View Poll Results: Where do 2016 house prices finish?
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Unchanged or positive growth
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3 |
4.17% |
Down 1% to 4%
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11 |
15.28% |
Down 4% to 7%
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25 |
34.72% |
Down 7% to 12%
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22 |
30.56% |
Down more than 12%
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11 |
15.28% |
01-13-2016, 06:23 PM
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#1
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Realtor®
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
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What happens to Calgary housing prices in 2016? V2.0
CREB Forecast has pricesdropping 3.44% with apartment style condos being hit the hardest. A thread was created for 2015's projection with 54% of people believing prices would drop more than 5% while while 42% expected prices to be down 5% or less. There were a few posters who felt 2015 was in store for a 20+% correction
Prices eventually were down less than 5% which takes us to this years CP forecast. I personally ignore forecasts as they are next to impossible to be accurate with in our market. We are all capable of coming up with our own forecast. Last years CREB forecast had a 1.5% growth estimate.
Where do we see 2016? Obviously there are so many factors and when a client or potential client asks me, I tell them that their guess is as good as mine. With that said, I predict prices dropping upwards of 7% in the first 2 quarters of 2016 with some stability coming in Q3 and Q4 to finish the year down 4.5%.
I was extremely close on my 2015 prediction initially believing a 5% decrease which I changed to 3%.
What was your prediction last year and what do you predict this year?
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01-14-2016, 01:14 AM
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#2
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 555 Saddledome Rise SE
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Different year, same answer. Though it looks like my stabilized $75 price ain't happening. Down 4%-7%. But as a selfish renter I hope for more!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frequitude
As someone currently with no equity in the housing market, next year should be a fun ride of research, driving around neighbourhoods and data crunching. So I'm biasedly hoping for a >5% decline (sorry guys).
As someone in O&G, I'm bearish. Yes, things will be ok, but we're not seeing $100 oil for a while in my opinion. I belive medium term prices will stabilize around $75 which is the supply cost for the 90-95 millionth barrel (global demand). The only thing getting us to $100 is a war or a major disruption.
The biggest losers in this price war are not the shale guys...they can ramp drilling up and down relatively quickly to respond to price. It is the major projects. The events of the last few months bring volatility and risk to their future cash flows, so any capital is going to command a higher risk premium to invest. Translation - higher breakeven oil prices...oil prices that as I said above I don't think we'll see for a while. Its the deep offshore, and most important for us, greenfield oil sands projects that will get hurt.
Thankfully there are lots of aspects to the O&G industry in this city not related to the large projects, but it is sizeable enough that I fear for the well being of the overall O&G labor pool in this province over the next few years.
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01-14-2016, 08:43 AM
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#3
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First Line Centre
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I'm more bearish this year than last. Hope I'm wrong.
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01-14-2016, 09:14 AM
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#4
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Powerplay Quarterback
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So what's the criteria? Comparing which month of 16 to which month of 17?
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01-14-2016, 12:28 PM
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#5
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Franchise Player
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I didn't think things were going to be too bad last year (I said down 1.5%) and this year I am much more pessimistic. Economically and employment wise this year should be pretty ugly. 6% to 7% decrease seems reasonable to be.
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01-14-2016, 01:15 PM
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#6
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Powerplay Quarterback
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I'll go for 5%, but I'm not from Calgary so that's just a guess.
He's a random question for people that follow the Calgary Real Estate market, what you say a house like this would go for in Calgary?
http://propertyguys.com/property/index/id/82604
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01-14-2016, 01:37 PM
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#7
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Realtor®
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pseudoreality
I'll go for 5%, but I'm not from Calgary so that's just a guess.
He's a random question for people that follow the Calgary Real Estate market, what you say a house like this would go for in Calgary?
http://propertyguys.com/property/index/id/82604
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Impossible to say as the location of the home would swing the price close to a million. This could be a million dollar home or a 2 million dollar home depending on its location within Calgary.
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01-16-2016, 02:09 PM
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#8
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Self Imposed Exile
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
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Realtor1 - I will give it to you and CREB with your 2015 predictors being a lot more accurate then many, including myself.
However, I am still bearish for 2016, more so than you or your board.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Kavvy For This Useful Post:
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01-17-2016, 10:35 AM
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#9
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Calgary
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I'm expecting starter houses (<500k) to barely move, but (hoping) houses in the 900k range right now to drop at least 10%.
That would make my planned upgrading to a bigger, nicer house easier to afford
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01-18-2016, 02:14 PM
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#10
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Realtor®
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canehdianman
I'm expecting starter houses (<500k) to barely move, but (hoping) houses in the 900k range right now to drop at least 10%.
That would make my planned upgrading to a bigger, nicer house easier to afford
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That is very much what we are seeing right now.
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01-18-2016, 02:30 PM
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#11
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Powerplay Quarterback
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I think it depends on the neighborhood what happens, some neighborhoods did see some quite drastic decreases in value. Monterey Park lost a lot of value on the city assessment and seemed to have a massive drop on list prices. (Was only looking at Monterey Park main and houses not condos). Both seemed to be down >10% in 2015 though.
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01-18-2016, 02:33 PM
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#12
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Calgary
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Yeah, unfortunately I want to live near Sliver (Lake Bonavista or willowpark). Those doesn't seem to be dropping as much as I would hope.
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01-20-2016, 02:17 PM
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#13
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Calgary
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Overall sentiment seems significantly more negative this year than last.
I guess with good reason though.
Although maybe a possible second half recovery will bring us back into the neutral range.
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01-20-2016, 09:33 PM
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#14
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Referee
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Calgary
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I'm living in a place (not mine) with a for sale sign that's been in place since October 1. It's reasonable starter price and the owners have dropped it 35K (more than 10%) since then. Just waiting for it to get sold, and I'll go get my own place, but it's rough sledding.
__________________
You’re just old hate balls.
--Funniest mod complaint in CP history.
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01-24-2016, 09:01 AM
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#15
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Franchise Player
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Girlfriend and I are looking in the $500-550 range and hoping that some of the places currently in the $600-700 range fall a little bit.
The few places we've seen that we have really liked are $625-675 so if those can just fall a bit, they'll be right where we want them.
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01-25-2016, 01:11 PM
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#16
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Crash and Bang Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by malcolmk14
Girlfriend and I are looking in the $500-550 range and hoping that some of the places currently in the $600-700 range fall a little bit.
The few places we've seen that we have really liked are $625-675 so if those can just fall a bit, they'll be right where we want them.
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Same boat, been tracking prices since Aug/Sept.
There is a definite downward trend in that price range, I'd probably say in the ~6% range (hoping for more in 2016).
There was a listing that went from 669k to 629k within a week so waiting for more of that
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01-27-2016, 09:28 PM
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#17
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Calgary
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Realtor1 the cmhc is seeing strong downtrends in the market. Are you seeing the same thing? Is it only for luxury homes? Are you finding people are finding opportunities elsewhere? Are the sit on the sideline people still sitting on the sidelines?
For those sitting on the fence i think a small opportunity was missed when lending rates went up this month. I don't think the bank wants to see those kind of rates again.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...2016-1.3422069
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