martin's speech

[octothorp]

Anybody catch that? I was actually more interested in the Jays game, but I've been flipping back and forth. Interesting the PM's promise to call an election within 30 days of the Gomery inquiry's final report. Personally, next January is the earliest I want to have to go back to the polls, and I can't imagine that an election now would produce anything but another minority government. As much as the opposition parties would love an election right now, they're all reluctant to be the ones to force it.

I've gotta say, though, that all of this could have been delivered through the regular channels and hardly warranted a national address.

[FlamesAllTheWay]

I'd call it before the summertime starts. Do it during the summer and no one cares. Also, I think the initial shock of the testimonies has hit and, cause some of the voters in this country never cease to amaze me, waiting over half a year to call an election is a mistake. Half the people that care now wont anymore in January, and it'll give the Liberals time to spin some sort of story to save themselves. We're all just lucky the Liberals don't have a majority or all of this would be mute anyways.

As far as this 'event' was concerned, it was not neccessary at all. This is not a national crisis by any means, it is a crisis within the Liberal Party...

[kn]

If the Conservatives wait until January, most Canadians won't know what Gomery is...

If the Conservatives call one now, they're the biggest spenders this country has ever seen by having the gall to call an election... Liberals would never waste that kind of money and circumvent a public inquiry.

Either way, they can't win. Martin is such a nice guy. Did you see how sweet he was when he apologized? He was honest and genuinely hurt. I believe he's the right man for the job and we need someone like him to get to the bottom of this. PM for PM.

[FlamesAllTheWay]

Originally posted by kn@Apr 21 2005, 06:15 PM
If the Conservatives wait until January, most Canadians won't know what Gomery is...

If the Conservatives call one now, they're the biggest spenders this country has ever seen by having the gall to call an election... Liberals would never waste that kind of money and circumvent a public inquiry.

Either way, they can't win. Martin is such a nice guy. Did you see how sweet he was when he apologized? He was honest and genuinely hurt. I believe he's the right man for the job and we need someone like him to get to the bottom of this. PM for PM.

Well I do agree with your first point. However, if an election is called now it really is no ones fault but the Liberals. There the ones that started all this in the first place, or else our minority government would probably be chugging along for another year or so.

You can bet the Liberal spin machine will be making a big deal out of it though...

[Hakan]

The Conservatives may not have the parliamentary power to call the election. The NDP will likely vote with the government giving the balance of power to Parrish and Cadman. Parrish will obviously vote with the government and Cadman has stated that he would like to see the inquiry completed before parliament is dissolved.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally posted by Hakan@Apr 21 2005, 05:19 PM
The Conservatives may not have the parliamentary power to call the election. The NDP will likely vote with the government giving the balance of power to Parrish and Cadman. Parrish will obviously vote with the government and Cadman has stated that he would like to see the inquiry completed before parliament is dissolved.

Your making the assumption that the Liberal party will all toe the party line. From the comments coming from a number of MPs that doesn't sound like it would be the case at all. I would suspect that this tactic doesn't really work and we find ourselves, well 50% of ourselves at the polls in a month and a half.

[octothorp]

Originally posted by Hakan@Apr 21 2005, 05:19 PM
The Conservatives may not have the parliamentary power to call the election. The NDP will likely vote with the government giving the balance of power to Parrish and Cadman. Parrish will obviously vote with the government and Cadman has stated that he would like to see the inquiry completed before parliament is dissolved.

The thing is that if you look at the polls, the NDP have the most to gain in public support--some polls suggest that they're already up to 25%. So it's definitely in their best interests politically to have an election right now--same is true for the Bloc, too. On the other hand, they can try to partner with the government to push through some of their own agenda, which is what Layton's speech sounds like its leaning toward. It's a toss up as far as what's best for the NDP -- is it more important to use your power while you have it, or try to gain seats for the future? Hard to say what they'll do.

[Sammie]

The Liberals have to be taken down now. We can't afford to have a lame duck government handing out gifts to everyone using money taken from the taxpayer's pockets while, at the same time, they're destroying and covering up money trails and documents that could be damaging. Just look how busy they've been buttering up to the Canadian public over the last few days. The immigrant family announcement is an obvious attempt to appease the ethnic community.

[Hakan]

Originally posted by Mean Mr. Mustard+Apr 21 2005, 05:27 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Mean Mr. Mustard @ Apr 21 2005, 05:27 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Hakan@Apr 21 2005, 05:19 PM
The Conservatives may not have the parliamentary power to call the election. The NDP will likely vote with the government giving the balance of power to Parrish and Cadman. Parrish will obviously vote with the government and Cadman has stated that he would like to see the inquiry completed before parliament is dissolved.

Your making the assumption that the Liberal party will all toe the party line. From the comments coming from a number of MPs that doesn't sound like it would be the case at all. I would suspect that this tactic doesn't really work and we find ourselves, well 50% of ourselves at the polls in a month and a half. [/b][/quote]
There's no way Liberals will vote to bring down the government. That vote will barely need to get whipped. Think about it, they'd be voting for their own political future. It doesn't get much more self interested in that.

The NDP has stated that they will not bring down the government. It isn't in their interest to either. They'd rather wait until the inquiry is over all the while preparing their attack strategy. It's in their interest to get the Liberals to the lowest support possible in hopes of absorbing some of their support and being less vulnerable to strategic anti-conservative voting. The NDP have stagnated at 18 percent in the polls now while the lion share of liberal support has went to the Conservatives. They'd be best to ride it out and hope some of that support comes their way. Otherwise they wont have improved their seat totals.

So, no, the government isn't going to be brought down IMO.

[EddyBeers]

By my calculations, it would not matter if the NDP voted with the government. There are 308 seats in the house, but only 307 members, since the guy from Labrardor died. After the Liberal speaker is taken out, it means that there are 306 votes on a confidence motion. The Conservatives have 99 seats, the Bloc 54,combined that is 153. The conservatives just need one of Kilgour, Parrish or Cadman to vote with them, and they have enough to force an election. I think they could get Cadman quite easily. The NDP with 19 and the Liberals with 131 voting members need all three of the independents, and then naturally the speaker would vote with them to sustain the government.

[CrzyCanuck]

Election or no election it will again come down to one thing....Ontario.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

The only clear winners of a spring vote are the sovereigntists

A great article on the subject of how the vote might turn out - written before last night's speeches.