Alberta PC's way out front

[Slava]

A new poll in the Herald today breaks down as follows:

PCs: 53%
Wildrose: 16%
NDP: 13%
Liberals: 11%
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/al...622/story.html

Its a huge margin. A lot could change before the election this spring, but it sure looks like another PC majority and it could be a huge majority. Things are good in Alberta though. Unemployment isn't really a concern, and while people have concerns in general its tough for opposition parties to get any legitimate traction.

I'm definitely interested in hearing with CPers think as we head towards a provincial campaign.

[Ozy_Flame]

I'm not the least bit surprised. New leader, new wave of confidence, and ultimately a blue majority polling as per usual. I'd be more interested if the Wildrose was ahead TBQH.

[SebC]

I'm also not surprised whatsoever.

[Red Ice Player]

Just illustrates how much of a liability Ed Stelmach was. Staggering numbers though.

[Bunk]

Uh oh - this is going to go to Carter's head.

[grizz29]

Shocking.

[chummer]

Alison just got a bit better looking.

[First Lady]

And the day before there was this one:

Alberta’s Conservative majority remains solid, but the rookie Wildrose Alliance Party appears poised to take Official Opposition status in an upcoming spring vote, according to a poll commissioned by the National Post.

The four-year-old Wildrose won its first MLA in a 2009 byelection — and gained three more as members defected from the Progressive Conservatives. With 29% support (up from 23% in December), if Wildrose can maintain its popularity until the provincial election — expected to take place in April — it is projected to win 17 seats.

The Progressive Conservatives are projected to take 57 seats, down from a current 72.

Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff lays credit for Wildrose’s increase in popularity with leader Danielle Smith, a former Calgary Herald columnist who took the party leadership in October 2009. The 40-year-old leader enjoys 40% support among Albertans, compared with 39% for Premier Alison Redford.

As Alison Redford said "only one poll that matters".... on this I agree with her...

[Slava]

Well only one poll matters, but its an interesting switch in just about a years time. The Wildrose is basically battling for official opposition with the NDP and perhaps the Liberals at this point. A year ago it was more a question of whether they could win the whole thing.

If the PC's had 53% of the vote, depending on distribution, they could be north of 75 seats though? That would be astounding. It would also probably increase by one when Danielle Smith crosses over.

[Grimbl420]

Really, is anybody surprised by this.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well only one poll matters, but its an interesting switch in just about a years time. The Wildrose is basically battling for official opposition with the NDP and perhaps the Liberals at this point. A year ago it was more a question of whether they could win the whole thing.

From Wiki.



Liberals I'm afraid are only going one direction.

If the PC's had 53% of the vote, depending on distribution, they could be north of 75 seats though? That would be astounding. It would also probably increase by one when Danielle Smith crosses over.

What shall we wager on that?

[Slava]

What are we betting on? 75 seats or Danielle Smith moving to the PC's?

I think the Wildrose will be a non-entity if they aren't at least official opposition.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Slava

What are we betting on? 75 seats or Danielle Smith moving to the PC's?

I meant Danielle crossing. Though 75 seats might be worth betting on too. That would be a record would it not?

I think the Wildrose will be a non-entity if they aren't at least official opposition.

We've survived before.

[Slava]

Well the 75 would be enormous, and we'll have to see as it gets closer (too much could change). I do think that the Wildrose merges if they get a handful of seats though and are not official opposition. That would be a huge failure and I wonder if Smith could even survive as leader at that point?

[Makarov]

I'm torn. I hate one party rule in Alberta, but am optimistically intrigued by Redford.

[Russic]

This pleases me. I've really enjoyed Redford so far and would love to see what she'll do going forward. I hope these numbers are indicative of how things will turn out.

[Ashartus]

Originally Posted by Makarov

I'm torn. I hate one party rule in Alberta, but am optimistically intrigued by Redford.

I'm in the same boat. I'd like to see a change, but none of the alternatives really appeal to me and Redford seems to be at least somewhat in line with my own views.

[Jacks]

For the first time I won't be voting Conservative, there's never been an alternative before. It's worth waiting for an election call before putting too much weight in polls, pretty hard for the opposition to get any air time right now.

Edit:
That being said the Wildrose needs to get some decent candidates nominated, the Alliance candidate last election wasn't very appealing.

[Resolute 14]

According to Rob Anderson on Twitter, the National Post poll had Calgary at 38 PC, 35 WA. That leaves the Libs and NDP with half of what the Liberals had alone last election. Even with vote splitting, it is unlikely that the Liberals will retain more than 1-2 seats in Calgary. And hell, vote splitting with the NDP might wipe them out entirely.

I was calling Wildrose as the opposition even when they were peaking in the polls. It was too obvious they would fall back. But it seems that both incompetent Liberal leadership provincially, plus the decimation of the party at the federal level has resulted in the left being even worse off than before.

It would take a collossal disaster for there to be anything other than a PC government with a stronger (Wildrose) opposition than existed in 2008.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Edit:
That being said the Wildrose needs to get some decent candidates nominated, the Alliance candidate last election wasn't very appealing.

Was that me? LOL