07-08-2013, 04:55 PM
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#1
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Austria, NOT Australia
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Signing our College Prospects
Probably deserves its own thread because the prospect camp thread has already derailed enough  the discussions there about Johnny and the "could he walk away like Knight?" fears seemed a bit premature to me, plus I couldn't think of a lot of college players that actually refused to sign. Thought it would be interesting to look at some of the drafts in the past.
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In an attempt to "estimate the risk" of a college player refusing to sign, I decided to take a look at college-bound players taken in the NHL drafts between 2005 and 2009. This seemed like a good time frame - 2005 marks the beginning of the previous CBA and drafts later than 2009 are irrelevant for this exercise due to the four years of NCAA eligibility. I also decided to limit this exercise to the first three rounds of the drafts - mainly for time reasons, but also due to the fact that the number of busts is a lot higher in the later rounds and high-end players with enough options to forfeit a contract are pretty rare once you hit triple-digits. Excluded from the exercise is Scott Winkler, a Stars 3rd rounder from 2009 who sadly passed away last month. Here are the results:
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-------------------------------------------------------
118 players total
88 players signed an ELC with the team they were drafted by = 74,6 %
9 players were traded and signed an ELC with another NHL team = 7,6 %
3 players are still NCAA eligible/rights until August 15 = 2,5 %
2 players used the "Schultz loophole" = 1,7 %
16 players didn't sign with their original teams/"busts" = 13,6 %
As for these 118 players, we can see that 3 out of 4 college prospects signed with the team that drafted them. Please note that except for Bill Sweatt, none of the 16 players that didn't sign or weren't offered an ELC has since signed with an NHL team - most of them have retired, defected to Europe or settled for a journeyman career in the AHL and ECHL.
Even if there will always be a spark of uncertainty until our high-end college prospects actually sign, the numbers would suggest that there is not much to worry about. After slowly forgetting about Erixon, the Corban Knight situation, although beneficial for the Flames, was another reminder to the fans that those things are never certain until the are actually done, but at this point, it also seems premature to worry about such nightmares that are in either case at least a year away. Right now, with a rebuild in its early stages and an arena affected by the horrible floods, the Flames and their fans to have more pressing concerns.
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you can find whole thing in my blog. Feedback and discussions as always appreciated!
Last edited by devo22; 07-08-2013 at 06:04 PM.
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07-08-2013, 05:24 PM
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#2
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Dead Rear, AB
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So what you're saying is people are just slightly overreacting about Gaudreau not signing...gotcha. Hopefully this puts that to rest but for some reason I doubt it.
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07-08-2013, 05:32 PM
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#3
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Abbotsford, BC
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The thing to always keep in mind now more than ever is that the Flames are going to soon be an attractive market for many young players looking for a team who is going on an upswing in the coming years. I think Johnny knows that he could be a core piece of that upswing when he signs.
I'm not worried.
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07-08-2013, 05:36 PM
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#4
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Scoring Winger
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Just wanted to point out that Bill Sweatt was drafted by Chicago 38th in 2007, but waited to become a free agent and signed with Vancouver. You show him drafted by Vancouver originally, which is incorrect.
For college players that waited for UFA you also don't go back far enough to capture Blake Wheeler (5th overall) in 2004, and missed Benn Ferriero 196th overall in 2006, and Blake Kessel 166th overall in 2007. So how many have actually done this?
Blake Wheeler 5th overall 2004 (Phoenix)
Benn Ferriero 196th overall 2006 (Phoenix)
Bill Sweatt 38th overall 2007 (Chicago)
Jason Gregoire 76th overall 2007 (NYI)
Blake Kessel 166th overall 2007 (NYI)
Justin Schultz 43rd overall 2008 (Anaheim)
Anybody else I may have missed?
Yes, the vast majority of college draftees sign with their drafting teams, but it seems like their might be a growing trend to wait and select their own team...
S_C
Last edited by Southern_Canuck; 07-08-2013 at 07:32 PM.
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07-08-2013, 06:08 PM
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#5
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Austria, NOT Australia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Southern_Canuck
Just wanted to point out that Bill Sweatt was drafted by Chicago 38th in 2007, but waited to become a free agent and signed with Vancouver. You show him drafted by Vancouver originally, which is incorrect.
For college players that wiated for UFA you also don't go back far enough to capture Blake Wheeler (5th overall) in 2004, and missed Blake Kessel 166th overall in 2007.
Yes, the vast majority of college draftees sign with their drafting teams, but it seems like their might be a growing trend to wait and select their own team...
S_C
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thanks, I updated the list because of Sweatt. Oversaw that he was originally drafted by the Hawks.
Well, I really didn't want to cover more than five drafts and deeper than in round 3, that was enough work already ... so I didn't go back to 2004 and Wheeler, although he was the first to use the Schultz loophole. I mentioned that in the whole blog post. I remember Kessel, he and Gregoire both walked away from the Isles in the same year ... but yeah, Kessel's not exactly a high-end player (he actually struggled to stay in the AHL this year), so I still wonder if a guy like him ever regrets a move like that.
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07-08-2013, 06:17 PM
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#6
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Is there anyway to easily break this down by players who signed prior to year 4 and players who signed in year 4?
I would like to know what percentage of players who play 4 years in college actually sign with their drafted team and beyond that what percentage of high end players sign with their drafted team.
I am not worried about gaudreau this year but if decides to go back before year four I would be concerned. I would suspect that most top prospects (ie demand from most teams) like Knight, Schultz, Wheeler etc, who come out after 4 years will choose to be a free agent rather than sign with the team that drafted them.
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07-08-2013, 06:31 PM
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#7
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Powerplay Quarterback
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I love how its called the Schultz Loophole, I hope it follows him his entire career.
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07-08-2013, 07:07 PM
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#8
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#1 Goaltender
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I still think the thing about Schultz that many people miss, is that he played a year of high school after being drafted. It created a situation where he was a free agent after his senior year but in advance of the UFA period.
Gaudreau can not use "Schultz Loophole" he would not be a Free Agent until August 15th. So rather than creating a Schultz situation it would create a Knight situation where we would have to trade him for slightly less than Market value to a team of his choosing.
All that being said this conversation is still about 20 months premature, as the NCAA would be vary unforgiving if Gaudreau were to open contract talks with the Flames right now. How stupid the NCAA is, is a completely different conversation.
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07-08-2013, 07:17 PM
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#9
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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I'm one of the "Gaudreau may not sign" camp. I appreciate this thread as its helped alay the fears somewhat.
__________________
Born to lose live to win
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07-08-2013, 07:45 PM
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#10
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Calgary
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I am firmly in the Gaudreau will not sign camp, and this does nothing to reduce my fears. Nothing more than a gut feel based on interviews etc, but if he does sign here, I will be pleasantly surprised.
__________________
GO FLAMES GO
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07-08-2013, 07:49 PM
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#11
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Cleveland, OH (Grew up in Calgary)
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I'm sure that Johnny will sign. If not then i'm sure Feaster will deal him for something, and seeing his upside we could get a nice deal for him. Either way i'm not worried about Johnny. I'm certain he'll be a Flame.
__________________
Just trying to do my best
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07-08-2013, 07:51 PM
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#12
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Calgary, AB
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Very pessimistic this kid sticks around in Calgary. He's a Justin Schultz case for sure
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07-08-2013, 08:06 PM
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#13
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Franchise Player
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For what it's worth, Gaudreau's twitter avatar is him in a flames prospect jersey. If I wanted to play for the Bruins, I may just stick to my BC photos.
__________________
”All you have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to you.”
Rowan Roy W-M - February 15, 2024
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07-08-2013, 08:11 PM
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#14
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Backup Goalie
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Calgary
Exp: 
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As well, from an interview I remember he was very appreciative of the Flames taking a chance on him. Thought it was with mentioning.
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07-08-2013, 08:12 PM
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#15
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Not cheering for losses
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Johnny Gaudreau will be a Flame. 100%. I will make pube bets with any and all takers.
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07-08-2013, 08:12 PM
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#16
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Thunder Bay Ontario
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Maybe he's doing it just to be a "team player". I honestly don't know what to think about him. I have the same feeling as Tyler in that he won't be with the Flames when he gets good (I do think he has what it takes). I hope I'm wrong too but I just don't see him being with the Flames long term
__________________
Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
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07-08-2013, 08:32 PM
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#17
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Abbotsford, BC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by edn88
I am firmly in the Gaudreau will not sign camp, and this does nothing to reduce my fears. Nothing more than a gut feel based on interviews etc, but if he does sign here, I will be pleasantly surprised.
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Here's an article Freeway wrote interviewing both Arnold and Gaudreau:
http://thehockeywriters.com/soaring-...caa-title-win/
Quote:
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“Hopefully we both get a chance to play for the Flames one day, and if we do, hopefully it’ll be together.” said Gaudreau. “It’s really something I’m thankful for, to have another guy on my team drafted to Calgary as well. It’s going to help me down the road.”
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07-08-2013, 08:33 PM
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#18
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Vancouver
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I think if the teams were able to pay the way for their prospects to attend camp, to collect swag, and develop a relationship with the team on and off the ice this wouldn't even be an issue. What a stupid rule.
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07-08-2013, 08:39 PM
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#19
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Underground
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Good analysis.
So really it's about a 1/10 chance that a team that *wanted* to sign their player wasn't able to do so. So on average, people are hyperventilating over nothing.
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07-08-2013, 09:45 PM
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#20
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Montreal
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I think there is a difference in comparing Johnny to most of the others.
Most players who are good enough to be impactful in the NHL do not have to play the full 4 years, instead they turn pro early, and therefore are forced to sign with their original team if they want to play in the bigs.
Those who play all 4 years are for the most part just lucky to be given a chance anywhere and will take what they can get.
But considering Johnny G's size, playing all 4 years is almost a necessity, and unlike most he will graduate and still be a very sought after prospect.
This being the case, Why wouldn't he wait until Aug 15 that year and explore his options?
I am still very hopeful he will sign with us, but to me it is far from a guarantee.
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