such a disaster would lead to.

Originally Posted by photon

A significant portion of the world's population would die off, the infrastructure and technology to grow enough food and to transport that food allows people to live in cities. Even if you assumed that most people had the necessary skills to provide for themselves. I sure don't.

Some humans would survive, but even if people didn't fall to mass hysteria it'd still be grim for a big #.

Maybe I have just absolutely misunderstood the effect that this solar storm would have. From what I gathered, it'd be a flare, that would basically create a surge, and overload transformers, rendering them useless until they were repaired or replaced. But the Flare/Storm itself would only hit the earth briefly, and not continuously emit a surge for days/weeks/months on end.

Yes, while it may take some time to re-wire the planet to what it currently is, We have the technology to provide electricity in a short time frame to important infrastructure.
Gas plant needs to keep running? drag in the generators while the wind turbines are put in place.
Cities need refrigeration to store food, provide electricity to some of the big grocery stores/refrigeration warehouses. Yes, it changes day to day living, but as I said, as communities, I think it could be over come.

You mean I can't go on my annual vacation to the other side of the planet because there's no air travel, WHAT IS THIS THE 1920'S?! START A RIOT!!

Ground transportation could continue to function, as it did in the past without all of the technology we have now a days.

I think as a species, there is enough knowledge and brain power, to survive at a pretty high rate for a few years without being "on the grid" per-say. If not, I suppose the primates can take over.