Oct 2015 Alberta Budget Discussion

[darklord700]

It'll shortly be announced by Joe Ceci today so I just wanted to start this thread to keep track of the discussions.

What we know know are:
No PST but other tax increases have not been ruled out
2% increase to corporate tax
Personal tax increase for taxable income over $125K
Very large deficit expected

Rest is to come today October 27 3:15 pm.

[c.t.ner]

My guess is we'll see a couple of interesting new things, but it'll actually be pretty bland and not shocking. (I'm starting to feel with Prentice's early election, this budget really has been beaten to death).

My additional guesses are:

Some additional spending not noted in the platform. (I.e. more post secondary and more health care spending)
No real stimulus spending on infrastructure besides what has already be committed (which I think is a big miss).
The increased personal tax rate is changed to include the 100k - 125k range and the other ranges go up a bit.
A couple of raises to Beer and Cigarette taxes.
This new Small Business Hiring Tax Credit.

[Slava]

I would just note that as of now the bloody NDP has cut the price of oil today as well!

Seriously though, they are inheriting a mess here because they're going to get blamed for the full deficit at this point and haven't even had a chance to screw things up yet. That said, if things turn economically and look pretty good 3-4 years from now they get the credit for that as well. Obviously that is what I hope for as an Albertan.

[GGG]

I guess I hope Alberta spends the next few years fixing the revenue side. Increases in taxes are required. Then we elect a right of centre party to clean up the expense side of the equation and tackle healthcare.

Right now we need new revenue to wean ourselves off of oil

[EldrickOnIce]

I don't think anyone, include the most ardent anti-NDP ers (like me), blame the NDP for this deficit.
All I am interested in is what they are doing moving forward. Really hoping any changes/increases in spending is stimulus not program, but I expect it won't be.

[mrkajz44]

My guesses from the tax world:

1) no change to corporate tax - the 2% raise that happened in July will stick
2) updated personal tax brackets to align with the federal top bracket. Top federal rate starts at 138,586 right now and is indexed. I think the NDP will line up their first "higher bracket" with this number

[puckedoff]

Do we have to wait or can we just start arguing now?

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

My guess is we'll see a couple of interesting new things, but it'll actually be pretty bland and not shocking. (I'm starting to feel with Prentice's early election, this budget really has been beaten to death).

My additional guesses are:

Some additional spending not noted in the platform. (I.e. more post secondary and more health care spending)
No real stimulus spending on infrastructure besides what has already be committed (which I think is a big miss).
The increased personal tax rate is changed to include the 100k - 125k range and the other ranges go up a bit.
A couple of raises to Beer and Cigarette taxes.
This new Small Business Hiring Tax Credit.

I'll be shocked if there isn't increased infrastructure spending. They didn't bring David Dodge in to sell the status quo. Though how much is announced today I don't know.

Good call on the small business hiring credit. They just about announced that a month ago but held off. I think there will be innovation/diversification/small biz spending too. Though most of that will be policy not budget driven (I think)

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

My guess is we'll see a couple of interesting new things, but it'll actually be pretty bland and not shocking. (I'm starting to feel with Prentice's early election, this budget really has been beaten to death).

My additional guesses are:

Some additional spending not noted in the platform. (I.e. more post secondary and more health care spending)
No real stimulus spending on infrastructure besides what has already be committed (which I think is a big miss).
The increased personal tax rate is changed to include the 100k - 125k range and the other ranges go up a bit.
A couple of raises to Beer and Cigarette taxes.
This new Small Business Hiring Tax Credit.

If they do anything with the personal tax rate other than what they campaigned on, they have to be complete morons. The 100-125K range hits an awful lot of Albertans compared to other Provinces. That will not go over well at all.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

I'll be shocked if there isn't increased infrastructure spending. They didn't bring David Dodge in to sell the status quo. Though how much is announced today I don't know.

Good call on the small business hiring credit. They just about announced that a month ago but held off. I think there will be innovation/diversification/small biz spending too. Though most of that will be policy not budget driven (I think)

I think there will be some infrastructure spending, but I don't think it'll be anything new. Essentially just a continuation of what is already on the books (Ring Road, Foothills Hospital, Schools, etc.,). My guess is that they will say they have new infrastructure stimulus spending, but it will just be to finish off already existing projects or promises. My guess will be that the "stimulus spending" will be fore more teachers and health care workers, rather than a series of new big picture infrastructure projects. Which I don't think is a good use of stimulus money (as it's not a short term shot to the arm of the economy).

The small business tax credit will be interesting, but from what has been mentioned about it even as a small business owner it'll be of no use to me.

[troutman]

http://www.albertacanada.com/busines...nal-taxes.aspx

The overall tax burden on individual Albertans is by far the lowest of any province in Canada. These rates come from many sources – a low flat personal tax rate of 10%, including the highest basic and spousal exemptions in the country, no general sales tax, among the lowest gasoline tax rates and property taxes.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politi...adas-tax-haven

Alberta presents the oddest spectacle — a roaring economy that generates enormous wealth and growth, run by a cash-strapped government that can’t keep up with the growth without borrowing huge amounts of cash.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/11...n_4350771.html

Since the tax cuts administered under President George W. Bush expired in January of this year, the U.S. federal marginal income tax rate has risen from 35 per cent to 39.6 per cent, effectively making it higher than when you combine Canada's highest federal rate of 29 per cent and Alberta's flat provincial tax rate of 10 per cent.

That move leaves Alberta as the North American jurisdiction with the lowest tax rate for the super rich in the continent.

http://business.financialpost.com/pe...ew-tax-reality

Alberta’s new NDP government introduced Bill 2, “An Act to Restore Fairness to Public Revenue,” which received its third reading this week. As promised in its throne speech, the government has announced progressive, graduated tax rates for Albertans whose taxable income exceeds $125,000

Specifically, those with income over $125,000, but under $150,000 will pay 12 per cent provincial tax; those making over $150,000, but less than $200,000 will pay 13 per cent; those making over $200,000, but less than $300,000 will pay 14 per cent; and those earning over $300,000 will pay 15%, resulting in a new, top combined federal-Alberta marginal rate of 44 per cent. These brackets will be indexed starting 2017.

Alberta’s top marginal rate will now be the same as in Saskatchewan and Yukon, higher than in British Columbia, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, but still lower than in the other provinces.

According to calculations prepared by PwC Canada, an Albertan making $200,000 will pay an extra $500 in 2015 and an extra $2,000 starting next year, while someone making $600,000 would pay an additional $5,250 this year and $21,000 in the future.

[polak]

God I wish someone would post those numbers on my FB so all the anti-NDP ####s would shut up.

[Slava]

Wow, they're borrowing for operations, not just infrastructure. That's bad news for sure. Debt could be $47B by the end of their term.

[chedder]

First time watching this sort of thing and holy $%# is that table banging annoying. I think I'll have to stop and just wait for the Coles notes.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Slava

Wow, they're borrowing for operations, not just infrastructure. That's bad news for sure. Debt could be $47B by the end of their term.

Did they also say the contingency fund would be depleted by 2017? Was that planned for in the Prentice budget, too? If not...yikes.

[darklord700]

Ceci cannot sound more unconvincing as a finance minister. He has trouble just reading from the script.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Did they also say the contingency fund would be depleted by 2017? Was that planned for in the Prentice budget, too? If not...yikes.

Yup. This is a train wreck. No wonder they waited until after the federal election. Just a complete mess. It's like they're doing this with no one who has budgeted before, ever.

[Locke]

I guess the 1%ers will just change their Province of Residence.

[HotHotHeat]

Originally Posted by troutman

[/I]According to calculations prepared by PwC Canada, an Albertan making $200,000 will pay an extra $500 in 2015 and an extra $2,000 starting next year, while someone making $600,000 would pay an additional $5,250 this year and $21,000 in the future.

Thoughts and prayers CP membership.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Slava

Yup. This is a train wreck. No wonder they waited until after the federal election. Just a complete mess. It's like they're doing this with no one who has budgeted before, ever.

It's nice that they want to follow the Lougheed/Norwegian model for managing natural resources, but the PCs let that train leave the station a long time ago.