Are you Smarter than Nate Silver-- US Election Prediction Thread

[GGG]

Put in your election predictions here. YOu can just do the swing states if you would like. Anything not predicted here will defer to Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight final map. Predictions are due at 9:00 Am MST Tuesday Nov 8

Swing States
------------------
Florida
Ohio
Penn
NC
Mich
Wisconsin
Virginia
Colorado
Nevada
Minn
NH
Iowa
Maine
Maine Districts
Nebraska 2nd

Senate Seats
-----------------
North Carolina
Missouri
NH
Indiana
Nevada
Penn
Florida
Wisconsin
Arizona

Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton
Trump
Other

[GGG]

My current list

I'm going with Clinton out performs national polls by two points due to ground game. She does not win NC due to all of the voter suppression efforts. This isn't quite enough to win Ohio or Arizona or Georgia but does get them Missouri in the senate so control the senate 51-49

Swing States
------------------
Florida - D
Ohio - R
Penn - D
NC - R
Mich - D
Wisconsin -D
Virginia -D
Colorado -D
Nevada -D
Minn -D
NH -D
Iowa -R
Maine + Districts - D
Nebraska 2nd - R


Senate Seats
-----------------
North Carolina - R
Missouri - D
NH - D
Indiana - R
Nevada - D
Penn - D
Florida - R
Wisconsin - D
Arizona - R

Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton. 50.5
Trump 45.5
Other 4

[calgarygeologist]

I am definitely not smarter than Nate but here is how I'll divide the states:

Swing States
------------------
Florida - R
Ohio - R
Penn - D
NC - D
Mich - R
Wisconsin - R
Virginia - D
Colorado - R
Wisconson - R
Nevada - D
Minn - R
NH - D
Iowa - R

Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 47%
Other - 6%

[Parallex]

I'm not even close to as smart as Nate Silver (to say nothing of smarter) but here are my predictions anyways...

Swing States
------------------
Florida - Clinton
Ohio - Trump
Penn - Clinton
NC - Clinton
Mich - Clinton
Wisconsin - Clinton
Virginia - Clinton
Colorado - Clinton
Nevada - Clinton
Minn - Clinton
NH - Clinton
Iowa - Trump

Senate Seats
-----------------
North Carolina - GOP
Missouri - DNC
NH - DNC
Indiana - GOP
Nevada - DNC
Penn - DNC
Florida - GOP
Wisconsin - DNC
Arizona - GOP

Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 45
Other - 6%


Additional Predictions: Clinton wins Arizona, Pot becomes legalized in California, Darrell Issa loses in California, GOP continues to control the HoR. Trump wins Texas... but by a relatively small margin (relative to how much the GOP candidate usually takes that state).

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

You have Wisconsin in there twice (second time spelled creatively). Also might want to add Maine statewide and Maine districts and remove Minnesota (which is pretty safe).

I'm tempted to go with the doomsday worst case scenario here so that if the world comes to an end tomorrow, at least I can gloat about predicting our collective downfall accurately.

[troutman]

323 to 215 for Clinton!

http://www.cnn.com/election/interact...l-college-map/

[takinghits]

Swing States
------------------
Florida- D
Ohio- D
Penn- R
NC- R
Mich- D
Wisconsin- R
Virginia- R
Colorado- D
Nevada- R
Minn- R
NH- D
Iowa- D

Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton +1%
Trump
Other

[Red Slinger]

Swing States
------------------
Florida- D
Ohio- R
Penn- D
NC- R
Mich- D
Wisconsin- D
Virginia- D
Colorado- D
Wisconson- listed twice
Nevada- D
Minn- D
NH- D
Iowa- D

I'm going to add Arizona- R as a swing state.


Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton- 48%
Trump- 42%
Johnson- 5%
Stein- 2%
Write-in/Spoiled ballot- 3%

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Also might want to add Maine statewide and Maine districts and remove Minnesota (which is pretty safe).

If you do that then you should also add Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (AKA Omaha) which likewise splits it's EC votes.

[Magnum PEI]

"Brexit x 5" happens. Hope I'm wrong.

Swing States
------------------
Florida TRUMP
Ohio TRUMP
Penn HILLARY
NC TRUMP
Mich HILLARY
Wisconsin HILLARY
Virginia HILLARY
Colorado TRUMP
Nevada TRUMP
NH TRUMP
Iowa TRUMP
Maine HILLARY
Maine Districts HILLARY/TRUMP
Nebraska 2nd TRUMP


Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton 47%
Trump 48%
Other 5%

[burn_this_city]

Surprised to see people awarding states to Trump he has like <20% chance of winning.

[burn_this_city]

Swing States
------------------
Florida D
Ohio R
Penn D
NC D
Mich D
Wisconsin D
Virginia D
Colorado D
Nevada D
Minn D
NH D
Iowa R
Maine D
Maine Districts D
Nebraska 2nd R

Senate Seats
-----------------
North Carolina R
Missouri R
NH D
Indiana R
Nevada D
Penn D
Florida R
Wisconsin D
Arizona R

Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton 48
Trump 45
Other 7

[KevanGuy]

Swing States
------------------
Florida - D
Ohio - R
Penn- D
NC - D
Mich - D
Wisconsin - D
Virginia - D
Colorado - D
Nevada - D
Minn - R
NH - D
Iowa - D
Maine - D

Senate Seats
-----------------
North Carolina - R
Missouri - D
NH - R
Indiana - R
Nevada - R
Penn - R
Florida - D
Wisconsin - D
Arizona - R

Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton +3
Trump

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Surprised to see people awarding states to Trump he has like <20% chance of winning.

I think most people are grossly underestimating how likely it is that a 20% chance event occurs. Trump is probably closer to 30% or so right now because the national margin of about 3 points is narrow enough that a few percentage point error could flip a lot of states.

If you rolled a die once and Trump became president if it was a 5 or a 6, how confident would you feel in that event not occuring?

As for predictions:

Swing States
------------------
Florida - R
Ohio - R
Penn - D
NC - R
Mich - D
Wisconsin - D
Virginia - D
Colorado - D
Nevada - D
Minn - D
NH - R
Iowa - D
Maine - D
Maine Districts - Split
Nebraska 2nd - R

Senate Seats - No idea so I'll leave this alone


Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 46%
Other - 7%

[Kjesse]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

If you rolled a die once and Trump became president if it was a 5 or a 6, how confident would you feel in that event not occuring?

I'm not pining for a statistical debate, however, my own understanding is while Trump would have 1/3 chance under your example, and I don't claim its invalid, you can't really compare months of polls to a simple die roll. If you assume he has a 1/3 chance, rolling a die does not account for the actual likelihood.

That being said, if I'm wrong and Trump does become president on a 5 or 6 on a die roll, that terrifies me.

The only prediction I'll make is Trump takes Florida, but loses the electoral vote. Those Floridians, they're nuts.

[Finger Cookin]

The way it seems to be heading is that Clinton needs to win 1 of 3 coin flips to avoid a fourth. She can win one of these swing states: Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and she's President IMO. If she loses all 3 of those coin flips, then she has to flip a weighted coin in New Hampshire. If that flip ends in her favor as it should, she still is President.

Closer than it should be. I'm still deeply disappointed by the people of Ohio and Iowa.

EDIT: So after reading the OP more closely, I guess that means I predict the following:

Swing States
------------------
Florida - Trump
Ohio - Trump
Penn - Clinton
NC - Clinton
Mich - Clinton
Wisconsin - Clinton
Virginia - Clinton
Colorado - Clinton
Nevada - Clinton
Minn - Clinton
NH - Clinton
Iowa - Trump
Maine - Clinton
Maine Districts - 1 each
Nebraska 2nd - Trump

[ben voyonsdonc]

I believe that Clinton outperforms expectations.

Swing States:
- FLA: Clinton
- NC: Clinton
- Wisconsin: Definitely Clinton
- New Hampshire: Definitely Clinton
- Ohio: Trump
- Michigan: Definitely Clinton
- Nevada: Clinton
- New Mexico: Clinton
- Colorado: Clinton
- Pennsylvania: Clinton

Final Vote tally:
Clinton 52%
Trump 43%
Johnson 3%
Stein: 2%

[lambeburger]

Predicting a 269-269 electoral college tie. Why such the bold claim you might ask? I just think that this election cycle has been so horrible, that is not done making us all suffer yet.

[Caged Great]

Swing States
------------------
Florida - D
Ohio - R
Penn - D
NC - D
Mich - D
Wisconsin - D
Virginia - D
Colorado - D
Nevada - D
Minn - D
NH - D
Iowa - R
Maine - D
Maine Districts - D
Nebraska 2nd - R
ARIZONA - D

Senate Seats
-----------------
North Carolina - D
Missouri - R
NH - D
Indiana - R
Nevada - D
Penn - D
Florida - R
Wisconsin - D
Arizona - R

Popular Vote
-----------------
Clinton - 49 %
Trump - 44 %
Other - 7 %

[Lanny_McDonald]

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