Will the South finally Secede? 2011 SSIR Discussion

[Ducay]

Tomorrow (Jan 9, 2011) marks the Southern Sudanese independence referendum; where the largely black Christian/tribal south (where the oil is), is voting on whether or not to secede from the largely Arab & Islamic north.

The referendum is a result of the 2005 peace treaty between the Sudanese gov't and the Southern rebels.

From what I've read its all but a lock as long as enough people vote (need 60% turnout, so Calgary would be hooped).

[CaptainCrunch]

And 10 minutes after the vote, the ethnic cleansing starts.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

And 10 minutes after the vote, the ethnic cleansing starts.

Problem is that the South is such a mishmash of tribes and groups its virtually impossible for any one group to be able to cleanse another. Hence why they're always fighting amongst the tribes.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Problem is that the South is such a mishmash of tribes and groups its virtually impossible for any one group to be able to cleanse another. Hence why they're always fighting amongst the tribes.

I think I misspoke sorry, The Northern Muslim side will probably not accept the succession without some kind of violence.

And its not a statement that Muslims are evil or bad, it just seems to be the way things are on the continent. Especially considering the resource load down there.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I think I misspoke sorry, The Northern Muslim side will probably not accept the succession without some kind of violence.

And its not a statement that Muslims are evil or bad, it just seems to be the way things are on the continent. Especially considering the resource load down there.

The president of Sudan has said he'll accept the results of the referendum; so if the North really didn't want the South to separate, they'd simply not recognize the results and send forces down south; but then they'd be back in the civil war that has been going on for 50 years, I think the North is done fighting, hence why they're finally allowing a referendum.

That said, I can still see some any rebel types from the North not being too pleased losing oil royalties.

[longsuffering]

Originally Posted by Ducay

The president of Sudan has said he'll accept the results of the referendum; so if the North really didn't want the South to separate, they'd simply not recognize the results and send forces down south; but then they'd be back in the civil war that has been going on for 50 years, I think the North is done fighting, hence why they're finally allowing a referendum.

That said, I can still see some any rebel types from the North not being too pleased losing oil royalties.

AFAIK the oil production is in the North.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by longsuffering

AFAIK the oil production is in the North.

Don't have production figures, but Im 99% sure the South has a lot more reserves.

The vote is in full effect right now, looks like a large turnout thus far.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Don't have production figures, but Im 99% sure the South has a lot more reserves.

The vote is in full effect right now, looks like a large turnout thus far.

There was a graphic on the CBC the other night that said that 40% of the north's revenue is from oil and more than 90% of the south's revenue is from oil. No indication of the size of the reserves there, but it does suggest that there's a lot of oil in the south.

[Ryan Coke]

I was there in the mid 90's, and I am pretty certain the majority of oil reserves are in the south. The port is in the north, the primary conduit to export it. The government certainly wanted the revenue from it, which makes it surprising to me that they are going along with this.

[longsuffering]

I stand corrected.

[MolsonInBothHands]

Originally Posted by longsuffering

AFAIK the oil production is in the North.

Nope, I have worked there. The production is in the fields in the south, and pipe to Port of Sudan in the north east, and put on Chinese tankers.

[blankall]

From Wikipedia:

"Southern Sudan produces 85% of Sudanese oil output. The oil revenues according to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), are to be split equally for the duration of the agreement period. Oil revenues constitute more than 98% of the semi-autonomous government of Southern Sudan's budget"

From Amnesty International:

http://www.amnestyusa.org/business-a....do?id=1081006

The South produces 80% of all oil, and the central government in Khartoum gets 50% of all revunues from oil produced in the South.


If the above is true, I would be very very surprised if the South was granted sovereignty and allowed to take the oil with them. It would decrease Khartoum's revenue from oil by 2/3.

[Ducay]

I think the North will just make the tariffs on their pipe extra-superduper-crazy high to make up for the lost royalties.