Your Weekly Sports Select Ticket

[troutman]

First week of NFL -

Pro-Line - I took to win:

EDM (1.90), HAM (3.05), JKV (2.00), NYJ (1.80), CLE (3.45) and MIN (2.75)

$2 bet wins nearly $400.

http://www.wclc.com/sport_select/pro...game_list.html

[burn_baby_burn]

Ravens are starting a rookie QB. Cincy is paying 2.10 on the road vs that rookie QB.

[Pagal4321]

Hmmm a Clevland upset against Dallas? Ballllsy trout.

I think I'm gonna go with MIN, DEN, IND, PIT and CIN.

Not a sexy pot, but 21.44 payout per dollar aint bad.

[burn_baby_burn]

Never bet with your heart Troutman. It rarely works.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by burn_baby_burn

Never bet with your heart Troutman. It rarely works.

3.45 is a huge number for a home team, with playoff potential - the Dawg Pound on Sunday night - make DAL wear the blue unis - not a big stretch to see an upset there



Where can I get this hat?

[burn_baby_burn]

Originally Posted by troutman

3.45 is a huge number for a home team, with playoff potential - the Dawg Pound on Sunday night - make DAL wear the blue unis - not a big stretch to see an upset there

Maybe so, but I bet (ha,ha) you would think differently if you didn't follow the Browns.

[Sylvanfan]

Find all the games with 3.5 point spreads or less and play ties on Proline. I did that last year and had 3 times where $3 tickets won me like 75-95 bucks. Use the bookies to your advantage!

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Find all the games with 3.5 point spreads or less and play ties on Proline. I did that last year and had 3 times where $3 tickets won me like 75-95 bucks. Use the bookies to your advantage!

Great strategy.

Are ties more common in the NFL than the CFL? I would assume so.

[burn_baby_burn]

Originally Posted by troutman

Where can I get this hat?

Get this one instead. I'll buy you a beer if you wear it to the Dome.

http://www.clevelandbrownsteamshop.c...roductid=18015

[troutman]

That's cool!

I have an old hat from my UBC days with a big yellow thunderbird on top.

[troutman]

Dr. Z says week one is the best week for upsets:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...x.html?eref=T1

The "Formula":

On Sunday, a week before the main slate of games, I set my own price. This must be done quickly, without too much deep thought, without a clever eye toward what you figure the oddsmakers are going to come up with. Then the opening line comes out that night, later adjusted during the week. If the opening line, or in some cases the adjusted line, falls three or more points away from my own line, I turn around and go their way. This is what people find hard to understand. I go against my own pick, with the pros, away from the idiots, of which I am first in line. I don't fall into the trap.

Traps are the reason, I believe, why in most of the handicapping boxes you see in the newspaper, the consensus, is always under .500, the guessing average, the percentage you'd come up with if you had 10 old ladies doing it with hatpins. And the guys in the paper are supposed to be experts. But they fall into traps. Bookies don't make their real money on the vigorish, the vig, I firmly believe. They make it on traps.

I still think the system makes sense. It was 64 percent winners last year -- against the spread.

Peter King's Week one picks:

http://www.fannation.com/peter_king_...nge/peter_king

[burn_baby_burn]

I don't put a lot of faith in Peter King's picks. In one of my old pickum leagues they would show his picks as well as other panelists picks. I always had a better percentage than him. And I didn't come close to winning my league.

[SportsJunky]

One of ESPN's writers lists these two games as his upset specials:

Tampa Bay, a 3½-point 'dog, beats New Orleans on the road. Houston, a 6½-point pooch, beats Pittsburgh at Heinz Field.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by troutman

Great strategy.

Are ties more common in the NFL than the CFL? I would assume so.

I can't provide you with the exact data...but given the lower scoring of the game, the lack of rouges, and conceeded safety's ties do tend to happen a fair bit. Theres a lot of games too where a team gets up 17 points and than mails it in for the last 10 minutes and the blowout is suddenly a 3 point game.

All I know is, I've won a lot more money playing ties on proline than I ever have picking winners.

[rubecube]

Picked up a Pro Line and a Point Spread for tomorrow.

Pro-Line

CIN to WIN @ BAL (2.25)
DET to WIN @ ATL (2.00)
NYJ to WIN @ MIA (1.95)
TB TIE NO (2.95)
ARZ to WIN @ SF (2.00)

Point Spread

CIN -1.5 to WIN @ BAL
DET -2.5 to WIN @ ATL
NJY -2.5 to WIN @ MIA
PHI -7.5 to WIN vs. STL
PIT -6.5 to WIN vs. HOU
DAL -5.5 to WIN @ CLE

I'm really confident about the Jets and the Lions. I also have a $40 side bet on the Jets to cover this week.

[jschick88]

I picked up a proline ticket this morning. Here are my picks.

PHI to win over STL
PIT to win over HOU
NE to win over KC
NYJ to win over MIA
DAL to win over CLE
DET to win over ATL

$10 bet=$135.90

I think they are pretty safe bets.

[Gozer]

I see it more than just me that was fooled by the Leos.

[Sylvanfan]

My safe money ticket had
NE over KC
Dal over Cle
NO over TB
Pit over Hou
Phi over St.L

was looking good until....
SD over Car....D'OH!!!! Had it not been the Chargers who lost, I'd be some angry!

[Pagal4321]

So I take it NO ONE won this week? Whether it be SD, Indy or Jax screwing people over. (In my case it was the latter two)

[burn_baby_burn]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

My safe money ticket had
NE over KC
Dal over Cle
NO over TB
Pit over Hou
Phi over St.L

was looking good until....
SD over Car....D'OH!!!! Had it not been the Chargers who lost, I'd be some angry!

Not that I'm an expert. I used to pick the max amount of games for the big payout. The chances of hitting a 6 game parlay are few and far between. If I bet on Pro-line I go with a max of 3 games, maybe 4. I won $600 on a $20 bet last season. I havn't played since though, figured my luck had peaked.