Jaromir Jagr

[Ark2]

With his goal last night in OT, his career regular season goals is now at 690, which puts him into a tie at 9th place with Mario Lemieux. Just looking at his career makes you really wonder what could have been had there not been any lockout stoppages and had he not left to play in Russia for 3 seasons.

I decided to crunch the numbers and project how many he could have scored. In 94/95, he scored 32 goals in 48 games, which projects to 54 goals over a full season, giving him an additional 22 goals. During the 04/05 lockout, I looked at his goal totals the season before and the season after, which gave him an average of 42 goals. He also missed seasons 08/09, 09/10, and 10/11, playing in the KHL. During those seasons the number of goals he scored were 25, 22, and 19, respectively. It's difficult to gauge what he would have scored playing in the NHL as the KHL has a shorter season and is less skilled, however, since those numbers are roughly equivalent to what he scored when he returned to North America, I figure it's fair to assume he would have scored at approximately the same pace, so that would give him an additional 66 goals. Lastly, without the lockout shortened season last year, he was pro-rated to score an additional 13 goals. The above results in a extra 143 goals, which hypothetically would have brought his current total to 833, which would have easily put him in 2nd place all time, behind Gretzky with 894. At the rate he is currently going, you have to think that over the next season or two, he has at least another 30 goals in him. I just find it amazing to think that had things gone differently, he could have seriously challenged Gretzky's record.

[TurnedTheCorner]

Pretty sure there's at least three U's in his name somewhere.

[saillias]

Jarmoe Iginla is jealous!

[J epworth]

Originally Posted by TurnedTheCorner

Pretty sure there's at least three U's in his name somewhere.

*Jaroumour Jagour

[Buff]

Isn't he retiring after this year?

[MarchHare]

The above results in a extra 143 goals, which hypothetically would have brought his current total to 833, which would have easily put him in 2nd place all time, behind Gretzky with 894. At the rate he is currently going, you have to think that over the next season or two, he has at least another 30 goals in him. I just find it amazing to think that had things gone differently, he could have seriously challenged Gretzky's record.

There's a flaw in your logic: if you're pro-rating Jagr's goals based on games missed because of lockouts, you have to do the same for the players ahead of him. Gretzky, Hull, Gartner, Yzerman, and Lemieux would also have higher goal totals if not for '94 and/or '04 lockouts

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Buff

Isn't he retiring after this year?

He hinted towards it being his last year, which probably means we can expect another 3-4 seasons out of him.

[puckluck2]

On the flip side one could argue had he played in the NHL the years he missed he might not have had any gas left in the tank right now and would be retired.

[Keselke]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

There's a flaw in your logic: if you're pro-rating Jagr's goals based on games missed because of lockouts, you have to do the same for the players ahead of him. Gretzky, Hull, Gartner, Yzerman, and Lemieux would also have higher goal totals if not for '94 and/or '04 lockouts

Lawyered

[TurnedTheCorner]

Jagr made some comment about how, if Lemieux played as many games as Jagr has, Lemiuex would have 900 goals and 2500 points.

[Ruttiger]

Don't forget there was a work stoppage during Gretzky's career as well (2 if you count the 10 days in '92). Apples to apples.

But yes - amazing career regardless.

Edit - beaten to the punch.

[codynw]

What's crazy, is that Lemiex only played 915 games and Jagr (over 1400 games) only just caught up to him. Imagine how high Lemieux's stats would be if he had stayed healthy.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Best free agent acquistion this off season.

[TurnedTheCorner]

Originally Posted by codynw

What's crazy, is that Lemiex only played 915 games and Jagr (over 1400 games) only just caught up to him. Imagine how high Lemieux's stats would be if he had stayed healthy.

Originally Posted by TurnedTheCorner

Jagr made some comment about how, if Lemieux played as many games as Jagr has, Lemiuex would have 900 goals and 2500 points.

That was Jagr's thought, too.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by TurnedTheCorner

That was Jagr's thought, too.

Jagr only said it because he read my post.

[TurnedTheCorner]

CP has wide influence. It is known.

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

There's a flaw in your logic: if you're pro-rating Jagr's goals based on games missed because of lockouts, you have to do the same for the players ahead of him. Gretzky, Hull, Gartner, Yzerman, and Lemieux would also have higher goal totals if not for '94 and/or '04 lockouts

Good point, however, the lockouts wouldn't have effected these other players as much as you might think. The 94 lockout is the only lockout to effect Gretzky and Gartner. A full 94 season would have seen Gretzky score an additional 7 goals. Not sure about Gartner as he only played 10 games in 94, but the following season he managed only 12 goals, so one could argue that he would not have done much more with the extra 34 games.

Messier would have scored an extra 9 goals in 94. It's difficult to determine if he would have played the 04/05 season as he retired in January 2006, but he scored 18 goals in each of his last 2 seasons, so continuing that trend, he only would have ended up with an extra 27 goals.

Yzerman would have gotten an extra 8 goals in 94 and would have averaged 16 goals in 04/05, for a total of 24 extra goals. Hull would have scored an extra 20 goals in 94. After the 03/04 season, Hull was a free agent. It seems unlikely that Detroit would have extended him had there been a season in 04/05, and he went on to play 5 games with the Coyotes in 2006 before retiring. Being generous, I would estimate that he would have scored another 20 goals had there been no lockout, giving him a total of 40 goals.

Finally you have Lemieux, who could have had as many as 26 extra goals in 94 if he would have been able to stay healthy, but it is difficult to imagine that he would have scored much more during the 04/05 season given that he only managed a total of 36 games and 8 goals throughout 03/04 and 05/06.

I think it is fair to assume that no one was effected by the lockouts more than Jagr, and all things being equal, he still would have had more goals than the above (other than Gretzky) had the lockouts never occurred.

[albertGQ]

Forget best Czech of all time (yes, ahead of the Dominator), but IMO the best European of all time (yes, ahead of Lidstrom).

[albertGQ]

If there was no lockout in 94/95, Mario would have score 0 extra goals. He took that entire year off to rest his body.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by TurnedTheCorner

Jagr made some comment about how, if Lemieux played as many games as Jagr has, Lemiuex would have 900 goals and 2500 points.

Does he think he's Rob Schremp?