Arm-Chair GM: Three 1st round picks for Nate McKinnon

[macrov]

A friend brought up this scenario to me a few weeks ago. With Colorado likely drafting Seth Jones, suppose the possibility existing that Florida was willing to trade their 2nd overall pick to Calgary for Calgary's 6th, 20th, and 30th overall.

If you were the GM, would you pull the trigger for the purposes of drafting Nate McKinnon?

He said he would because:
(1) Calgary has a poor draft record so why not take a sure thing rather than 3 unsure things
(2) The only way to get a top franchise centre is through the draft. I mentioned Joe Thorton was acquired via trade. But I couldn't think of any other active players for which this was true.
(3) Calgary lacks true first line talent rather than 2nd line or 2nd pairing talent, which was a hole Nate McKinnon could fill.

I was on the fence. I think 3 first round picks is a great way to start what is likely to be a 3-5 year rebuild, because you get one almost ready player, plus get to draft a couple projects that would be hitting 21 and 22 as the flames start to emerge from the darkness. Also its a strong draft, so the hit probability is higher further down the draft. On the flip side, I think having 3 top 6 forwards in the line up next year all 25 or younger (Backlund, Baertchi, McKinnon), and 5 in the top 12 (Reinhart, Horak)...all who have top 6 potential would be amazing. And it would be a pit poetic - The club traded joe nieuwendyk for Iginla and Iginla in part for McKinnon. Its a bit like the story of the Phoenix.

[handgroen]

[mdubz]

If you look at it this way, it doesn't seem like a great deal to me, but there are other intangibles as well (Iggy being a UFA and most likely leaving anyways):

Iginla, Bouwmeester, 1st Pitt, 1st Stl, 1st Calgary

FOR

McKinnon, Cundari, Berra, Hanowski and Agostino

[Vinny01]

Our prospect depth is too shallow to make this move. Considering at least one of Monahan, Lindholm, Barkov, or Drouin will be available I say keep the picks. I am pissed enough that we should be picking in the top 3/4 but we went on that pointless run after we were mathematically eliminated

[Prufrock]

Only if we can somehow get Alfie.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by mdubz

If you look at it this way, it doesn't seem like a great deal to me, but there are other intangibles as well (Iggy being a UFA and most likely leaving anyways):

Iginla, Bouwmeester, 1st Pitt, 1st Stl, 1st Calgary

FOR

McKinnon, Cundari, Berra, Hanowski and Agostino

You can't include both the players and the picks they were traded for on the first line.

It would be:

Iginla, Bouwmeester, 1st Calgary

FOR

McKinnon, Cundari, Berra, Hanowski and Agostino

[Lego Man]

In a heart beat you do it.

How is this even up for discussion?

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

In a heart beat you do it.

How is this even up for discussion?

Cause that's what you do on a discussion forum.

[Rapidfire999]

I'd do it but I doubt Florida would.

[calgARI]

No chance Colorado or Florida make that trade. This has been discussed a decent amount here but hasn't gotten much traction because it is so extremely unlikely.

Colorado offered Tampa Bay 4 first round picks in 98 for 1st overall (Lecavalier) and didn't take it.

[Lego Man]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Cause that's what you do on a discussion forum.

I didn't mean that literally. I just meant that it was a no-brainer... from my point of view at least.

The only pick that you can be sure doesn't flop is the Flames 1st rd pick - that pick is an NHLer for certain. The other two picks could be anything from great NHL players to career AHL players, with it most likely ending up a third liner that could be attained in free agency or trades.

[Prufrock]

As much as I like the idea of drafting MacKinnon, I think this year I'd rather have the 3 picks than just one. I think we can (hopefully) get a few good pieces this year. I'm not optimistic about how well the Flames will do in the next few seasons, which, if they don't do well, opens up the possibility for getting Reinhart, Ekblad, McDavid in the coming years.

[atb]

Can't see Florida taking that risk, there's too much unknown what type of players you'd get with the Flames picks. MacKinnon is almost a guarantee to make the NHL with the potential to be a superstar. Florida would likely want either Baertschi or Brodie as replacement for one of the lower picks.

[Erick Estrada]

Florida and the Avalanche already are solid in prospects so they are better served getting quality over quantity here. Flames on the other hand could definately use MacKinnon but in the big picture given the depth in this draft quantity may be better for the Flames who are still trying to assemble a solid prospect pool.

[saillias]

If the Flames were to make this trade, Colorado would do the unlikely and draft MacKinnon, leaving Feaster in the awkward position of having to draft Jones, who would then inevitably becomes Jonesmeester. Also, those 3 picks would all become elite players.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Prufrock

As much as I like the idea of drafting MacKinnon, I think this year I'd rather have the 3 picks than just one. I think we can (hopefully) get a few good pieces this year. I'm not optimistic about how well the Flames will do in the next few seasons, which, if they don't do well, opens up the possibility for getting Reinhart, Ekblad, McDavid in the coming years.

Franchise centre. You make the trade if it's there.

[bubbsy]

i think i'd do it. if this guy is the next potential stamkos, giddy up. Of course you run the risk that he ends up being the next turris/brassard/ohter high pick center that doesn't become a franchise guy, but i just don't think he will be.

picking up an elite center is just that difficult, especially one that could be a franchise guy.

of course, if i was the GM of the panthers, i hang up the phone, as they're likely looking at it the same way. I'm sure they are drooling over years and years and years of mackinnon centering huberdeau.

[GreenLantern2814]

Also, the franchise's past draft history is irrelevant. Looking at things from an admittedly homer perspective, the last two drafts have been as good as anything in the last 20 years. How many times have previous regimes picked a player add good as Sven at 13?

This group seems to have an idea of how to draft.

[dammage79]

Personally I would pass on it. Maybe if it involved one of the other first round picks maybe. But that would be as far as I would go. In a deep first round like this year, it is a good starting point when trying to sell the idea that two first rounds pick are (in the realm of probability) better than one. But I don't think a team Like COL or FLA bite. Greedy buggers and their penchant for sucking hard on a fairly regular basis.

Organizationally though I am starting to believe that for the Flames, Monahan/Lindholm with Hartman/Zykov/Rychel and Mueller/Compher is better for us than just one MacKinnon.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Franchise centre. You make the trade if it's there.

Well the issue is we might still get a franchise centre at #6.

In order to answer your question two other questions must be answered.
#1. How big the drop-off is from MacKinnon to Monahan/Lindholm? And on that point we can only speculate because I doubt any of us have seen enough of all 3 guys to judge it with authority. Personally I've seen a lot of MacKinnon and barely any of the other two.
#2. How good are the two players we'll be likely to land at 21/22 and 28/29/30? Is there a chance they could be top two line players or top 3 defensemen? That's gonna have to be up to the scouts to answer, again we can only speculate.

So lets start the speculation! I really, really badly want MacKinnon. And yet trading all three 1st rounders isn't a fist pump, do it in an instant type of trade for me due to the depth of this draft. If this was a year where it is a top 3 and then a dramatic dropoff with a weak first round then yeah, you obviously do it. But if this year is anything like 2003 and there's a small chance we can get a Richards/Kesler/Getzlaf/Perry type of player with one of our other first rounders it would be hard to give that chance up. The player we take at #6 may be a 1st liner and then we'd have two more rolls of the dice at acquiring more talent.

So in short I'd love to trade up to get MacKinnon and have fantasized about how we could do it. But in the end I usually decide it'd be prohibitively expensive and that we probably won't.

I think it almost more likely that we deal up to #4 or #5 to take Barkov and spend considerably less assets doing so.