Existing (US) home sales to be revised lower

[chemgear]

To be very clear, this is for the US only - but I'm kinda surprised that there would be such "double counting" in this day and age. At least to the extent for it to be "meaningful" - obviously a material number.


http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/13/real....htm?hpt=hp_c1


If you thought the U.S. housing market couldn't get much worse, think again.
Far fewer homes have been sold over the past five years than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.



NAR said it plans to downwardly revise sales of previously-owned homes going back to 2007 during the release of its next existing home sales report on Dec. 21.

While NAR hasn't revealed exactly how big the revision to home sales will be, the agency's chief economist Lawrence Yun said the decrease will be "meaningful."

[Knut]

Every bit of bad economic news comes from you. Are a subscriber to Bad Economy weekly or something ??

Just an observation, not a slight against you. I appreciate our posts on these matters.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Hesla

Every bit of bad economic news comes from you. Are a subscriber to Bad Economy weekly or something ??

Just an observation, not a slight against you. I appreciate our posts on these matters.

Its what he lives for. He hasn't posted any of the housing improvements in the US or Canada over the past months, or the fact thatthings are actually getting better down there in terms of confidence. Instead he picks this (almost meaningless) piece of data to start a thread on. I actually find it somewhat amusing personally. At least we have these things to talk about!

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Slava

Its what he lives for. He hasn't posted any of the housing improvements in the US or Canada over the past months, or the fact thatthings are actually getting better down there in terms of confidence. Instead he picks this (almost meaningless) piece of data to start a thread on. I actually find it somewhat amusing personally. At least we have these things to talk about!

Haha, been a bit more busy with work and Europe has been way more interesting lately. I was under the impression that housing hadn't really changed very much at all but can certainly look again.

To be honest, if the statistics for housing were to be revised upwards I would be just as confused and probably post. I like to look at the numbers and the fact that they may have been "off" so much for so long surprises me either way - shouldn't the data collection be better in this day and age?

[afc wimbledon]

..

[Northendzone]

I am in a pool where we guess the numbers of homes in the US that are sold - if they are going to revise old data this is obviously going to affect (effect) our previous results and the rules of our pool do not contemplate this sort of thing.

Damn we are going to have to figure out how to handle this situation. Anyone else in a similar situation?

[Superflyer]

OF all the threads I thought I would see the comment "Do you know how this affects my pool?" this was not it.

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

Damn we are going to have to figure out how to handle this situation. Anyone else in a similar situation?

That would be unlikely.

Cowperson

[THE SCUD]

Wow, OP i searched your history. You're just a chicken little aren't you? Since 2005 I have made hundreds of thousands buy and selling my homes (moving house every year or two). Even if I lost one or two hundred thousand I'd still be in the black.

While you've been chicken littling with the 'RENT DON'T BUY' crowd, I've made tidy gains that will offset any crash that happens.

I feel sorry for you.

[chemgear]

Don't worry about me, I own my home outright and I have some real estate on the side as mentioned in the forums before. I pointed it out back when the Calgary Real Estate thread went on a personal attack binge. (I'd dump the side investment but it's rather small and the partner is loathe to part with it which is fine with me at this stage given how immaterial it is.) The "oil price bonus" this year alone more than outstripped any equity in real estate I hold right now.

I don't mind being called chicken, heh. I enjoy the discussion and other points of view that people point out in the forums - lots of stuff that I never would have seen or learnt otherwise. Especially with their work experience as realtors, investors, etc. As I've always mentioned, I try not to give "advice" - what do I know, I'm not expert like many other people are here on the forums. I just like crunching the numbers - please feel free to buy or sell all the real estate as much or as little as you like.

Seriously, again I'm not an expert - don't bank on the stuff I see or link but please share your view, I would love to learn from it.


That being said, I have been screwed out of a win in our corporate fantasy football pool after a foxsports made a "revision" after the game! I demand a recount! (now that at least I can understand the revision - I guess we'll see in a few weeks how far off the NAR numbers have been; I am curious just from a statistical point of view.)

[THE SCUD]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Don't worry about me, I own my home outright and I have some real estate on the side as mentioned in the forums before. I pointed it out back when the Calgary Real Estate thread went on a personal attack binge. (I'd dump the side investment but it's rather small and the partner is loathe to part with it which is fine with me at this stage given how immaterial it is.) The "oil price bonus" this year alone more than outstripped any equity in real estate I hold right now.

I don't mind being called chicken, heh. I enjoy the discussion and other points of view that people point out in the forums - lots of stuff that I never would have seen or learnt otherwise. Especially with their work experience as realtors, investors, etc. As I've always mentioned, I try not to give "advice" - what do I know, I'm not expert like many other people are here on the forums. I just like crunching the numbers - please feel free to buy or sell all the real estate as much or as little as you like.

Seriously, again I'm not an expert - don't bank on the stuff I see or link but please share your view, I would love to learn from it.


That being said, I have been screwed out of a win in our corporate fantasy football pool after a foxsports made a "revision" after the game! I demand a recount! (now that at least I can understand the revision - I guess we'll see in a few weeks how far off the NAR numbers have been; I am curious just from a statistical point of view.)

Fair point. Didn't mean to come off as jackassish as I did.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by THE SCUD

Fair point. Didn't mean to come off as jackassish as I did.

No worries!

I too hope my posts are not poorly toned (english isn't my first language afterall) - apologies in advance if that is the case.


/grouphug! (just kidding!)

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by THE SCUD

I have made hundreds of thousands

You sound like a real 'CHAMPION'

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by THE SCUD

Fair point. Didn't mean to come off as jackassish as I did.

lol

[THE SCUD]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

You sound like a real 'CHAMPION'

haha, no it was just a point that, as a layman who moves not to make money but due to lifestyle changes (marriage, kids, etc), I have made good capital gains on selling my places. I am basically saying if you make money on the upswing, you can't get mad at losing a bit on the down swings. Didn't mean to come across like I am a $300K a year East Indian baller like CHAMPION

[missdpuck]

South Florida took some of the worst hits from the housing bust as you know. Construction is now up here, but not astronomically of course. Here in Palm Beach County people are moving to new homes in the western part of the county. However where I deliver mail (Delray Beach) used houses in the $150-325,000 range sell briskly in the section of town that is not too west but not near the beach (say about 4 miles) I am actually surprised that, in some subdivisions, if you wait more than a week or two to decide on a place you lose out. During the boom though it was sometimes a bidding war the same day. Delray is interesting in that it has come so far so fast. That is, if you consider a cute but somewhat generic gentrified downtown "progress".

Palm beach County is probably the most corrupt county in the state, especially when it comes to real estate. As a result of some of that corruption, Palm Beach County now has its first commercial timberland site on what was supposed to be land for a housing development. Many industry insiders say ithe pines will never be harvested because there is no mill nearby. The deal was a commissioner got paid under the table to change the zoning of the land to residential from agricultural. And he got caught, for that and many other similar deals.

If you are interested in pioneer books or history of that sort one of the best ones is about Florida. It's A Land Remembered by Patrick Smith patricksmithonline.com.

There is also a seemingly endless list of books about how Miamii (especially) was financed by moonshine and bad real estate deals...and of course cocaine.

Sorry for the rant, but I have such a love/hate relationship with this place. I love the nature , and the Everglades, but it is often heartbreaking to live in a place that has been so completely ruined and exploited just because people get tired of shoveling snow.

[Bill Bumface]

I'm just bitter because I'm likely about to give up and sell a rental at a decent loss this spring.

[puckluck]

Originally Posted by THE SCUD

haha, no it was just a point that, as a layman who moves not to make money but due to lifestyle changes (marriage, kids, etc), I have made good capital gains on selling my places. I am basically saying if you make money on the upswing, you can't get mad at losing a bit on the down swings. Didn't mean to come across like I am a $300K a year East Indian baller like CHAMPION

How is him being East Indian relevant?

Edit: oops I guess I won't be getting a reply anytime soon.

[freedogger]

This is a worthwhile topic. The BLS employment data is another example out of the US of stats that are continuously revised downward.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by freedogger

This is a worthwhile topic. The BLS employment data is another example out of the US of stats that are continuously revised downward.

Hmmm, their percentage difference seems not too terrible but certainly with negative revisions in the last little while. I am assuming that the data summary here is accurate though:

http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesregrevtec.htm

Probably take a while to go through the information/how it's compiled to really understand it better though - not something that I have done. But there are some interesting google hits about "the lack of upward revision bias."