Desperation - A Cautionary Tale.

[Caged Great]

I wrote another article over on Fireside Chat.

Desperation. It is something that you always like seeing from your team when they are trailing in a game. It shows some resilience and determination, and that is one of the things that make fans cheer on their team the most. For the last few seasons, the Flames have rarely shown desperation in the face of adversity on the ice and have been more likely to show apathy when the game is on the line. We all know that they are trying to win and the lack of positive outcomes is not directly the problem, but rather it is a symptom of a larger issue. The fact of the matter is that the flames simply are not talented enough to win consistently.

With yesterday's attempt to sign Ryan O'Reilly by Jay Feaster, we are seeing some creativity from our GM and that can either be a good thing or a bad thing. The Flames offered O'Reilly a 2 year contract that sees him getting a 2.5 million signing bonus and a 1.0 million dollar salary followed by a raise up to 6.5 million dollars which balances out to a 2 year 10 million dollar contract. Had the Avalanche not matched, it would have seen the Flames 1st and 3rd round picks move to the Av's as compensation.

As an outsider, and someone that tries to approach every situation from an impartial standpoint, I hated this offer. Do not get me wrong, Ryan O'Reilly is a very capable second line center, basically a slightly better version of Daymond Langkow. A player like that is always good to have on your team, especially considering he's only 22 years old. The problem I have with the offer sheet is actually based off of three things.

The link to the full article is here

http://www.firesidechat.ca/2013/03/01/desperation/

[devo22]

well written mate. Couldn't agree more.

[Henry Fool]

Pretty nice. I agree that a realistic evaluation of how bad the lineup is right now is key, and in the O'Reilly thread I expressed the same worry that the management is overestimating the team's possibilities. They think they should be fighting for a playoff spot, but I've never been able to see that. Everything suggests otherwise and there's a good chance that after March we're looking at a realistic possibility for a top-5 pick.

[Erick Estrada]

Nice article. I didn't hate the offer to ROR but I agree that this team needs to be patient and embrace the inevitability of a major overhaul of the core group. Despite some decent free agent acquisitions the team is no better off which shows that the problems are deep and that the core of the team is deeply flawed. I imagine Hartley likely fully realizes this after the last few games and hopefully his buddy Jay is receptive and has the stones to go to ownership and tell them what needs to be done.

[blender]

Good write up. Have to agree except would mention that O Reilly's ceiling might be much higher than 50-60pts. Colorado also seems to think so.

[GirlySports]

Very well-written, just a couple of points I disagree with.

The goals against have been less the fault of the defense but the fault of a forwards being lazy in their owns zone and the Kipprusoff injury. What ROR brings is not only 50-60 points but also from what I've seen, he is excellent in his own zone as a center. None of the Flames know how to play center in their own zone so the slot always seems to be open.

And secondly, that Flames 1st round draft choice must not be so important because Colorado knew that if the Flames picked up ROR, they would be a playoff team and that draft pick would be no higher than 15th. ROR is that good and Colorado matched the offer in about 8 minutes.

Was a good try by Feaster.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Very well-written, just a couple of points I disagree with.

The goals against have been less the fault of the defense but the fault of a forwards being lazy in their owns zone and the Kipprusoff injury. What ROR brings is not only 50-60 points but also from what I've seen, he is excellent in his own zone as a center. None of the Flames know how to play center in their own zone so the slot always seems to be open.

And secondly, that Flames 1st round draft choice must not be so important because Colorado knew that if the Flames picked up ROR, they would be a playoff team and that draft pick would be no higher than 15th. ROR is that good and Colorado matched the offer in about 8 minutes.

Was a good try by Feaster.

I agree, I meant defense in terms of team defense. The forwards in their own zone are further away than they should be and the "center" has no clue what they are doing. If Kipper was in mid season form, we might be 2 or 3 points higher in the standings maybe which would help. At the start of the year though he wasn't really doing any better than Joey Macdonald is right now.

I definitely think that ROR would've helped immensely, but even with him I don't think this team would have quite enough to squeak in. It would be a lot closer though. Even in the 10-14 range though there are a couple of interesting center prospects like Alex Wennberg and Frederik Gauthier that would be still solid. Adding either of those guys or any of the other guys I listed in the article to say Filppula (just for sake of argument) would be better overall than just for ROR, even though he is rather good. I do applaud Feaster's creativity, I'm just a bit more concerned about what the follow up might be now that didn't work.

[AltaGuy]

I think ROR was just a precursor to what's going to happen anyway - we're going to sell off some players for some futures. I think Feaster would've gone hard after recouping that first rounder.

I like the (attempted) move, and don't see it as a reflection on this season's plans. O'Reilly would've been a nice piece going forward, and we'd have been lucky to get him.

But I think he was part of selling off our assets, not instead of it. So I disagree there.

[FlamesAddiction]

I love how everyone says it was a "ballsy" move, like that is an intrinsically good thing. Oiler fans said the same thing when they sent offersheets to Vanek and Penner, and they were called out on it too.

Patience is the key. A GM should be shrewd more often than ballsy. Not that risks shouldn't be taken ever, but it shouldn't be praised just for the fact that it took guts to make the decision. The road to GM failure is always paved with "ballsy" moves. Just ask Darryl Sutter.

I agree that the offer was bad for all the reasons you mention.

[bluloc]

Good read.

[greyshep]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I love how everyone says it was a "ballsy" move, like that is an intrinsically good thing. Oiler fans said the same thing when they sent offersheets to Vanek and Penner, and they were called out on it too.

Patience is the key. A GM should be shrewd more often than ballsy. Not that risks shouldn't be taken ever, but it shouldn't be praised just for the fact that it took guts to make the decision. The road to GM failure is always paved with "ballsy" moves. Just ask Darryl Sutter.

I agree that the offer was bad for all the reasons you mention.

I dont see the parallel that people are trying to make between the Oiler RFA offers and this one.

If memory serves, both of the Oiler offers were in the offseason prior to any real "holdout/impasse" being established between the team/targeted player. The Oilers were running rampant with these offers that offseason as I believe they then went after Penner (lol) after the Vanek attempt.

The Flames went after O'Reilly after the Avs were given ample amount of time to either sign or trade the player. As far as offer sheets are concerned, it was a pretty low controversy move.

I applaud Feaster for trying to move our rebuild calendar up by trying to acquire a young piece of the puzzle in this situation.

[DuffMan]

I find it funny that you said this

Ryan O'Reilly is a very capable second line center, basically a slightly better version of Daymond Langkow

.

And Brad May said this

ROR would immediately have been the Flames best player.

I think we're in trouble.

[atb]

The offer sheet was a nice thought and well structured, but I'm not sure I liked the gamble that the Flames will be picking outside the top 5. Was curious what the Oilers would have given up for Vanek if Buffalo hadn't matched, found this on HF:

2008: 12th overall (Tyler Myers)*
2009: 10th overall (Magnus Paajarvi)
2010: First overall (Taylor Hall)
2011: First overall ( Ryan Nugent-Hopkins)

Yikes. Granted the Flames probably aren't going to finish below Columbus or Florida, but there's a chance they could end up with the 3rd - 5th pick and possibly a player with a much higher upside than O'Reilly.

[Dienasty]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

I find it funny that you said this

.

And Brad May said this



I think we're in trouble.

However Ryan O'Reilly is solid/above average 1st line center, and an elite second line center.

I think he is extremely under rated and would have liked this signing. The line with O'Reilly on it would then be able to match up against every other teams 1st line, leaving the Iggy, Tanguay line open to face inferior competition and thus would not be pinned in there own zone all game.

Would have loved to see Tangs-Backlund-Iggy, Baertschi-O'Reilly-Cammalerri as the top two lines. Glencross-Stajan-Hudler as the third line and Stempniak traded for a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

[blankall]

I have to disagree with the crux of your argument:

Two, the calibre of the players in the top ten in the draft. Between McKinnon, Barkov, Lindholm and Monahan, there are a variety of center options that all look to be of a similar calibre of prospect that Seguin, Zibanejad, Huberdeau and Couturier all were in their draft years. The only difference between O’Reilly and those 4 centers is that you know what O’Reilly is. He’s a 50-65 point center that’s good defensively. The four listed above are more of a question mark, but they could easily become a 1st line center, at least as easily as O’Reilly could.

1) We don't know that O'Reilly is only a 50-65 point guy. He's already put up those points. He has the potential to develop into something better.

2) O'Reilly and Langkow are very different players. Langkow has never led the league in takeaway/giveaway differential. Langkow was undersized for a #1 centre. O'Reilly has Langkow's play making ability, but also has size, power, and defensive abilities that Langkow never had. Takaway/Giveaway differential is an important stat, and O'Reilly was in a class with Hossa, Datsyuk, Kane, etc..

3) You've lumped Seguin, Zibanejad, Huberdeau and Couturier all together. Prospects chosen this year in the 5-10 range will most certainly not be as good as Seguin and are unlikely to be as good as Huberdeau. What have Couturier and Zibanejad shown that makes them better than O'Reilly at this point?

With the current cap situation, this was a great year to make offer sheets. The risk wasn't in what we were giving up. The risk was in the salary. If O'Reilly did not progress forward, we would have been over paying for him. Even if he did just become a Langkow. Picking a Langkow with any thing less than a #3 overall is considered fantastic value. Players in the 5-10 range only have about a 50% chance of becomming full time NHLers, even in good years.

This potential move was also not comparable to the Phaneuf move. The Phaneuf move did not bring in a 22 year old about to enter his prime. Phaneuf also had more value than even a 5-10 pick.

Feaster was playing the odds here. He recognized that with an ridiculously inflated cap, the offer sheet compensation was much lower than normal. Therefore, the odds were heavily in his favour. Great move by Feaster. It was not a desperate move either. It was an extremely calculated one. He made the move February 28, knowing that the Avs would not be able to trade O'Reilly if they matched and knowing that the trade deadline next year would be earlier due to the Olympics. Feaster didn't win the deal here, but he forced a division rival to sign O'Reilly for way more money than they had planned. O'Reilly's contract also comes up at the same time that Stastny, Ladeskog, Duchene, and Varlamov's contracts come up. Expect similar shenanigans in the early summer of 2014.

The Flames management had been playing soft for too long. As a result draft picks and other GMs were walking all over us. We sould have Erixon in our lineup. We should have Phaneuf or a much better return in our lineup. Good on Feaster for taking it to the Avs.

[craig.caulks]

The real caution here is that if the Avs didn't match, ROR would have needed to pass through waivers to get to Calgary. Guess what that would have meant?


Sounds like someone owes a big thanks to Colorado.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by craig.caulks

The real caution here is that if the Avs didn't match, ROR would have needed to pass through waivers to get to Calgary. Guess what that would have meant?


Sounds like someone owes a big thanks to Colorado.

Not true. O'Reilly doesn't have to pass through waivers to start with the Avs, why would he to play with the Flames. It's no different a situation than any other player returning from Europe after the lockout.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by blankall

Not true. O'Reilly doesn't have to pass through waivers to start with the Avs, why would he to play with the Flames. It's no different a situation than any other player returning from Europe after the lockout.

Actually he would have, it would've been a disaster.

[nonflame]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I wrote another article over on Fireside Chat.



The link to the full article is here

http://www.firesidechat.ca/2013/03/01/desperation/

Read your full article. Very nice. The desperation may be carried out by the managment of the Flames, but the ownership (AKA Murray Edwards) dictates what they can do. I believe that if they were to stop meddling, Calgary may be able to stop doing the "Blockbuster" moves that have backfired for years