IBM Watson on Jeopardy Feb 14

[Young-Sneezy]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...439390834.html



Any other Jeopardy fans getting kinda jacked to see this? Predictions on if Watson can beat the Jeopardy champs?

I was thinking about how impressive this REALLY is, given the speed that theoretically you could google these questions as they came up (given you can type as fast as an actual computer) and get a relatively good guess...but the accuracy blows me away.

i still say ken jennings takes it...he is a beast

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Sweet. I love Jeopardy. Never forget Ken's run. 75 straight shows and the final jeopardy he missed to ruin his streak was so easy.

I didn't read the whole article but wouldn't the computer have a distinct advantage just because of it's ability to perfectly time its buzzer?

[Young-Sneezy]

i dont think so...i think its based on a bit of randomness of sorts. the buzzing occurs when alex finishes the final word in the clue..so its not always an exact moment, hense why you see them frantically hitting the button for a long time waiting for the question to "finish"



another really cool vid. it makes my suggestion of just searching for an answer ridiculous..i didnt really take into account the way the question is worded, slangs etc in the english language the computer has to know instantly

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Yeah but Ive seen jeopardy contestants talk about the fact tha a huge part of winning at jeopardy is timing with the buzzer because the contestants are so smart they usually know most of the answer.

Buzzer timing is a major part of winning. Presumably this machine will have impeccable timing. The microsecond the buzzers activate it should be able to ring in first every time. Assuming it has a suitable answer selected. Not sure how it knows if it has an answer worth ringin in for.

[Bob]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Yeah but Ive seen jeopardy contestants talk about the fact tha a huge part of winning at jeopardy is timing with the buzzer because the contestants are so smart they usually know most of the answer.

Buzzer timing is a major part of winning. Presumably this machine will have impeccable timing. The microsecond the buzzers activate it should be able to ring in first every time. Assuming it has a suitable answer selected. Not sure how it knows if it has an answer worth ringin in for.

During that Ultimate Championship tournament between Brad and Ken Jennings, Brad seemed to win largely because he was able to buzz in earlier than Ken again and again, and it looked like both of them knew most of the answers. I remember Jennings getting visibly frustrated when constantly beaten to the punch like that.

[FlamesPuck12]

Originally Posted by Young-Sneezy

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...439390834.html

Any other Jeopardy fans getting kinda jacked to see this? Predictions on if Watson can beat the Jeopardy champs?

I was thinking about how impressive this REALLY is, given the speed that theoretically you could google these questions as they came up (given you can type as fast as an actual computer) and get a relatively good guess...but the accuracy blows me away.

i still say ken jennings takes it...he is a beast

The computer isn't hooked up to the internet, so it can't just search the answer for the question on the web.

[FlamesPuck12]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Yeah but Ive seen jeopardy contestants talk about the fact tha a huge part of winning at jeopardy is timing with the buzzer because the contestants are so smart they usually know most of the answer.

Buzzer timing is a major part of winning. Presumably this machine will have impeccable timing. The microsecond the buzzers activate it should be able to ring in first every time. Assuming it has a suitable answer selected. Not sure how it knows if it has an answer worth ringin in for.

There was an article that I read which answered your question. I'll try to find it and link you if I can.

But what it said was, it doesn't risk any wrong answers and will only buzz in if it is confident with the answer (The monitor lights up green if its confident, and red if its not).

If Watson is losing, it will buzz in with answers its not very confident with and take more of a gamble.

[iggypop]

I've heard if you buzz early (while Trebek is still talking) you get locked out briefly, and therefore have to wait until the question is completely finished. Anyone know if this is true?

[Young-Sneezy]

Originally Posted by FlamesPuck12

The computer isn't hooked up to the internet, so it can't just search the answer for the question on the web.

i know, im just comparing it to the equivalent of simply searching..keeping in mind its some insane amount of processors and whatnot

mind-boggling to say the least

[worth]

Watson doesn't just buzz in for every question. He actually "thinks" about the answer and comes up with a probability of how correct he is. If he thinks he is 70% correct, he will buzz in. This takes 2.6 seconds running 3,000 CPU's.

If the threshold isn't high enough, for instance, he is only 40% sure of the correct answer, he will not buzz in.

He isn't just an encyclopedia where he can easily look up the answers to questions. Jeopardy is worded funny and the computer has to know how to combine an enitire sentence into a question and deduce what is the correct answer. It is far far far more complex than him just looking up the answer to a simple question.

This video explains a lot about Watson and how he works:



Oh and my prediction: Watson will win.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by iggypop

I've heard if you buzz early (while Trebek is still talking) you get locked out briefly, and therefore have to wait until the question is completely finished. Anyone know if this is true?

I think you get locked out for 1/2 a second...which is in eternity in Jeopardy time assuming you were buzzing in right before he finished.